4 ms·

As usual, keep in mind that Tesla shares are very forward-looking. Their current quarterly performance was probably priced in around 2018 and at this point the

As usual, keep in mind that Tesla shares are very forward-looking. Their current quarterly performance was probably priced in around 2018 and at this point the price is assuming they'll be the largest car manufacturer (they've said they want to do 20 million units by 2030). Given their relative performance over the last few quarters compared to legacy OEMs, it's not very hard to believe. There's also various other bits priced in already - parts of FSD, utility-scale storage. I don't think the Tesla Bot is priced in yet.

cowmoo728 5y ago
So Tesla is now worth more than Toyota, VW, Mercedes, GM, BMW, Ford, and Exxon combined. That seems like a lot of "looking forward" to me.
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  It is, but TSLA has been like this since 2014-ish? They do well on one product and the market automatically thinks they'll make the next one even better. Also, because it's sentiment-driven, it's very volatile. Nothing wrong with trading on sentiment, as long as you know that's what you're doing.
- Kranar 5y ago
  It depends on how you measure the value of these companies. If you go by market cap then yes Tesla is worth more than all of them combined. The reason for this is that all those other companies you mention have enormous debt, whereas Tesla's debt is fairly negligible. Tesla has 10 billion dollars in debt compared to GM which has over 100 billion dollars in debt or Ford which has over 150 billion dollars in debt.
chasebank 5y ago
If TSLA was 'very forward-looking', it wouldn't be so volatile. People are just gambling on stock value. Nothing more, nothing less.
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  It's precisely what makes it so volatile. People are pricing in things that have not happened because they think they're very likely to happen. Then their opinion changes and the stock tanks. Trading on sentiment is not my cup of tea, btw. If you wanna buy and hold TSLA today, you pretty much have to be convinced that their FSD and TeslaBot plans will become reality.
  - nazgulnarsil 5y ago
    +1 I'm not in TSLA but it's pretty obvious the price reflects bets on things like becoming a utility scale storage provider etc.
- TuringNYC 5y ago
  Most equity investments are gambles on stock value, especially early-stage private tech startups like the ones many of us here work at. We look at the product, exec team, and the marketplace -- and we make an educated gamble.
- epgui 5y ago
  On the very contrary, the more forward-looking something is, the more volatile it is likely to be. Nothing is more difficult to predict than the future after all.

cowmoo728 5y ago

So Tesla is now worth more than Toyota, VW, Mercedes, GM, BMW, Ford, and Exxon combined. That seems like a lot of "looking forward" to me.

martythemaniak 5y ago
It is, but TSLA has been like this since 2014-ish? They do well on one product and the market automatically thinks they'll make the next one even better. Also, because it's sentiment-driven, it's very volatile. Nothing wrong with trading on sentiment, as long as you know that's what you're doing.
Kranar 5y ago
It depends on how you measure the value of these companies. If you go by market cap then yes Tesla is worth more than all of them combined. The reason for this is that all those other companies you mention have enormous debt, whereas Tesla's debt is fairly negligible. Tesla has 10 billion dollars in debt compared to GM which has over 100 billion dollars in debt or Ford which has over 150 billion dollars in debt.

chasebank 5y ago

If TSLA was 'very forward-looking', it wouldn't be so volatile. People are just gambling on stock value. Nothing more, nothing less.

martythemaniak 5y ago
It's precisely what makes it so volatile. People are pricing in things that have not happened because they think they're very likely to happen. Then their opinion changes and the stock tanks. Trading on sentiment is not my cup of tea, btw. If you wanna buy and hold TSLA today, you pretty much have to be convinced that their FSD and TeslaBot plans will become reality.
- nazgulnarsil 5y ago
  +1 I'm not in TSLA but it's pretty obvious the price reflects bets on things like becoming a utility scale storage provider etc.
TuringNYC 5y ago
Most equity investments are gambles on stock value, especially early-stage private tech startups like the ones many of us here work at. We look at the product, exec team, and the marketplace -- and we make an educated gamble.
epgui 5y ago
On the very contrary, the more forward-looking something is, the more volatile it is likely to be. Nothing is more difficult to predict than the future after all.