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Replying to myself as I reread the thread: I found a comment a few pages in about Apple's stock being down $1 on the day. So what if you'd skipped the iPod and

Replying to myself as I reread the thread: I found a comment a few pages in about Apple's stock being down $1 on the day. So what if you'd skipped the iPod and just bought $399 worth of AAPL? According to this site which seems to use real data, it'd be worth... $211k today. http://stockchoker.com/?s=AAPL&d=20011023&a=399 http://stockchoker.com/?s=AAPL&d=20011023&a=399

selectodude 5y ago
But if everybody did that, Apple would be bankrupt because nobody was buying their products ;)
mywittyname 5y ago
I always find it fun to think about what the biggest companies in the world will be in 10, 20, 30 years. There's a good chance that some haven't actually been founded yet, but I'm sure others are household names even now. FWIW, I think media will displace tech on the top spot and Disney will lead the pack in 2040. It's also fun to do with future presidents.
- InitialLastName 5y ago
  Presidents are tricky because (recent circumstances excluded) US voters don't tend to reward people who have been in the public eye for a long time with the presidency. Looking at recent presidents, almost none were in nationally visible political offices 20+ years before their elections (though a number were famous outside of politics). The 20th/21st century presidents, and their situation 20 years before election (it would have taken a hell of an eye even identify any but Biden, Trump and Reagan): - Biden (2000): 27th year in the US Senate - Trump (1996): Tabloid-famous real estate developer - Obama (1988): First year at Harvard Law School - W. Bush (1980): Oil executive son of the VP-elect - Clinton (1972): Arkansas Attorney General-elect - H.W. Bush (1968): 1st-year US House Rep - Reagan (1960): President of the Screen Actors Guild, movie star - Carter (1956): Farmer, son of a briefly seated US House Rep - Ford (never elected, 1954): 5th-year US House Rep - Nixon (1948): 2-year US House Rep - Johnson (as elected VP, 1940): 3-year US House Rep - Kennedy (1941): US Navy Officer, son of Ambassador to the U.K. - Eisenhower (1932): Executive officer to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army - Truman (1924): Former county court judge - F.D. Roosevelt (1913): former 3-year senator, Assistant secretary of the Navy, Ex-president's cousin - Hoover (1909): Successful mining engineer - Coolidge (1900): City Solicitor of Northampton MA - Harding (1900): 1st-year Ohio State Senator - Wilson (1892): Head of the Princeton Political Science department - Taft (1888): Judge in the Superior Court of Cincinnati, son of an ex-cabinet secretary - T. Roosevelt (1880): New college grad, heir to a family fortune.
  - mywittyname 5y ago
    If you look at the set of VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president, you get a pretty good list of candidates. Sure, you'll miss odd-balls like Obama, but he was still a Senator; he just got lucky with timing and probably expected his bid for presidency to occur in like 2020-2024. Future presidents might be someone like, Paul Ryan, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Christie, Antony Blinken.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > If you look at the set of VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president, you get a pretty good list of candidates. Interesting, then that of your list: > Future presidents might be someone like, Paul Ryan, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Christie, Antony Blinken. 3/5 are not covered by ”VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president”.
    - InitialLastName 5y ago
      My point is that the intersection of people who become president and had been VP's, Governers, Senators or previously run for president (20 years before) in the modern era is 2 (out of the last 21 presidents). I didn't go through and look at other major candidates, but the other major candidates didn't get elected; my sense is that the losing candidates, at least recently, have been more experienced politicians (hence, "Americans don't elect people who have been in the public eye for a long time"). Trump, Obama, W. Bush, Clinton, Reagan and Carter all got elected as "outsiders" against clearly more experienced establishment politicians. An interesting thing I noticed going through that list, though, is that a much larger number of presidents came into a more visible position (such as the ones you mentioned) by T-15 years. It seems (and in fact this somewhat mirrors other leadership-oriented career paths) that ~15 years of visibility and experience (usually preceded by a local politics, private sector, or military career to build a network) is roughly optimal for a presidential career path.
    - InitialLastName 5y ago
      I want to add: 10 years out, that selection criteria (VP's, governors, senators, former presidential candidates) would (as far as I can tell) have missed Trump, Obama, W. Bush, Clinton (narrowly), H.W. Bush, Carter, Ford, Kennedy, Eisenhower, Truman, F.D. Roosevelt, Hoover, Coolidge, Harding, Wilson, Taft, and T. Roosevelt, so 17/21 of the people who actually became president.

selectodude 5y ago

But if everybody did that, Apple would be bankrupt because nobody was buying their products ;)

mywittyname 5y ago

I always find it fun to think about what the biggest companies in the world will be in 10, 20, 30 years. There's a good chance that some haven't actually been founded yet, but I'm sure others are household names even now. FWIW, I think media will displace tech on the top spot and Disney will lead the pack in 2040. It's also fun to do with future presidents.

InitialLastName 5y ago
Presidents are tricky because (recent circumstances excluded) US voters don't tend to reward people who have been in the public eye for a long time with the presidency. Looking at recent presidents, almost none were in nationally visible political offices 20+ years before their elections (though a number were famous outside of politics). The 20th/21st century presidents, and their situation 20 years before election (it would have taken a hell of an eye even identify any but Biden, Trump and Reagan): - Biden (2000): 27th year in the US Senate - Trump (1996): Tabloid-famous real estate developer - Obama (1988): First year at Harvard Law School - W. Bush (1980): Oil executive son of the VP-elect - Clinton (1972): Arkansas Attorney General-elect - H.W. Bush (1968): 1st-year US House Rep - Reagan (1960): President of the Screen Actors Guild, movie star - Carter (1956): Farmer, son of a briefly seated US House Rep - Ford (never elected, 1954): 5th-year US House Rep - Nixon (1948): 2-year US House Rep - Johnson (as elected VP, 1940): 3-year US House Rep - Kennedy (1941): US Navy Officer, son of Ambassador to the U.K. - Eisenhower (1932): Executive officer to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army - Truman (1924): Former county court judge - F.D. Roosevelt (1913): former 3-year senator, Assistant secretary of the Navy, Ex-president's cousin - Hoover (1909): Successful mining engineer - Coolidge (1900): City Solicitor of Northampton MA - Harding (1900): 1st-year Ohio State Senator - Wilson (1892): Head of the Princeton Political Science department - Taft (1888): Judge in the Superior Court of Cincinnati, son of an ex-cabinet secretary - T. Roosevelt (1880): New college grad, heir to a family fortune.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  If you look at the set of VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president, you get a pretty good list of candidates. Sure, you'll miss odd-balls like Obama, but he was still a Senator; he just got lucky with timing and probably expected his bid for presidency to occur in like 2020-2024. Future presidents might be someone like, Paul Ryan, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Christie, Antony Blinken.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > If you look at the set of VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president, you get a pretty good list of candidates. Interesting, then that of your list: > Future presidents might be someone like, Paul Ryan, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Christie, Antony Blinken. 3/5 are not covered by ”VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president”.
  - InitialLastName 5y ago
    My point is that the intersection of people who become president and had been VP's, Governers, Senators or previously run for president (20 years before) in the modern era is 2 (out of the last 21 presidents). I didn't go through and look at other major candidates, but the other major candidates didn't get elected; my sense is that the losing candidates, at least recently, have been more experienced politicians (hence, "Americans don't elect people who have been in the public eye for a long time"). Trump, Obama, W. Bush, Clinton, Reagan and Carter all got elected as "outsiders" against clearly more experienced establishment politicians. An interesting thing I noticed going through that list, though, is that a much larger number of presidents came into a more visible position (such as the ones you mentioned) by T-15 years. It seems (and in fact this somewhat mirrors other leadership-oriented career paths) that ~15 years of visibility and experience (usually preceded by a local politics, private sector, or military career to build a network) is roughly optimal for a presidential career path.
  - InitialLastName 5y ago
    I want to add: 10 years out, that selection criteria (VP's, governors, senators, former presidential candidates) would (as far as I can tell) have missed Trump, Obama, W. Bush, Clinton (narrowly), H.W. Bush, Carter, Ford, Kennedy, Eisenhower, Truman, F.D. Roosevelt, Hoover, Coolidge, Harding, Wilson, Taft, and T. Roosevelt, so 17/21 of the people who actually became president.