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Servicing and repairing electric cars is not going to be in demand as much as repairing ICE cars ever was. E.g. a lot of first generation Nissan Leafs are mostl

Servicing and repairing electric cars is not going to be in demand as much as repairing ICE cars ever was. E.g. a lot of first generation Nissan Leafs are mostly still driving around on their first battery pack. Some of them have gotten life extensions with a battery pack replacement that is better than what they shipped with. They might still be doing shopping runs 20 years down the line. There is just very little that goes wrong with these things. Most maintenance is basically going to be replacing tires, topping up some fluids (e.g. windscreen wipers), etc. Battery replacements are sometimes needed of course but mostly not until well into 5 digit mileage. Quite a few manufacturers give you 8 years/100K miles warranty (whichever comes first) on the drive train. The reason is that they mostly only start failing long after that. Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. There are quite a few shops already specializing in salvaging electrical drive trains and repurposing them for ICE conversions of e.g. classical vehicles. Not an impossible skill to learn. But indeed very different from servicing the types of things that fail on ICE cars which have lots of moving parts and complex systems.

hoseja 5y ago
Until brilliant engineers find novel ways to make the drivetrain so cheap it breaks down sooner.
lmilcin 5y ago
You are probably one of minority who enjoys having financial freedom to buy a new car and replace it after couple of years. A lot of people just don't have finances and will be buying second hand cars and will generally try to extend the life of it for as long as it is possible. A Tesla here in Poland costs as much as a small flat in a city center. Half of population does not have income to buy their own flat, let alone an electric car. That half of population currently buys cars that are are about 10 to 50 times cheaper because they have no value to people who have any possibility of buying a new car. A Tesla might be more reliable for longer, but it will eventually reach that part of market.
- KptMarchewa 5y ago
  >A Tesla here in Poland costs as much as a small flat in a city center. Any links for those 200k flats in city centers?
  - lmilcin 5y ago
    > Any links for those 200k flats in city centers? You could have done the homework yourself (seeing that your name is most likely Polish) but I will humor you anyway. https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferty/sprzedaz/mieszkanie/cala-polska?priceMax=200000 https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferty/sprzedaz/mieszkanie/cala-pol... There is a bunch of flats that are available at that price. An example from first results page: 189k PLN, 2 rooms, 38 square meters (400 sq ft), Sosnowiec city (200k population) strict center: https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferta/sosnowiec-centrum-dwa-pokoje-1-pietro-ID4d5Xd https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferta/sosnowiec-centrum-dwa-pokoje... This one site lists 12 THOUSAND current ads for flats for sale under 200k PLN but I assume significant portion is mislabeled or duplicate or not in a city center. There is no way to filter for city centers but there is half a dozen offers on first couple of pages. Still, there is a lot of reasonable flats in that price range. Of course you will have hard time finding anything large and forget about luxurious, but this is reality people with below average salaries live in.
    - KptMarchewa 5y ago
      "Cała Polska" here isn't "city centres" outside of few depressed cities like Sosnowiec. You can't seriously talk about cities and include ads for Gryfów Śląski. If you look at actual cities, then you might find ruins, mislabels, 17m^2 "apartments" and tons of "Zapytaj o cenę".
sandworm101 5y ago
>> Most maintenance is basically going to be replacing tires, topping up some fluids The only think that might be any different is the engine/fuel system. It still has a drivetrain. It has plenty of bearings, rods, suspension and brake elements that need exactly as much servicing as in any other vehicle. Go to any general mechanic shop (not a dedicated engine/trans facility). They are working on suspension. They are replacing broken broken glass/plastic bits and pieces. They are chasing electrical gremlins (intermittent faults). They are fixing fluid leaks. None of that is anything to do with the type of engine under the hood.
- pvaldes 5y ago
  > chasing electrical gremlins Can't think in a better description for this. Thanks for this jewel.
- MayeulC 5y ago
  > brake elements that need exactly as much servicing Brakes are generally used a lot less thanks to regenerative braking (kind of like trucks use eddy current brakes to lessen wear on mechanical parts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_current_brake https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_current_brake https://www.klamretarder.com/en/retarders/truck-brakes-cfk https://www.klamretarder.com/en/retarders/truck-brakes-cfk ). > They are fixing fluid leaks There is also much less fluids circulating (some cars, not all, use liquid-cooled batteries and engines; add windshield wipers and that's about it). So less fluids to worry about. There is just a few orders of magnitude less mechanical parts that can wear out and require servicing. Suspension, tires and body work is still required, of course. There will probably be maintenance needs on auxiliary systems like the in-car entertainment system or headlights. However, most of the maintenance work on regular cars is related to the combustion engine: timing belt changes, oil changes, gearbox issues, brakes, exhaust, differential, shaft, fuel pump, air, fuel and oil filters, spark plugs, starter, lead battery. A whole class of issues is avoided (timing belt failure, running without oil or coolant, inadequate fuel). Generally, control electronics should also be more integrated and prevent major (expensive) failures.
  - lelanthran 5y ago
rsj_hn 5y ago
> Servicing and repairing electric cars is not going to be in demand as much as repairing ICE cars ever was. Let's test this theory with some data. From 2016[1]: "Last year, according to a Reuters analysis of data provided in the company’s annual report, Tesla spent $1,043 per vehicle on actual repairs and set aside $2,036 in warranty accruals to cover future repairs on the vehicles it sold in 2015. It trimmed warranty expenses by 17 percent from 2014 and cut warranty accruals by 34 percent. Meanwhile, GM spent just $400 last year for every vehicle it sold on warranty repairs and set aside $332 for future work. Ford spent $429 per vehicle and set aside $308. Daimler spent $970 per vehicle and set aside $1,294." Let's fast forward to 2020[2]: " in 2020, GM accrued just over $3.4 billion and sold just over 6.8 million vehicles, so its accrual per vehicle was just under $500[...] in 2020, Tesla accrued only 1.3 times as much per vehicle as Ford, and only 2.5 as much as GM. It's still in third place, but remember, this metric is based on what a company believes will happen." So Tesla is certainly setting aside more for warranty repairs than what would be needed for topping up fluids. Now what could possibly require a repair in an EV, given that the drivetrain is so much simpler? Here's Car and Driver's road test[3]: "One of the pitches we hear often on the switch to EV ownership is that electric vehicles are cheaper to maintain. But, as we close in on 40,000 miles in a Tesla Model 3, the actual savings in service costs is turning out to be quite minimal."[3] And loading the car up with complex electronics also creates repair pain points: "Tesla has been ordered to recall roughly 159,000 vehicles to fix a problem in the Media Control Unit.[...] Many vehicle controls in a Tesla are accessed via touch screen, and the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) began an investigation after over 500 complaints were filed about the issue.[...] Once its onboard NAND fails, the touch screen stops working, freezing the end-user out of climate controls and from using the rear backup camera. It also is said to impact “audible chimes related to ADAS, Autopilot, and turn signals.”[4] [1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-warranty/high-warranty-costs-reflect-teslas-struggle-with-quality-idUSKCN0XO1M3 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-warranty/high-warra... [2]https://www.warrantyweek.com/archive/ww20210218.html https://www.warrantyweek.com/archive/ww20210218.html [3]https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30209598/2019-tesla-model-3-reliability-maintenance/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30209598/2019-tesla-mo... [4]https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/319170-tesla-ordered-to-recall-150k-vehicles-to-repair-memory-failures https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/319170-tesla-ordered-to-...
TheSpiceIsLife 5y ago
> Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. Why would this be so? Removing and replacing parts shouldn't need the people who designed the parts to be present. Serious work on ICE drive train don't need mechanical engineers.
lelanthran 5y ago
> Most maintenance is basically going to be replacing tires, topping up some fluids (e.g. windscreen wipers), etc. You don't know much about cars, do you? Other than oil changes, filters and plugs, what exactly do you think needs constant maintenance on an on internal combustion engine? As far as reliability goes, in the cars I've owned (+300000km on a single car sometimes) none had needed ICE-specific repairs. The things that break the most in an ICE vehicle are still present on the EV (drivetrain problems, coolant system problems, electrical problems). I want an EV too, but I am under no illusion that my maintenance work and repair work is going to drop significantly. In fact, it might go up initially (new things to learn about the EV, for example the software/hardware diagnostic tools needed are probably different to what I am used to now).
- blueflow 5y ago
  > drivetrain problems, coolant system problems, electrical problems This, and the suspension.
- yholio 5y ago
  My 200.000 km car had absolutely no defects related to the ICE, if something broke it was with the steering, suspension, air-conditioner, electric etc. However, that was because the immense amount of preventive maintenance I did to keep the engine in its operating parameters: - oil swap, fuel, oil and air filter change every 20.000km - timing belt change every 80.000km, that involves changing all the related pulleys and an additional belt - coolant refresh and preventive replacement of the coolant pump, to preempt a very nasty silent degradation by insuficient cooling - cleanup of the exhaust gas recirculation valve and sensors, which tend to gunk up with modern diesels - clutch-related maintenance (disk replacement and transmission fluid swap) that an equivalent electric (not a Tesla) car will not need - mandatory emissions tests and checks - which I pay So yes, the defects will still happen on electric cars, but you take away the bread and butter of any mechanic shop - maintenance of the ICE (and to a significant extent, brakes too).
LinuxBender 5y ago
Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. EE's are exceedingly rare in most blue collar industries that work on substantially more complex electrical systems than EV's. Most folks in this industry go to trade schools or are sponsored by a company to learn on the job. How this translates to Tesla's remains to be seen. AFAIK you have to take your Tesla back to the dealership for most things, certainly for any warranty work. I would expect at some point there to be a short class and certification that mechanics attend at Tesla. When Tesla is big enough I would expect that to evolve to some third party company that certifies mechanics. All of this assumes that Tesla continues to grow towards the size and scale of any of the current automobile manufacturers.
gameswithgo 5y ago
you don’t need an EE for serious work. you just train people for specific jobs. swap a motherboard, swap a motor, repair a battery module. none of it is a big deal if manufacturers don’t act like apple and keep parts and schematics secret.
bityard 5y ago
> They might still be doing shopping runs 20 years down the line. Not in the northeast or midwest US. Here in the rust belt, the only cars that make it to voting age were either rarely driven, or never driven in the winter. The frame and suspension components literally rust away into nothing due to a high-salt diet here. You can replace the suspension components when they die (not cheap) but you can't do much about the frame. The underbody coatings that dealerships like to sell as an upcharge actually hasten the frame's demise. ICE engineering has gotten amazingly good over the last few decades, to the point that engine failures under 150k miles are quite rare unless basic maintenance has been neglected. One auto shop owner I know of says he makes the majority of his money on brake jobs, tires, and suspension work. He says he would be just fine if all cars were switched to electric overnight. So while it's undeniable that electric cars are more efficient and will eventually win out over ICE for all passenger vehicles, I'm not particularly convinced that they will be either easier to maintain or any longer than our current cars. Longevity can only be achieved by the manufacturers actually designing their frames and bodies to be at least moderately rust-proof, but of course they have several strong incentives not to do that.
mikewarot 5y ago
>Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. There's a certain bias here towards indiscriminate use of the title Engineer. The title, when combined with the prefix Electrical implies actual professional licensure by the State. These are very skilled people, who I wouldn't let anywhere near an actual repair environment. You really want an electronics Technician, who actually knows how things work in the real world. Engineers quite often are "book smart", and as long as they are in their specialty, quite valuable folks. Left to their own devices, on the other hand, they tend to be surprised when things blow up because they didn't understand that red wires are positive. (I saw it happen) Any new technology has new hazards. I can imagine that quite a few buildings were blown up or set ablaze when automobiles and gasoline fumes combined with open fires for heating. Over time, people figure it out. Quite a few people have been dealing with the combination of high current and high voltage for decades, ham radio operators, the also had the hazard of high frequency RF which does odd things, and yet most of them survived. ;-)

hoseja 5y ago

Until brilliant engineers find novel ways to make the drivetrain so cheap it breaks down sooner.

lmilcin 5y ago

You are probably one of minority who enjoys having financial freedom to buy a new car and replace it after couple of years. A lot of people just don't have finances and will be buying second hand cars and will generally try to extend the life of it for as long as it is possible. A Tesla here in Poland costs as much as a small flat in a city center. Half of population does not have income to buy their own flat, let alone an electric car. That half of population currently buys cars that are are about 10 to 50 times cheaper because they have no value to people who have any possibility of buying a new car. A Tesla might be more reliable for longer, but it will eventually reach that part of market.

KptMarchewa 5y ago
>A Tesla here in Poland costs as much as a small flat in a city center. Any links for those 200k flats in city centers?
- lmilcin 5y ago
  > Any links for those 200k flats in city centers? You could have done the homework yourself (seeing that your name is most likely Polish) but I will humor you anyway. https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferty/sprzedaz/mieszkanie/cala-polska?priceMax=200000 https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferty/sprzedaz/mieszkanie/cala-pol... There is a bunch of flats that are available at that price. An example from first results page: 189k PLN, 2 rooms, 38 square meters (400 sq ft), Sosnowiec city (200k population) strict center: https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferta/sosnowiec-centrum-dwa-pokoje-1-pietro-ID4d5Xd https://www.otodom.pl/pl/oferta/sosnowiec-centrum-dwa-pokoje... This one site lists 12 THOUSAND current ads for flats for sale under 200k PLN but I assume significant portion is mislabeled or duplicate or not in a city center. There is no way to filter for city centers but there is half a dozen offers on first couple of pages. Still, there is a lot of reasonable flats in that price range. Of course you will have hard time finding anything large and forget about luxurious, but this is reality people with below average salaries live in.
  - KptMarchewa 5y ago
    "Cała Polska" here isn't "city centres" outside of few depressed cities like Sosnowiec. You can't seriously talk about cities and include ads for Gryfów Śląski. If you look at actual cities, then you might find ruins, mislabels, 17m^2 "apartments" and tons of "Zapytaj o cenę".

sandworm101 5y ago

>> Most maintenance is basically going to be replacing tires, topping up some fluids The only think that might be any different is the engine/fuel system. It still has a drivetrain. It has plenty of bearings, rods, suspension and brake elements that need exactly as much servicing as in any other vehicle. Go to any general mechanic shop (not a dedicated engine/trans facility). They are working on suspension. They are replacing broken broken glass/plastic bits and pieces. They are chasing electrical gremlins (intermittent faults). They are fixing fluid leaks. None of that is anything to do with the type of engine under the hood.

pvaldes 5y ago
> chasing electrical gremlins Can't think in a better description for this. Thanks for this jewel.
MayeulC 5y ago
> brake elements that need exactly as much servicing Brakes are generally used a lot less thanks to regenerative braking (kind of like trucks use eddy current brakes to lessen wear on mechanical parts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_current_brake https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_current_brake https://www.klamretarder.com/en/retarders/truck-brakes-cfk https://www.klamretarder.com/en/retarders/truck-brakes-cfk ). > They are fixing fluid leaks There is also much less fluids circulating (some cars, not all, use liquid-cooled batteries and engines; add windshield wipers and that's about it). So less fluids to worry about. There is just a few orders of magnitude less mechanical parts that can wear out and require servicing. Suspension, tires and body work is still required, of course. There will probably be maintenance needs on auxiliary systems like the in-car entertainment system or headlights. However, most of the maintenance work on regular cars is related to the combustion engine: timing belt changes, oil changes, gearbox issues, brakes, exhaust, differential, shaft, fuel pump, air, fuel and oil filters, spark plugs, starter, lead battery. A whole class of issues is avoided (timing belt failure, running without oil or coolant, inadequate fuel). Generally, control electronics should also be more integrated and prevent major (expensive) failures.
- lelanthran 5y ago

rsj_hn 5y ago

> Servicing and repairing electric cars is not going to be in demand as much as repairing ICE cars ever was. Let's test this theory with some data. From 2016[1]: "Last year, according to a Reuters analysis of data provided in the company’s annual report, Tesla spent $1,043 per vehicle on actual repairs and set aside $2,036 in warranty accruals to cover future repairs on the vehicles it sold in 2015. It trimmed warranty expenses by 17 percent from 2014 and cut warranty accruals by 34 percent. Meanwhile, GM spent just $400 last year for every vehicle it sold on warranty repairs and set aside $332 for future work. Ford spent $429 per vehicle and set aside $308. Daimler spent $970 per vehicle and set aside $1,294." Let's fast forward to 2020[2]: " in 2020, GM accrued just over $3.4 billion and sold just over 6.8 million vehicles, so its accrual per vehicle was just under $500[...] in 2020, Tesla accrued only 1.3 times as much per vehicle as Ford, and only 2.5 as much as GM. It's still in third place, but remember, this metric is based on what a company believes will happen." So Tesla is certainly setting aside more for warranty repairs than what would be needed for topping up fluids. Now what could possibly require a repair in an EV, given that the drivetrain is so much simpler? Here's Car and Driver's road test[3]: "One of the pitches we hear often on the switch to EV ownership is that electric vehicles are cheaper to maintain. But, as we close in on 40,000 miles in a Tesla Model 3, the actual savings in service costs is turning out to be quite minimal."[3] And loading the car up with complex electronics also creates repair pain points: "Tesla has been ordered to recall roughly 159,000 vehicles to fix a problem in the Media Control Unit.[...] Many vehicle controls in a Tesla are accessed via touch screen, and the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) began an investigation after over 500 complaints were filed about the issue.[...] Once its onboard NAND fails, the touch screen stops working, freezing the end-user out of climate controls and from using the rear backup camera. It also is said to impact “audible chimes related to ADAS, Autopilot, and turn signals.”[4] [1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-warranty/high-warranty-costs-reflect-teslas-struggle-with-quality-idUSKCN0XO1M3 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-warranty/high-warra... [2]https://www.warrantyweek.com/archive/ww20210218.html https://www.warrantyweek.com/archive/ww20210218.html [3]https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30209598/2019-tesla-model-3-reliability-maintenance/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30209598/2019-tesla-mo... [4]https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/319170-tesla-ordered-to-recall-150k-vehicles-to-repair-memory-failures https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/319170-tesla-ordered-to-...

TheSpiceIsLife 5y ago

> Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. Why would this be so? Removing and replacing parts shouldn't need the people who designed the parts to be present. Serious work on ICE drive train don't need mechanical engineers.

lelanthran 5y ago

> Most maintenance is basically going to be replacing tires, topping up some fluids (e.g. windscreen wipers), etc. You don't know much about cars, do you? Other than oil changes, filters and plugs, what exactly do you think needs constant maintenance on an on internal combustion engine? As far as reliability goes, in the cars I've owned (+300000km on a single car sometimes) none had needed ICE-specific repairs. The things that break the most in an ICE vehicle are still present on the EV (drivetrain problems, coolant system problems, electrical problems). I want an EV too, but I am under no illusion that my maintenance work and repair work is going to drop significantly. In fact, it might go up initially (new things to learn about the EV, for example the software/hardware diagnostic tools needed are probably different to what I am used to now).

blueflow 5y ago
> drivetrain problems, coolant system problems, electrical problems This, and the suspension.
yholio 5y ago
My 200.000 km car had absolutely no defects related to the ICE, if something broke it was with the steering, suspension, air-conditioner, electric etc. However, that was because the immense amount of preventive maintenance I did to keep the engine in its operating parameters: - oil swap, fuel, oil and air filter change every 20.000km - timing belt change every 80.000km, that involves changing all the related pulleys and an additional belt - coolant refresh and preventive replacement of the coolant pump, to preempt a very nasty silent degradation by insuficient cooling - cleanup of the exhaust gas recirculation valve and sensors, which tend to gunk up with modern diesels - clutch-related maintenance (disk replacement and transmission fluid swap) that an equivalent electric (not a Tesla) car will not need - mandatory emissions tests and checks - which I pay So yes, the defects will still happen on electric cars, but you take away the bread and butter of any mechanic shop - maintenance of the ICE (and to a significant extent, brakes too).

LinuxBender 5y ago

Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. EE's are exceedingly rare in most blue collar industries that work on substantially more complex electrical systems than EV's. Most folks in this industry go to trade schools or are sponsored by a company to learn on the job. How this translates to Tesla's remains to be seen. AFAIK you have to take your Tesla back to the dealership for most things, certainly for any warranty work. I would expect at some point there to be a short class and certification that mechanics attend at Tesla. When Tesla is big enough I would expect that to evolve to some third party company that certifies mechanics. All of this assumes that Tesla continues to grow towards the size and scale of any of the current automobile manufacturers.

gameswithgo 5y ago

you don’t need an EE for serious work. you just train people for specific jobs. swap a motherboard, swap a motor, repair a battery module. none of it is a big deal if manufacturers don’t act like apple and keep parts and schematics secret.

bityard 5y ago

> They might still be doing shopping runs 20 years down the line. Not in the northeast or midwest US. Here in the rust belt, the only cars that make it to voting age were either rarely driven, or never driven in the winter. The frame and suspension components literally rust away into nothing due to a high-salt diet here. You can replace the suspension components when they die (not cheap) but you can't do much about the frame. The underbody coatings that dealerships like to sell as an upcharge actually hasten the frame's demise. ICE engineering has gotten amazingly good over the last few decades, to the point that engine failures under 150k miles are quite rare unless basic maintenance has been neglected. One auto shop owner I know of says he makes the majority of his money on brake jobs, tires, and suspension work. He says he would be just fine if all cars were switched to electric overnight. So while it's undeniable that electric cars are more efficient and will eventually win out over ICE for all passenger vehicles, I'm not particularly convinced that they will be either easier to maintain or any longer than our current cars. Longevity can only be achieved by the manufacturers actually designing their frames and bodies to be at least moderately rust-proof, but of course they have several strong incentives not to do that.

mikewarot 5y ago

>Of course any kind of serious work on an electrical drive train is going to need an electrical engineer. There's a certain bias here towards indiscriminate use of the title Engineer. The title, when combined with the prefix Electrical implies actual professional licensure by the State. These are very skilled people, who I wouldn't let anywhere near an actual repair environment. You really want an electronics Technician, who actually knows how things work in the real world. Engineers quite often are "book smart", and as long as they are in their specialty, quite valuable folks. Left to their own devices, on the other hand, they tend to be surprised when things blow up because they didn't understand that red wires are positive. (I saw it happen) Any new technology has new hazards. I can imagine that quite a few buildings were blown up or set ablaze when automobiles and gasoline fumes combined with open fires for heating. Over time, people figure it out. Quite a few people have been dealing with the combination of high current and high voltage for decades, ham radio operators, the also had the hazard of high frequency RF which does odd things, and yet most of them survived. ;-)