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Correction: $10k to be a beta tester on a technology that's worth $100k or more per car when perfected. I'd also like to point out that you can get it through

Correction: $10k to be a beta tester on a technology that's worth $100k or more per car when perfected. I'd also like to point out that you can get it through a subscription for $99/month if you already have Enhanced Autopilot ($199/month if not).

akerl_ 5y ago
I bought FSD, but I’m really confused by the idea that it would be worth $100k when perfected. What’s the math look like on that?
- maxharris 5y ago
  This is from 2019, and they say a robotaxi could make an owner around $30k in a year. https://medium.com/swlh/30-000-from-a-tesla-robotaxi-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds-dafba4c6923c https://medium.com/swlh/30-000-from-a-tesla-robotaxi-not-as-...
  - akerl_ 5y ago
    As a rule, I don’t trust vendor estimates for amount of savings/revenue their product will cause :D
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    What, those robotaxis that would "for sure" happen by the end of 2020 but somehow, mysteriously, didn't: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil... How many units of belief do you have left in the true believer tank?
- phire 5y ago
  Probably some optimistic estimates involving being able to send your car out to make money by doing self-driving Uber while you aren't using it.
  - MuffinFlavored 5y ago
    because all Uber passengers are good honest people and will surely not take advantage of an unmanned vehicle
- 01100011 5y ago
  Especially when, in most areas, you could literally pay a full time driver for $100k a year. Granted, I suppose your Tesla could drive for 24x7 hours a week minus charging time, but I don't think it would hold up very well in those conditions. I really want to like Tesla, but the wacko things coming from the mouths of Musk and Tesla fanboys make it so difficult.
  - akerl_ 5y ago
    Yea. I <3 my Model 3, I have a reservation in for a CyberTruck, but the idea that a completed FSD is valued at $100k is almost as crazy as the idea that we’ll see a completed FSD within the next decade.
- kjksf 5y ago
  There are multiple ways to arrive at that. Here's one version of the napkin math. According to AAA average cost of owning a car in US is $8k per year. Average driving in US is 12k miles per year. A $25k robotaxi with 1 million mile battery can provide the service for 10 cents per mile. That's $8k of value delivered for $1.2k. Let's round it up: $8k - $2k is $6k of profit per year. This is to replace a single car which is, on average, 2 hours of driving per year. So assume 8 hours of "paid" driving gives us $6 * 4 = $24 k of profit per year. You can plug your own assumptions. I think those are pretty conservative but let's round it down to $10k a year profit. At 10 years per car that's $100k profit from FSD software.
  - akerl_ 5y ago
    So I think the confusion to my mind is the following: 1. I didn’t buy my car to have it drive around on its own working a day job 2. I don’t want to absorb the insurance / maintenance hit of having my car be a road warrior while I’m working 3. My Tesla cost closer to $50k than $25k 4. I do not live in an area where taxis are a major mode of transport I’m sure there are people in the world that could get $100k of value out of a robotaxi. But I don’t think they’re the median or mean purchaser of a self-driving car.
    - cma 5y ago
      The market value would still go up under this fantasy scenario that was actually sold to people, whether you value it personally or not.
  - viraptor 5y ago
    Missing from the calculation: increased maintenance cost from doing the additional miles, damage to the car from luggage and extra (ab)use, repairs after accidents (300-500 per million miles), personal costs from the car not coming back to you when you need it. Reminds me of people getting into Uber driving underestimating the extra costs incurred.
    - Syonyk 5y ago
      > Reminds me of people getting into Uber driving underestimating the extra costs incurred. I thought that was the bulk of their target market - people who don't really do the math on vehicle depreciation and such. I know people who make money doing it, but they're driving very cheap to run cars, and are pretty careful about how they do it, and are spreadsheet-heavy on proving it.
- cronix 5y ago
  There's a bunch of if/then statements that you have to fall into.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
saghm 5y ago
> worth $100k or more per car when perfected I think the burden of proof would be on you for this to be a "when" rather than an "if"

akerl_ 5y ago

I bought FSD, but I’m really confused by the idea that it would be worth $100k when perfected. What’s the math look like on that?

maxharris 5y ago
This is from 2019, and they say a robotaxi could make an owner around $30k in a year. https://medium.com/swlh/30-000-from-a-tesla-robotaxi-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds-dafba4c6923c https://medium.com/swlh/30-000-from-a-tesla-robotaxi-not-as-...
- akerl_ 5y ago
  As a rule, I don’t trust vendor estimates for amount of savings/revenue their product will cause :D
- clouddrover 5y ago
  What, those robotaxis that would "for sure" happen by the end of 2020 but somehow, mysteriously, didn't: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil... How many units of belief do you have left in the true believer tank?
phire 5y ago
Probably some optimistic estimates involving being able to send your car out to make money by doing self-driving Uber while you aren't using it.
- MuffinFlavored 5y ago
  because all Uber passengers are good honest people and will surely not take advantage of an unmanned vehicle
01100011 5y ago
Especially when, in most areas, you could literally pay a full time driver for $100k a year. Granted, I suppose your Tesla could drive for 24x7 hours a week minus charging time, but I don't think it would hold up very well in those conditions. I really want to like Tesla, but the wacko things coming from the mouths of Musk and Tesla fanboys make it so difficult.
- akerl_ 5y ago
  Yea. I <3 my Model 3, I have a reservation in for a CyberTruck, but the idea that a completed FSD is valued at $100k is almost as crazy as the idea that we’ll see a completed FSD within the next decade.
kjksf 5y ago
There are multiple ways to arrive at that. Here's one version of the napkin math. According to AAA average cost of owning a car in US is $8k per year. Average driving in US is 12k miles per year. A $25k robotaxi with 1 million mile battery can provide the service for 10 cents per mile. That's $8k of value delivered for $1.2k. Let's round it up: $8k - $2k is $6k of profit per year. This is to replace a single car which is, on average, 2 hours of driving per year. So assume 8 hours of "paid" driving gives us $6 * 4 = $24 k of profit per year. You can plug your own assumptions. I think those are pretty conservative but let's round it down to $10k a year profit. At 10 years per car that's $100k profit from FSD software.
- akerl_ 5y ago
  So I think the confusion to my mind is the following: 1. I didn’t buy my car to have it drive around on its own working a day job 2. I don’t want to absorb the insurance / maintenance hit of having my car be a road warrior while I’m working 3. My Tesla cost closer to $50k than $25k 4. I do not live in an area where taxis are a major mode of transport I’m sure there are people in the world that could get $100k of value out of a robotaxi. But I don’t think they’re the median or mean purchaser of a self-driving car.
  - cma 5y ago
    The market value would still go up under this fantasy scenario that was actually sold to people, whether you value it personally or not.
- viraptor 5y ago
  Missing from the calculation: increased maintenance cost from doing the additional miles, damage to the car from luggage and extra (ab)use, repairs after accidents (300-500 per million miles), personal costs from the car not coming back to you when you need it. Reminds me of people getting into Uber driving underestimating the extra costs incurred.
  - Syonyk 5y ago
    > Reminds me of people getting into Uber driving underestimating the extra costs incurred. I thought that was the bulk of their target market - people who don't really do the math on vehicle depreciation and such. I know people who make money doing it, but they're driving very cheap to run cars, and are pretty careful about how they do it, and are spreadsheet-heavy on proving it.
cronix 5y ago
There's a bunch of if/then statements that you have to fall into.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

saghm 5y ago

> worth $100k or more per car when perfected I think the burden of proof would be on you for this to be a "when" rather than an "if"