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It's not only that north-eastern winters are brutal. There's more to it than that. Yes, NYC housing is very expensive, but that's because Manhattan is the mos
by legutierr 5y ago
It's not only that north-eastern winters are brutal. There's more to it than that.
Yes, NYC housing is very expensive, but that's because Manhattan is the most densely populated island in the world having a population greater than 150,000 people. Yes, you can squeeze a few more people into NYC proper, but there are physical limits that cannot be overcome, and New York is as close to those physical limits as anywhere else in the world.
The New York metro area does not have those same physical limits, and is much more dynamic than California with regards to new construction and real estate sales—at all pricing levels—as a result. Yes, as you get closer to Manhattan things get more expensive. But Manhattan is not the only housing option for people—even for people who don't own a car.
I live and work in a town of ~25,000 people that is connected to Manhattan by rail. In the past few years we have seen several hundred rental units be constructed in the center of the town. This is not atypical. Similar buildings have been going up throughout the region for years (although most affordable options are connected by bus rather than by train).
I have to agree with GP's conclusion that California's problems primarily stem from its tax system—which is objectively ridiculous. If every time you move houses your tax rate resets and suddenly you are paying 10x (or more) in taxes than you did previously, why would you ever sell?
In the NYC metro area, most of the people who in California would be suburban NIMBY types live and work in high-property-tax areas in relatively big homes while they raise their kids and send them to public school (which are well-funded by high property taxes). It is very common that when their kids go to college they sell their homes and move to smaller places (or to, say, Florida). They are incentivized to do this because doing so will lower their tax bill. As a result, the real estate market is very liquid, with most homes turning over every 15 to 30 years.
In California the tax system works in the opposite manner, by disincentivizing sales. Even inherited property isn't sold, because doing so would result in a reduction in the net cash flow that the property can yield. Isn't it the case that most heirs typically sell property they inherit, in order to have access to liquid funds that they can use in a manner that is more consistent with their own personal needs and preferences? Not in California! In California, if you inherit a house, suddenly you are a landlord.
None of this is to say that there isn't political resistance to higher-density housing in the northeast. There certainly is. However, the way that this resistance is typically mobilized is through the use of zoning restrictions. Zoning restrictions can be amended—and have been amended—as the need for housing has grown.
If people are not willing to sell their properties—if the real estate market is not liquid enough in a certain area—then new development will not occur, regardless as to whether or not zoning ordinances are changed. In fact, the primary advocates for zoning changes are often developers who want to build specific projects. If there are enough properties for sale in an area to attract the interest of developers (and capital that legacy owners may not have access to), then it is more likely that there will be effective advocacy on a local level to amend zoning rules that will result in a more profitable use of those properties.
If no one is selling, however, and if no one is buying, then no one has any interest in changing anything with regards to how the land is used.
- shalmanese 5y ago> Yes, you can squeeze a few more people into NYC proper, but there are physical limits that cannot be overcome, and New York is as close to those physical limits as anywhere else in the world. There were more people living in Manhattan in 1920 than 2020 and the average building height was higher then too.
- 1986 5y agoIn 1910 the majority of Manhattan's area was not yet built out, and people in the Lower East Side were living in brutally overcrowded tenements with an average of less than 100sqft per person, that shouldn't be the goal.
- legutierr 5y ago> There were more people living in Manhattan in 1920 than 2020 I didn't know that, but it makes sense, given the immigration and building patterns of the era. There were even more people living in Manhattan in 1910 than in 1920 (over 600,000 more than today). I'm not sure if this does anything except support the point I am making, though. Can more people be squeezed into Manhattan than are currently living there? Sure. You might not even need to bring back the squalid tenement buildings. But isn't the primary reason that there are fewer people living in Manhattan today because they tore down the tenements in order to build office towers? Although only 1.6 million people live in Manhattan, during the work day the population swells to almost 4 million when you account for commuting workers. > and the average building height was higher then too. I am honestly surprised to read this, and I have trouble believing that it is true. Do you have a source for this?
- xtiansimon 5y ago“I have to agree with GP's conclusion that California's problems primarily stem from its tax system” I live on Long Island where there are no property tax controls like California. They’re building ‘luxury’ 1-3 br condos 750k-2,700k . No downward pressure on home costs here. My town has lots of working class families, and many move when their children are grown and they reach retirement, because the taxes are so high. Right when you own your home, and your income is fixed, you’re faced with ever increasing taxes.