4 ms·

> There's indisputable evidence that the vaccination is impacting R. I think you are misusing the word indisputable, since clearly, people are disputing it. >

> There's indisputable evidence that the vaccination is impacting R. I think you are misusing the word indisputable, since clearly, people are disputing it. > While it's true that the accuracy of estimates for R depends on many factors and certainly there have always been some cases flying under the radar (though that has been studied extensively via antibody studies and other means) proxies like the number of people dying, the number of people hospitalized, while controlling for things like vaccinations are accurate enough to detect this. You just listed a number of proxies that are inaccurate, and/or, generally missing. Why? Simply because Covid is highly dangerous to the advanced in age, those that express ACE2, and those with multiple co-morbidities, in particular obese diabetics. For example, a white male 6' 200 lbs with no comorbidities nonsmoker has the following mortality rate by age: 18: 2.1 per 1M 30: 2.1 per 1M 45: 1.6 per 100K 60: 4.3 per 100K 75: 2.2 per 10k 90: 0.7 per 10k So, while covid may move through a retirement community like the Death Angel, across a team of 16 year old soccer players most will be asymptomatic, and a few may appear to have a cold. As someone that has had access to a regional hospital system's covid counts, I can assure you that this is not a disease of the very young and fit. Our surveillance numbers around covid antibodies is incredibly low because it is only a tiny percentage of the population that is getting tested for antibodies. There are more people being tested for active infections, than there are for antibodies. Indisputable this is not.

YZF 5y ago
You're making it sound like the people looking at this are idiots. Of course this is tracked across age groups. Look at the BC data where it's broken down by age. Also are you suggesting that the relative portion of the population in certain age groups has changed dramatically? Because otherwise you can still look at the aggregate as indicators. Sorry if I'm misusing the work indisputable. English is not my mother tongue. Looking at the dictionary I also don't think it means what you think it means. Someone can dispute anything. We could say gravity is indisputable but someone can come and say there's no gravity. People say the earth is flat. Possibly in this day and age nothing is indisputable. From where I stand, given the evidence, the people who say something like "vaccination has no impact on R" are not far from people claiming the earth is flat. I mean maybe the earth is flat. Even the guy who responded to me saying I was wrong then changes his mind on that.
- OrvalWintermute 5y ago
  > From where I stand, given the evidence, the people who say something like "vaccination has no impact on R" are not far from people claiming the earth is flat. I mean maybe the earth is flat. Even the guy who responded to me saying I was wrong then changes his mind on that Judging from the statistics of high vaccination rate countries like Israel vs Sweden,[1] there are a few important questions to respond with such as: Which vaccine, formulated against which variant? Vaccinated When? Against which infectious variant? At what point was herd immunity hit? Overall, it appears as though Sweden's approach was better as they are not having a 3rd wave, they hit herd immunity, because natural immunity > vaccination, they have more durable results against future variants, etc. I'm not disputing whether we should vaccinate some that are old, or have comordibidities, or want to get it. But, pushing a leaky vaccine across a large population is a license to get mutations and cause new variants in a large population. In effect, adapting the virus to target the vaccinated. [1] https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-about-sweden https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-abou...
  - YZF 5y ago
    I agree all these factors matter. But you're not really commenting on the question at hand. But since you dragged me into a different debate, Sweden has 66% of the population vaccinated. So if they did so great on herd immunity why are they vaccinating? Is 66% of their population old and/or with co-morbidity? So clearly the Swedish disagree with the idea that you should only vaccinate the old or those with comorbidity? Are there any good examples of countries that are open, not vaccinating, and are doing well? I honestly lost track of what Sweden has been doing exactly but I think even early on the portrayal that they're just acting normally was wrong, they relied on recommendation rather than enforcement... and I think they did worse than their peers.
  - jl6 5y ago
    > But, pushing a leaky vaccine across a large population is a license to get mutations and cause new variants in a large population. Fact check: vaccines do not cause variants. Citation: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00544-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00544-9 Sense check: most variants of concern emerged in countries prior to mass vaccination. Short version: why would vaccine-induced immunity provide materially different selection pressure to naturally-acquired-via-infection immunity? Neither are 100% effective, and will therefore allow immune-escape mutations through.

YZF 5y ago

You're making it sound like the people looking at this are idiots. Of course this is tracked across age groups. Look at the BC data where it's broken down by age. Also are you suggesting that the relative portion of the population in certain age groups has changed dramatically? Because otherwise you can still look at the aggregate as indicators. Sorry if I'm misusing the work indisputable. English is not my mother tongue. Looking at the dictionary I also don't think it means what you think it means. Someone can dispute anything. We could say gravity is indisputable but someone can come and say there's no gravity. People say the earth is flat. Possibly in this day and age nothing is indisputable. From where I stand, given the evidence, the people who say something like "vaccination has no impact on R" are not far from people claiming the earth is flat. I mean maybe the earth is flat. Even the guy who responded to me saying I was wrong then changes his mind on that.

OrvalWintermute 5y ago
> From where I stand, given the evidence, the people who say something like "vaccination has no impact on R" are not far from people claiming the earth is flat. I mean maybe the earth is flat. Even the guy who responded to me saying I was wrong then changes his mind on that Judging from the statistics of high vaccination rate countries like Israel vs Sweden,[1] there are a few important questions to respond with such as: Which vaccine, formulated against which variant? Vaccinated When? Against which infectious variant? At what point was herd immunity hit? Overall, it appears as though Sweden's approach was better as they are not having a 3rd wave, they hit herd immunity, because natural immunity > vaccination, they have more durable results against future variants, etc. I'm not disputing whether we should vaccinate some that are old, or have comordibidities, or want to get it. But, pushing a leaky vaccine across a large population is a license to get mutations and cause new variants in a large population. In effect, adapting the virus to target the vaccinated. [1] https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-about-sweden https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-abou...
- YZF 5y ago
  I agree all these factors matter. But you're not really commenting on the question at hand. But since you dragged me into a different debate, Sweden has 66% of the population vaccinated. So if they did so great on herd immunity why are they vaccinating? Is 66% of their population old and/or with co-morbidity? So clearly the Swedish disagree with the idea that you should only vaccinate the old or those with comorbidity? Are there any good examples of countries that are open, not vaccinating, and are doing well? I honestly lost track of what Sweden has been doing exactly but I think even early on the portrayal that they're just acting normally was wrong, they relied on recommendation rather than enforcement... and I think they did worse than their peers.
- jl6 5y ago
  > But, pushing a leaky vaccine across a large population is a license to get mutations and cause new variants in a large population. Fact check: vaccines do not cause variants. Citation: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00544-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00544-9 Sense check: most variants of concern emerged in countries prior to mass vaccination. Short version: why would vaccine-induced immunity provide materially different selection pressure to naturally-acquired-via-infection immunity? Neither are 100% effective, and will therefore allow immune-escape mutations through.