4 ms·

Everybody ignores small risks, and people are also remarkably inconsistent in what is a small risk, depending on context and cultural assumptions. Is drinking

Everybody ignores small risks, and people are also remarkably inconsistent in what is a small risk, depending on context and cultural assumptions. Is drinking alcohol an acceptable risk? Drinking and driving? Drinking and boating? Riding a motorcycle? Riding a bicycle? Skydiving? Riding in a small plane? Not getting a yearly flu shot? Going for a walk in the woods where Lyme disease is endemic? Drinking unpasteurized juice or milk? Eating raw eggs? Raw fish? Not wearing a seatbelt? As far as vaccines go, I was happy to get mine when I was allowed to. I wouldn't have liked to be the first, but I wasn't permitted to, and I didn't want to look stupid by getting ill before being vaccinated, so it worked out fine. But if it becomes a thing that everybody is encouraged to get boosters, the fact that I went right out and got the vaccine in the first place doesn't mean I'm necessarily going to automatically get another shot. If there is another big wave, if there is another variant, if half the country has gotten a booster, maybe then. But I'm not taking people seriously who egregiously exaggerate their certainty about uncertain things. I got vaccinated because I was comfortable with the information I had on the risks and benefits, not because I consider it unreasonable to question any recommended medical treatment.

Wowfunhappy 5y ago
> Everybody ignores small risks, and people are also remarkably inconsistent in what is a small risk, depending on context and cultural assumptions. I totally agree with this, and I've made the same argument in the past as a reason to get rid of most social distancing measures (which I think we should do). But I think of risks in terms of tradeoffs. What is the risk-benefit tradeoff of sky diving? Well, for many people, that's a life-changing experience: well worth the risk! What is the risk-benefit tradeoff of not wearing a seat-belt? You're more likely to die in a car crash, in exchange for, I don't know, not fumbling with the buckle for a half a second? This isn't hard, just put on your seat belt. > But if it becomes a thing that everybody is encouraged to get boosters, the fact that I went right out and got the vaccine in the first place doesn't mean I'm necessarily going to automatically get another shot. If there is another big wave, if there is another variant, if half the country has gotten a booster, maybe then. As someone who's in favor of vaccine mandates, I think this is totally reasonable—and I don't think it's going to be a problem for you. While I could certainly be wrong, I don't see the US changing the meaning of "fully vaccinated" until booster shots are widely available and a large majority of the public has them. Just as we didn't start to see vaccine mandates become a thing in earnest until this fall.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  I tend to ask myself "will this enrich my life, or if I die doing it, would I feel really dumb?" Without regard to quantifying risks or benefits precisely. If I was at the proverbial gates of heaven talking to St. Peter, I would want to be able to say I wasn't grossly negligent in whatever sent me there. Meaning I took, not the optimal, but the customary precautions. I'm not sure that I truly understand the concept of comparing risks and benefits. If I do something risky, that's an abstract concept. In fact, either I die or I don't. If I don't, of course it was worth it. But how does that show the benefit was greater than the risk? Any risk that doesn't happen feels the same as any other. I have gone skydiving, and at the time, it seemed like an experience worth having. After the second time, it didn't any more. Part of the thrill, I guess, is the proximity to death if you don't perform the right actions at the right time, and I tend to screw up under pressure. I was conditioned early to always wear my seatbelt in a personal vehicle, but I don't think there is logic to it when I start comparing it to other risks. As a child I didn't wear a belt on the school bus, because nobody else did (or there weren't any). I think I've ridden on city buses that didn't have any, but I also have the impression that accident rates are really low for various reasons. As a freshman in college, I rode in the bed of a pickup truck, even though I was uncomfortable doing it. I prefer to be secure, but peer pressure could override that. When I'm on an airplane, I buckle my belt as instructed, but I think the decrease in risk is probably not logical justification, as the risk is already so low. And I have sometimes ridden motorcycles, so if that's a reasonable thing to do, then why not go unbelted in a car, if you like? I mean, except for, say, being ticketed. Do 3-wheeled vehicles that legally count as motorcycles have belts? I think I've read about airbag devices for motorcycles, which are interesting, but I don't really think they should be mandated and universal like with cars. I would very much like consistency and simplicity in rules in a particular area (like the pandemic), rather than continual murky arguments over what is optimal. I think it's ok to compartmentalize and not try to reconcile with all our other activities. Standing six feet apart and wearing masks in buildings open to the public is simple enough, but it's become complicated over time. Where I live, most businesses seem to have their employees wearing masks, but the customers generally aren't. I too, am required to wear a mask at work. I dislike spending thought on what arbitrary thing to do in daily life. Simple rules that lead to a harmonious daily life are better than obsessing over what is perfect or optimal. That is my belief.

Wowfunhappy 5y ago

> Everybody ignores small risks, and people are also remarkably inconsistent in what is a small risk, depending on context and cultural assumptions. I totally agree with this, and I've made the same argument in the past as a reason to get rid of most social distancing measures (which I think we should do). But I think of risks in terms of tradeoffs. What is the risk-benefit tradeoff of sky diving? Well, for many people, that's a life-changing experience: well worth the risk! What is the risk-benefit tradeoff of not wearing a seat-belt? You're more likely to die in a car crash, in exchange for, I don't know, not fumbling with the buckle for a half a second? This isn't hard, just put on your seat belt. > But if it becomes a thing that everybody is encouraged to get boosters, the fact that I went right out and got the vaccine in the first place doesn't mean I'm necessarily going to automatically get another shot. If there is another big wave, if there is another variant, if half the country has gotten a booster, maybe then. As someone who's in favor of vaccine mandates, I think this is totally reasonable—and I don't think it's going to be a problem for you. While I could certainly be wrong, I don't see the US changing the meaning of "fully vaccinated" until booster shots are widely available and a large majority of the public has them. Just as we didn't start to see vaccine mandates become a thing in earnest until this fall.

perl4ever 5y ago
I tend to ask myself "will this enrich my life, or if I die doing it, would I feel really dumb?" Without regard to quantifying risks or benefits precisely. If I was at the proverbial gates of heaven talking to St. Peter, I would want to be able to say I wasn't grossly negligent in whatever sent me there. Meaning I took, not the optimal, but the customary precautions. I'm not sure that I truly understand the concept of comparing risks and benefits. If I do something risky, that's an abstract concept. In fact, either I die or I don't. If I don't, of course it was worth it. But how does that show the benefit was greater than the risk? Any risk that doesn't happen feels the same as any other. I have gone skydiving, and at the time, it seemed like an experience worth having. After the second time, it didn't any more. Part of the thrill, I guess, is the proximity to death if you don't perform the right actions at the right time, and I tend to screw up under pressure. I was conditioned early to always wear my seatbelt in a personal vehicle, but I don't think there is logic to it when I start comparing it to other risks. As a child I didn't wear a belt on the school bus, because nobody else did (or there weren't any). I think I've ridden on city buses that didn't have any, but I also have the impression that accident rates are really low for various reasons. As a freshman in college, I rode in the bed of a pickup truck, even though I was uncomfortable doing it. I prefer to be secure, but peer pressure could override that. When I'm on an airplane, I buckle my belt as instructed, but I think the decrease in risk is probably not logical justification, as the risk is already so low. And I have sometimes ridden motorcycles, so if that's a reasonable thing to do, then why not go unbelted in a car, if you like? I mean, except for, say, being ticketed. Do 3-wheeled vehicles that legally count as motorcycles have belts? I think I've read about airbag devices for motorcycles, which are interesting, but I don't really think they should be mandated and universal like with cars. I would very much like consistency and simplicity in rules in a particular area (like the pandemic), rather than continual murky arguments over what is optimal. I think it's ok to compartmentalize and not try to reconcile with all our other activities. Standing six feet apart and wearing masks in buildings open to the public is simple enough, but it's become complicated over time. Where I live, most businesses seem to have their employees wearing masks, but the customers generally aren't. I too, am required to wear a mask at work. I dislike spending thought on what arbitrary thing to do in daily life. Simple rules that lead to a harmonious daily life are better than obsessing over what is perfect or optimal. That is my belief.