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> There's indisputable evidence that the vaccination is impacting R > Ofcourse we can't tell anything with certainty in this domain Which one is it? I'm sorr

> There's indisputable evidence that the vaccination is impacting R > Ofcourse we can't tell anything with certainty in this domain Which one is it? I'm sorry - there are issues with nearly all the links and data you've provided, but I don't have the time to go through them with you. I agree with you that the vaccine is very likely impacting R. I don't agree that it is enough to matter yet - we could vaccinate everyone and covid would still spread. The vaccines will keep people from dying. Any more benefit than that is still unclear.

YZF 5y ago
You're contradicting yourself. You're saying you agree with me the vaccine is very likely impacting R yet you're saying it doesn't help. Which one is it? We have lots of places, such as where I live, where the number of deaths and hospitalizations and daily cases is about level. Since you agreed with me vaccinations impact R you can also agree with me that going from 75% vaccinations to 100% vaccinations is going to cause that level trajectory to go down? What is your projection? As to your question "which one is it" there is no conflict. The evidence is indisputable yet there is no certainty. Simply because in this domain there is no certainty. It's not a math proof. It is by far the most likely thing that's happening. I mean maybe aliens are curing people to coincide with the different levels of vaccinations but I've yet to hear some reasonable hypothesis how in place like where I live where seasonality dictates higher rates, restrictions have been relaxed, and there is clear correlation between higher vaccination rates and reduced other metrics (change in new cases/day, hospitalizations, deaths). I think if you disagree with the obvious you should at least offer some other hypothesis supported by some data.
- hackinthebochs 5y ago
  >You're contradicting yourself. You're saying you agree with me the vaccine is very likely impacting R yet you're saying it doesn't help. Which one is it? When it comes to exponential growth, the difference in practice between an exponent of 1.5 vs 2 is negligible.
  - YZF 5y ago
    But the difference between 1.0 and 0.5 is not. Where in the west are we currently seeing 1.5 or 2? Have a look here: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/canada/ https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/canada/

YZF 5y ago

You're contradicting yourself. You're saying you agree with me the vaccine is very likely impacting R yet you're saying it doesn't help. Which one is it? We have lots of places, such as where I live, where the number of deaths and hospitalizations and daily cases is about level. Since you agreed with me vaccinations impact R you can also agree with me that going from 75% vaccinations to 100% vaccinations is going to cause that level trajectory to go down? What is your projection? As to your question "which one is it" there is no conflict. The evidence is indisputable yet there is no certainty. Simply because in this domain there is no certainty. It's not a math proof. It is by far the most likely thing that's happening. I mean maybe aliens are curing people to coincide with the different levels of vaccinations but I've yet to hear some reasonable hypothesis how in place like where I live where seasonality dictates higher rates, restrictions have been relaxed, and there is clear correlation between higher vaccination rates and reduced other metrics (change in new cases/day, hospitalizations, deaths). I think if you disagree with the obvious you should at least offer some other hypothesis supported by some data.

hackinthebochs 5y ago
>You're contradicting yourself. You're saying you agree with me the vaccine is very likely impacting R yet you're saying it doesn't help. Which one is it? When it comes to exponential growth, the difference in practice between an exponent of 1.5 vs 2 is negligible.
- YZF 5y ago
  But the difference between 1.0 and 0.5 is not. Where in the west are we currently seeing 1.5 or 2? Have a look here: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/canada/ https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/canada/