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Cause, if you write "twice as likely" you will have to measure against vaccincation rates. If 1000 people are vaccinated, and 10 get infected, versus 10 unvacci

Cause, if you write "twice as likely" you will have to measure against vaccincation rates. If 1000 people are vaccinated, and 10 get infected, versus 10 unvaccinated with 1 infection: who is more likely?

jstanley 5y ago
In the hypothetical you gave, the unvaccinated is more likely (1/10 versus 1/100). Compare that to the data from the UK vaccine surveillance report, and you'll see the opposite is true in reality (for age ranges 30-39 and above). For example, for age range 30-39, between week 38 and 41 2021, there were 956.7 cases reported per 100,000 among the vaccinated, and 751.1 per 100,000 among the unvaccinated.
- dmitrij 5y ago
  I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure. Anyway: in Germany the numbers are: 4 times more probable for the unvaccinated. I all depends on how people protect themselves, and that is the reason for vaccination passes: less infections, much less symptoms, much much less hospitalisations, almost no deaths in otherwise healthy people under 80 = no lockdowns.
  - jstanley 5y ago
    > I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure. That is exactly how they are separated. What else would "Rates among persons vaccinated with 2 doses (per 100,000)" and "Rates among persons not vaccinated (per 100,000)" mean? Evidently the vaccines in Germany are working more effectively. That's good news!
  - timthorn 5y ago
    The commentary in the report states: "The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns."
rbut 5y ago
The rates per 100,000 already account for this. Refer to the last 2 columns of Table 2.
- dmitrij 5y ago
  Reacted to that here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28968555 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28968555

jstanley 5y ago

In the hypothetical you gave, the unvaccinated is more likely (1/10 versus 1/100). Compare that to the data from the UK vaccine surveillance report, and you'll see the opposite is true in reality (for age ranges 30-39 and above). For example, for age range 30-39, between week 38 and 41 2021, there were 956.7 cases reported per 100,000 among the vaccinated, and 751.1 per 100,000 among the unvaccinated.

dmitrij 5y ago
I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure. Anyway: in Germany the numbers are: 4 times more probable for the unvaccinated. I all depends on how people protect themselves, and that is the reason for vaccination passes: less infections, much less symptoms, much much less hospitalisations, almost no deaths in otherwise healthy people under 80 = no lockdowns.
- jstanley 5y ago
  > I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure. That is exactly how they are separated. What else would "Rates among persons vaccinated with 2 doses (per 100,000)" and "Rates among persons not vaccinated (per 100,000)" mean? Evidently the vaccines in Germany are working more effectively. That's good news!
- timthorn 5y ago
  The commentary in the report states: "The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns."

rbut 5y ago

The rates per 100,000 already account for this. Refer to the last 2 columns of Table 2.

dmitrij 5y ago
Reacted to that here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28968555 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28968555