5 ms·

That is actually partly the point, interdependent economies have stronger incentives to get along and not go to war with each other. It's one of the reasons th

by dgemm 5y ago

That is actually partly the point, interdependent economies have stronger incentives to get along and not go to war with each other. It's one of the reasons the EU exists, for example: https://eeas.europa.eu/archives/delegations/iceland/evropustofa/en/what-would-you-like-to-know/what-would-you-like-to-know/article/why-was-the-eu-created.html https://eeas.europa.eu/archives/delegations/iceland/evropust...

Mountain_Skies 5y ago
That's great for equal powers. When one power is weaker than the other, it's a recipe for exploitation.
- aidenn0 5y ago
  When one power is weaker than the other, the weaker side is gonna suffer in war too
rsj_hn 5y ago
Yeah, I get the theory -- it's not a particularly deep theory -- but does it really work? Consider that when nations go to war, they will bomb the hell out of each other's industries. So if they are willing to risk that when they go to war, why would the loss of mutual trade be enough of a threat to avert war? I don't see how the cost is increased between a bombed out factory that used to trade with you, and a bombed out factor that traded with someone else. Similarly in wars, nations embargo each other and sink each other's shipping, so again not sure why loss of mutual trade makes the cost of war unacceptable, if this higher cost is already acceptable? This reminds me of the Olympic games that were founded at the end of the 19th C in order to promote peace among nations. The theory was that if nations could compete on the field, they wouldn't compete in war. I think that theory turned out to be as robust as the trade-makes-peace theory, which itself did not fare well in WW1. At the same time, the EU has created an enormous amount of resentment and animosity between nations, as Italy and Greece are forced to adopt the same currency as Germany, which hurts their economies but subsidizes the German economy. The Germans, in turn, feel resentful for bailing out the South (by buying up so many assets in the South), apparently not realizing that purchasing all these assets is what allows the trade imbalances to continue. If anything we know that these types of asymmetric cross border capital flows are highly destabilizing, and do not promote peace at all. My guess is what keeps Europe from going to war is that it remains under the US sphere of influence, at least militarily, and so the irritations and rivalries created by the EU do not spill out into war. Basically the domestic populations hate each other much more, but the states themselves are too crippled to act with much autonomy, and so they don't really have the agency to even start a war. They are just left seething, as their capital stock is sold off to their neighbors, but there is nothing they can do about it. This will not end well.
- crubier 5y ago
  Do you live in the EU ? Because I do and all I can say is that clearly the EU is massively reducing the chances of a war. What I’ve seen is: At universities, the Erasmus programme means students of all nationalities study together as friends, just as if they were from different states in the US. In companies, thanks to free circulation and the Euro currency, people from various countries work together as well in the same way, I’ve worked in companies of 25people with 12 nationalities with no problem at all. It would seem absurd for me as a French person (now living in Portugal) to want to bomb Germany for some economics reason, given that I have worked and befriended with dozens of very nice Germans. I could say the same of any European country. I’m not even special and I have friends and ex colleagues in virtually every EU country, from Greece, Poland, Sweden to Ireland Italy, Portugal and others.

by dgemm 5y ago

Mountain_Skies 5y ago

That's great for equal powers. When one power is weaker than the other, it's a recipe for exploitation.

aidenn0 5y ago
When one power is weaker than the other, the weaker side is gonna suffer in war too

rsj_hn 5y ago

Yeah, I get the theory -- it's not a particularly deep theory -- but does it really work? Consider that when nations go to war, they will bomb the hell out of each other's industries. So if they are willing to risk that when they go to war, why would the loss of mutual trade be enough of a threat to avert war? I don't see how the cost is increased between a bombed out factory that used to trade with you, and a bombed out factor that traded with someone else. Similarly in wars, nations embargo each other and sink each other's shipping, so again not sure why loss of mutual trade makes the cost of war unacceptable, if this higher cost is already acceptable? This reminds me of the Olympic games that were founded at the end of the 19th C in order to promote peace among nations. The theory was that if nations could compete on the field, they wouldn't compete in war. I think that theory turned out to be as robust as the trade-makes-peace theory, which itself did not fare well in WW1. At the same time, the EU has created an enormous amount of resentment and animosity between nations, as Italy and Greece are forced to adopt the same currency as Germany, which hurts their economies but subsidizes the German economy. The Germans, in turn, feel resentful for bailing out the South (by buying up so many assets in the South), apparently not realizing that purchasing all these assets is what allows the trade imbalances to continue. If anything we know that these types of asymmetric cross border capital flows are highly destabilizing, and do not promote peace at all. My guess is what keeps Europe from going to war is that it remains under the US sphere of influence, at least militarily, and so the irritations and rivalries created by the EU do not spill out into war. Basically the domestic populations hate each other much more, but the states themselves are too crippled to act with much autonomy, and so they don't really have the agency to even start a war. They are just left seething, as their capital stock is sold off to their neighbors, but there is nothing they can do about it. This will not end well.

crubier 5y ago
Do you live in the EU ? Because I do and all I can say is that clearly the EU is massively reducing the chances of a war. What I’ve seen is: At universities, the Erasmus programme means students of all nationalities study together as friends, just as if they were from different states in the US. In companies, thanks to free circulation and the Euro currency, people from various countries work together as well in the same way, I’ve worked in companies of 25people with 12 nationalities with no problem at all. It would seem absurd for me as a French person (now living in Portugal) to want to bomb Germany for some economics reason, given that I have worked and befriended with dozens of very nice Germans. I could say the same of any European country. I’m not even special and I have friends and ex colleagues in virtually every EU country, from Greece, Poland, Sweden to Ireland Italy, Portugal and others.