3 ms·
> It's important to note that mild inflation is a good thing I'd lightly disagree with this and say that a naturally small but positive interest rate is desira
by anm89 5y ago
> It's important to note that mild inflation is a good thing
I'd lightly disagree with this and say that a naturally small but positive interest rate is desirable but not always good or right. That's different than saying a small but positive interest rate is optimal in ever scenario or regardless of what it takes to make it happen.
We've been playing tricks with interest rates to attain a positive interest for a decade and now bond markets are so drastically distorted that we are having to do increasingly drastic measures to try to get our fix.
I would argue the problem is that for much of that time, mild disinflation was priced into the market clearing rate. And instead of taking our medicine then, we have created an incredibly fragile environment that has the potential to be way more painful than the thing we were trying to prevent.
Cpi is 5 but I'm going to argue 7-8 is a more meaningful number to the average American right now. We can't raise rates but 7-8 sustained is also intolerable. I think our low but positive rates at all costs attitude is going to turn out not to look so clever through the lense of history