I don't think the timing is favorable for China. Based on the papers I've read, China is about 15 years away from having a sufficient amphibious capability need

I don't think the timing is favorable for China. Based on the papers I've read, China is about 15 years away from having a sufficient amphibious capability needed to invade Taiwan. That very likely means a sustained blockade, which will be extremely difficult politically, militarily, and economically. Surely such an invasion would be swiftly followed by harsh sanctions from many of China's trading partners. Considering the systemic risk China is presently baking into their economy by not allowing defaults to occur, what will be the appetite for adventurism of this sort with things unsettled at home? Is Xi willing to risk completely destabilizing China's economy to capture Taiwan? That sounds extremely reckless and unlikely, but stranger things have happened.