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Where can I read that global warming is likely to increase the number of extreme cold events? Is it mentioned by IPCC?

by csee 5y ago

haberman 5y ago
I searched the latest IPCC report with non-expert eyes and it seems to say the opposite: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266
wk_end 5y ago
You can Google "does global warming cause extreme cold". Here are my first results: "This Is Why Global Warming Is Responsible For Freezing Temperatures Across The U.S." (Forbes): https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/01/30/this-is-why-global-warming-is-responsible-for-freezing-temperatures-across-the-usa/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/01/30/this... "Climate change: Arctic warming linked to colder winters" (BBC): https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526 "How global warming can cause Europe's harsh winter weather" (DW) https://www.dw.com/en/cold-winter-global-warming-polar-vortex/a-56534450 https://www.dw.com/en/cold-winter-global-warming-polar-vorte... "Record cold, intense storms and tornadoes amid global warming: Could there be a connection?" (USA Today): https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/17/global-warming-record-cold-intense-storms-tornadoes/6780433002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/17/global...
- haberman 5y ago
  Seems like selection bias to me. You can also Google "does global warming cause warmer winters" and get: "How Warming Winters Are Affecting Everything": https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/803125282/how-warming-winters-are-affecting-everything https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/803125282/how-warming-winters... "5 reasons why your warmer winter is so alarming": https://www.edf.org/blog/2020/02/12/5-reasons-why-your-warmer-winter-so-alarming https://www.edf.org/blog/2020/02/12/5-reasons-why-your-warme... "Winters are warming faster than summers. These US cities could lose weeks of freezing days by 2050." https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/20/18136006/climate-change-warmer-winters https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/20/18136006/c...
  - wk_end 5y ago
    But the subject at hand isn't whether winters are going to be warmer. The topic was extreme weather events. And the question wasn't "is this indisputable gospel" or something, it was "where can I read about this?" Of course I biased towards selecting the links where you could read about it!
  - OrbitRock 5y ago
    Well, the increased variability itself may be a part of the climate change. I’ll give an anecdote. I’m working on a project that tracks the length of the rainy season over time in a certain region. There is no clear trend one way or another, but what does stick out as a super strong and clear trend is that the variability of both extremes occurring is increasing.
- csee 5y ago
  I don't want trash news articles. They establish nothing. Read the first one, it's not good. Want modelling from someone reputable like the IPCC that balances the offsetting forces and quantifies what to expect on net. "50 percent more extreme cold weather events under RCP8.5" Not "This is how a polar vortex works, therefore there will be more cold weather events" (which is obviously faulty logic since that doesn't account for an increasing mean temp, which is why modelling is needed to balance out these offsetting considerations) See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266
  - wk_end 5y ago
    You have to understand, it’s incredibly frustrating to try to have a serious conversation with someone who not only pulls out the intellectually lazy “[citation needed]” trope, but makes no specific demands about what citation is acceptable until after the fact, when they can deem respected news agencies like the BBC or DW as “trash” and demand more citations! Is that Forbes article “trash”? I don’t think so - it’s a clear explainer written for a layperson by someone well-credentialed, and I had no reason to think based on your comment that you were anything but a layperson. Anyway - the next article, from the BBC, is a report on a study published in Science. The study is linked to in the text, it’s called “Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States” if you prefer papers over news articles summarizing them.
    - csee 5y ago
      I was extremely specific in what I was asking for initially. I asked for evidence that the number of extreme cold events is going to be increased. None of the first two articles grapples with that claim. That's why I called them trash. They're trash in the sense that those sources aren't addressing the claim that I initially asked to see a citation for. They outline a mechanism that will lead to more cold spikes but it doesn't address my question of whether on net we are going to see more cold spikes given the offsetting impact of mean warming. I reject the accusation that I'm pulling a "citation needed" trope. The citation I shared above, which more directly addresses what I'm asking and is from more reputable bodies than your citations, says the exact opposite thing to what you're claiming and so what I'm doing is not an example of this trope (which is where someone asks for a citation for a well established fact as a rhetorical device).

Where can I read that global warming is likely to increase the number of extreme cold events? Is it mentioned by IPCC?

by csee 5y ago

Where can I read that global warming is likely to increase the number of extreme cold events? Is it mentioned by IPCC?

I searched the latest IPCC report with non-expert eyes and it seems to say the opposite: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266

wk_end 5y ago

You can Google "does global warming cause extreme cold". Here are my first results: "This Is Why Global Warming Is Responsible For Freezing Temperatures Across The U.S." (Forbes): https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/01/30/this-is-why-global-warming-is-responsible-for-freezing-temperatures-across-the-usa/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/01/30/this... "Climate change: Arctic warming linked to colder winters" (BBC): https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526 "How global warming can cause Europe's harsh winter weather" (DW) https://www.dw.com/en/cold-winter-global-warming-polar-vortex/a-56534450 https://www.dw.com/en/cold-winter-global-warming-polar-vorte... "Record cold, intense storms and tornadoes amid global warming: Could there be a connection?" (USA Today): https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/17/global-warming-record-cold-intense-storms-tornadoes/6780433002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/17/global...

haberman 5y ago
Seems like selection bias to me. You can also Google "does global warming cause warmer winters" and get: "How Warming Winters Are Affecting Everything": https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/803125282/how-warming-winters-are-affecting-everything https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/803125282/how-warming-winters... "5 reasons why your warmer winter is so alarming": https://www.edf.org/blog/2020/02/12/5-reasons-why-your-warmer-winter-so-alarming https://www.edf.org/blog/2020/02/12/5-reasons-why-your-warme... "Winters are warming faster than summers. These US cities could lose weeks of freezing days by 2050." https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/20/18136006/climate-change-warmer-winters https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/20/18136006/c...
- wk_end 5y ago
  But the subject at hand isn't whether winters are going to be warmer. The topic was extreme weather events. And the question wasn't "is this indisputable gospel" or something, it was "where can I read about this?" Of course I biased towards selecting the links where you could read about it!
- OrbitRock 5y ago
  Well, the increased variability itself may be a part of the climate change. I’ll give an anecdote. I’m working on a project that tracks the length of the rainy season over time in a certain region. There is no clear trend one way or another, but what does stick out as a super strong and clear trend is that the variability of both extremes occurring is increasing.
csee 5y ago
I don't want trash news articles. They establish nothing. Read the first one, it's not good. Want modelling from someone reputable like the IPCC that balances the offsetting forces and quantifies what to expect on net. "50 percent more extreme cold weather events under RCP8.5" Not "This is how a polar vortex works, therefore there will be more cold weather events" (which is obviously faulty logic since that doesn't account for an increasing mean temp, which is why modelling is needed to balance out these offsetting considerations) See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266
- wk_end 5y ago
  You have to understand, it’s incredibly frustrating to try to have a serious conversation with someone who not only pulls out the intellectually lazy “[citation needed]” trope, but makes no specific demands about what citation is acceptable until after the fact, when they can deem respected news agencies like the BBC or DW as “trash” and demand more citations! Is that Forbes article “trash”? I don’t think so - it’s a clear explainer written for a layperson by someone well-credentialed, and I had no reason to think based on your comment that you were anything but a layperson. Anyway - the next article, from the BBC, is a report on a study published in Science. The study is linked to in the text, it’s called “Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States” if you prefer papers over news articles summarizing them.
  - csee 5y ago
    I was extremely specific in what I was asking for initially. I asked for evidence that the number of extreme cold events is going to be increased. None of the first two articles grapples with that claim. That's why I called them trash. They're trash in the sense that those sources aren't addressing the claim that I initially asked to see a citation for. They outline a mechanism that will lead to more cold spikes but it doesn't address my question of whether on net we are going to see more cold spikes given the offsetting impact of mean warming. I reject the accusation that I'm pulling a "citation needed" trope. The citation I shared above, which more directly addresses what I'm asking and is from more reputable bodies than your citations, says the exact opposite thing to what you're claiming and so what I'm doing is not an example of this trope (which is where someone asks for a citation for a well established fact as a rhetorical device).