If China annexes Taiwan it will be for reasons that have nothing to do with TSMC. There may be a short term benefit but if they get cut off from ASML (Europe),

If China annexes Taiwan it will be for reasons that have nothing to do with TSMC. There may be a short term benefit but if they get cut off from ASML (Europe), Applied Materials (US), etc. it's going to be tough to keep their machines in service and stay leading edge. And those companies have very deep international supply chains too and may also get sanctioned.