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Yep, that'll likely eventually happen... ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. Which as simonh pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com

by irdc 5y ago

Yep, that'll likely eventually happen... ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. Which as simonh pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591) is exactly what the CCP does not want. Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, I don't think they'd take the chance regarding Taiwan.

dragontamer 5y ago
> ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. If China wins Taiwan vs the USA, there wouldn't be any unrest or instability. The Chinese people would be proud of their accomplishment, and the rise of China as a military power. Like... what "instability" occurred from Russia's annexation of Crimea? None what so ever.
sbierwagen 5y ago
>Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, They do, and that's the problem. The shot clock is ticking down quickly: fertility rate in PRC just hit 1.3 births per woman. Total population is projected to halve by the end of the century. The current cohort of military-age males is shrinking, and there won't be another one to replace it. The PLA will never be stronger than it is today. If Xi wants to take Taiwan, he has to do it now, because he's not going to get another chance. PRC manufacturing output is cratering due to power shortages and the global shipping and semiconductor convulsion, so the economy is going to get clobbered anyway. They're already doing recon flights through the ADIZ and running freedom of navigation naval patrols. If there's going to be a Taiwan annexation, it'll happen in the next 12 months. The US Navy is hapless and the Taiwanese army is supine. Evergrande is collapsing and there's already a wide array of tariffs and sanctions against PRC leadership. They accidentally caused a global pandemic and shrugged off any political ramifications. They've already taken half a dozen hits this year and survived. Why not take another?

by irdc 5y ago

dragontamer 5y ago

> ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. If China wins Taiwan vs the USA, there wouldn't be any unrest or instability. The Chinese people would be proud of their accomplishment, and the rise of China as a military power. Like... what "instability" occurred from Russia's annexation of Crimea? None what so ever.

sbierwagen 5y ago

>Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, They do, and that's the problem. The shot clock is ticking down quickly: fertility rate in PRC just hit 1.3 births per woman. Total population is projected to halve by the end of the century. The current cohort of military-age males is shrinking, and there won't be another one to replace it. The PLA will never be stronger than it is today. If Xi wants to take Taiwan, he has to do it now, because he's not going to get another chance. PRC manufacturing output is cratering due to power shortages and the global shipping and semiconductor convulsion, so the economy is going to get clobbered anyway. They're already doing recon flights through the ADIZ and running freedom of navigation naval patrols. If there's going to be a Taiwan annexation, it'll happen in the next 12 months. The US Navy is hapless and the Taiwanese army is supine. Evergrande is collapsing and there's already a wide array of tariffs and sanctions against PRC leadership. They accidentally caused a global pandemic and shrugged off any political ramifications. They've already taken half a dozen hits this year and survived. Why not take another?