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> why wouldn't China attack Taiwan? The US officially doesn't rule out escalating from conventional to nuclear war against other nuclear-armed countries. Even

> why wouldn't China attack Taiwan? The US officially doesn't rule out escalating from conventional to nuclear war against other nuclear-armed countries. Even if the possibility is remote, I imagine that nobody is suicidal enough to want to test the possibility.

dragontamer 5y ago
And what if China performs the calculus: decides that Tactical nuclear weaponry is fine and that the USA isn't dumb enough to escalate into Strategic nuclear weaponry? There's a big difference between nuclear powers lobbing 100kilo-ton bombs at each other's navies in the Pacific, and nuclear powers using 10-Megaton bombs at each other's cities. Given that China has decided to make a large mass of cheap Destroyers, what do you think China is thinking about this next war? Tactical nuclear weaponry would favor the one who has a more dispersed naval force, and be a bigger problem for USA's multi-billion $$ supercarriers, would it not? ------- Lets say China nukes a military Supercarrier. Will the USA respond by nuking Beijing? Of course not. Knowing that USA is tactically in the disadvantage from using nukes (due to the composition of our fleet vs the Chinese fleet), we know that USA won't escalate to using even tactical nukes.
- joconde 5y ago
  On the one hand, that makes sense; on the other, it would still be the first use of nuclear weapons since WW2. The last close calls, like Cuba, didn't even involve any bombing, just the threat of one power's blockade against another's ships, and that one is widely seen as having come close to mutual destruction. I don't think that actually lobbing nukes at each other would be less dangerous. Also, accidents happen, and it's not clear how secure strategic weapons are against everything from a zealous airman to a submarine cut off from its command and having to make a judgment call. Daniel Ellsberg's book (The Doomsday Machine) suggests that this kind of accident during a crisis has come close to triggering a full nuclear war several times. To summarise, I'm sure the tactics look good for China, but escalating to nukes still seems like a suicidal move, considering the risk of accident or miscalculation.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    I personally agree with you. But I can conceive a hypothetical Chinese Admiral who disagrees with the both of us. And that's all that it will take.

dragontamer 5y ago

And what if China performs the calculus: decides that Tactical nuclear weaponry is fine and that the USA isn't dumb enough to escalate into Strategic nuclear weaponry? There's a big difference between nuclear powers lobbing 100kilo-ton bombs at each other's navies in the Pacific, and nuclear powers using 10-Megaton bombs at each other's cities. Given that China has decided to make a large mass of cheap Destroyers, what do you think China is thinking about this next war? Tactical nuclear weaponry would favor the one who has a more dispersed naval force, and be a bigger problem for USA's multi-billion $$ supercarriers, would it not? ------- Lets say China nukes a military Supercarrier. Will the USA respond by nuking Beijing? Of course not. Knowing that USA is tactically in the disadvantage from using nukes (due to the composition of our fleet vs the Chinese fleet), we know that USA won't escalate to using even tactical nukes.

joconde 5y ago
On the one hand, that makes sense; on the other, it would still be the first use of nuclear weapons since WW2. The last close calls, like Cuba, didn't even involve any bombing, just the threat of one power's blockade against another's ships, and that one is widely seen as having come close to mutual destruction. I don't think that actually lobbing nukes at each other would be less dangerous. Also, accidents happen, and it's not clear how secure strategic weapons are against everything from a zealous airman to a submarine cut off from its command and having to make a judgment call. Daniel Ellsberg's book (The Doomsday Machine) suggests that this kind of accident during a crisis has come close to triggering a full nuclear war several times. To summarise, I'm sure the tactics look good for China, but escalating to nukes still seems like a suicidal move, considering the risk of accident or miscalculation.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  I personally agree with you. But I can conceive a hypothetical Chinese Admiral who disagrees with the both of us. And that's all that it will take.