3 ms·

Just how many people do you think are needed to sabotage a chip fab? I'd say about one. How many rabid PRC-haters do you think Taiwan harbours? Well, it's more

by irdc 5y ago

Just how many people do you think are needed to sabotage a chip fab? I'd say about one. How many rabid PRC-haters do you think Taiwan harbours? Well, it's more than one...

dragontamer 5y ago
How many "von Braun" types do you think exist in Taiwan? People who are willing to work on cool projects no matter who is in charge? von Braun worked for the Nazis to make missiles during WW2. Then was picked up by USA / NASA to make missiles / ICBMs / Space Program. It turns out that a surprising number of engineers are rather flexible when it comes to ethics. They just want to work on cool things.
- irdc 5y ago
  Yep, that'll likely eventually happen... ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. Which as simonh pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591) is exactly what the CCP does not want. Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, I don't think they'd take the chance regarding Taiwan.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. If China wins Taiwan vs the USA, there wouldn't be any unrest or instability. The Chinese people would be proud of their accomplishment, and the rise of China as a military power. Like... what "instability" occurred from Russia's annexation of Crimea? None what so ever.
  - sbierwagen 5y ago
    >Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, They do, and that's the problem. The shot clock is ticking down quickly: fertility rate in PRC just hit 1.3 births per woman. Total population is projected to halve by the end of the century. The current cohort of military-age males is shrinking, and there won't be another one to replace it. The PLA will never be stronger than it is today. If Xi wants to take Taiwan, he has to do it now, because he's not going to get another chance. PRC manufacturing output is cratering due to power shortages and the global shipping and semiconductor convulsion, so the economy is going to get clobbered anyway. They're already doing recon flights through the ADIZ and running freedom of navigation naval patrols. If there's going to be a Taiwan annexation, it'll happen in the next 12 months. The US Navy is hapless and the Taiwanese army is supine. Evergrande is collapsing and there's already a wide array of tariffs and sanctions against PRC leadership. They accidentally caused a global pandemic and shrugged off any political ramifications. They've already taken half a dozen hits this year and survived. Why not take another?
tjalfi 5y ago
Organized stay-behind[0] operations such as Operation Gladio[1] were common in western Europe during the Cold War. The Taiwanese military has had decades to prepare for a Chinese invasion; it would be surprising if they didn't have a similar setup in place. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stay-behind https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stay-behind [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

by irdc 5y ago

Just how many people do you think are needed to sabotage a chip fab? I'd say about one. How many rabid PRC-haters do you think Taiwan harbours? Well, it's more than one...

dragontamer 5y ago

How many "von Braun" types do you think exist in Taiwan? People who are willing to work on cool projects no matter who is in charge? von Braun worked for the Nazis to make missiles during WW2. Then was picked up by USA / NASA to make missiles / ICBMs / Space Program. It turns out that a surprising number of engineers are rather flexible when it comes to ethics. They just want to work on cool things.

irdc 5y ago
Yep, that'll likely eventually happen... ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. Which as simonh pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591) is exactly what the CCP does not want. Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, I don't think they'd take the chance regarding Taiwan.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. If China wins Taiwan vs the USA, there wouldn't be any unrest or instability. The Chinese people would be proud of their accomplishment, and the rise of China as a military power. Like... what "instability" occurred from Russia's annexation of Crimea? None what so ever.
- sbierwagen 5y ago
  >Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, They do, and that's the problem. The shot clock is ticking down quickly: fertility rate in PRC just hit 1.3 births per woman. Total population is projected to halve by the end of the century. The current cohort of military-age males is shrinking, and there won't be another one to replace it. The PLA will never be stronger than it is today. If Xi wants to take Taiwan, he has to do it now, because he's not going to get another chance. PRC manufacturing output is cratering due to power shortages and the global shipping and semiconductor convulsion, so the economy is going to get clobbered anyway. They're already doing recon flights through the ADIZ and running freedom of navigation naval patrols. If there's going to be a Taiwan annexation, it'll happen in the next 12 months. The US Navy is hapless and the Taiwanese army is supine. Evergrande is collapsing and there's already a wide array of tariffs and sanctions against PRC leadership. They accidentally caused a global pandemic and shrugged off any political ramifications. They've already taken half a dozen hits this year and survived. Why not take another?

tjalfi 5y ago

Organized stay-behind[0] operations such as Operation Gladio[1] were common in western Europe during the Cold War. The Taiwanese military has had decades to prepare for a Chinese invasion; it would be surprising if they didn't have a similar setup in place. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stay-behind https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stay-behind [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio