5 ms·

I don't disagree that the PRC has their own best interests in mind. However, I don't see how they can be oblivious to the fact that going to war with and occupy

by irdc 5y ago

I don't disagree that the PRC has their own best interests in mind. However, I don't see how they can be oblivious to the fact that going to war with and occupying Taiwan would not only tie up a significant part of their military, but would also immediately give their current trading partners both reason and rationale to cut off trade. Not to mention the brain drain from Taiwan that would follow shortly after. If anything, I'm far more worried about the PRC exercising the soft power it's slowly been building in eg. part of Africa.

dragontamer 5y ago
The idea is to get Taiwan during the tail-end of the USA's upgrade cycle. China is building new ships today: roughly 3 aircraft carriers, and a huge number of Destroyers that will (on a tonnage basis), outnumber the entirety of the US Navy. They aren't capital ships, but a mass of lower-quality ships would probably still work if those hypersonic missiles can really kill our capital ships. (A big question in of itself: do China's hypersonic "ship killing" missiles work? If so, can the USA's defense systems shoot them down? If not, then why wouldn't China attack Taiwan?) Meanwhile, the US Navy is just about to upgrade over the next 15 years. This means that a number of our ships will be docked, and the ships that are remaining will be older designs. If China times it correctly, it can attack Taiwan and force the USA to defend with its obsolete ships, and before the new ships come online. In effect: the USA has already "spent" our money / resources on the upgrade process, but we haven't gotten the benefits of it yet. ---------- This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to attack. Once the USA's fleet is upgraded, the opportunity closes (as USA will have newer / better technology ships, while China's old Carriers/Destroyers will be at the disadvantage. And China won't reclaim the advantage until it spends a huge amount of time and money on their own upgrade cycle). Furthermore: this "delay in upgrade cycles" was caused by Bill Clinton's budget in 1996. It takes many years for a budgetary issue to come up, and the USA has spent huge amounts of money on its military from 2001 onwards (because of Afghanistan / Iraq). As such, no such "upgrade gap" will exist for 20+ years at the minimum after this opportunity passes. Will China be willing to wait another 50 years for another opportunity like this? Or will China actually go for it? And remember, China has already dedicated incredible amounts of money towards building a new fleet. China's fleet is a "sunk cost", their only decision now is whether or not to use it.
- irdc 5y ago
  Sure, they may very well win the battle. What I'm trying to say is that in the course of doing so they would very likely lose the war.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    The Nazis and Imperial Japanese lost the war the minute they made strategic blunders like... pissing off USA + Soviets __simultaneously__. It turns out that the human ability to make strategic blunders is very possible. So if your best argument is "it'd be a strategic mistake to do X". Well... history is filled with horrible strategic blunders. It'd probably be against American interests and a strategic blunder to divert forces from Afghanistan into Iraq on an notion of WMDs for example. Everyone makes strategic blunders all the time. I don't fault people for making them, I just try and study them and understand why it happens. ---------- There's something fascinating about war machines, like carriers, hypersonic cruise missiles, and destroyers. You have to see them in action to understand the intoxicating effects of these machines. Once you understand how these machines can hypnotize a person... how they can make you feel like you can accomplish anything... then, and ONLY then, will you understand why Wars get started. China's got Hypersonic cruise missiles. They know it. We know it. China knows the USA doesn't have them (!!!). That knowledge is intoxicating. China sees that as a military advantage. Will they be intoxicated by that knowledge to the point where they attack Taiwan? Well, no one knows for certain. But they've looked at those missiles and have __already decided__ to build more ships than the entirety of the US Navy. So what does that tell you?
    - infamia 5y ago
      > The Nazis and Imperial Japanese lost the war the minute they made strategic blunders like... pissing off USA + Soviets __simultaneously__. This is an important point and why I believe Wolf warrior diplomacy runs contrary to China's national interests. It has caused countries who previously viewed China as merely a competitor to view it as a direct threat and to take appropriate action. You know you've gone too far when your actions have resulted in Korea and Japan aligning with each other about the need for closer ties and to align with the U.S. on regional security.
orangepurple 5y ago
China has a policy of making everything in-house and already requires exit visas for its people. Brain drain can't happen if you are not allowed to leave.
- irdc 5y ago
  Just how many people do you think are needed to sabotage a chip fab? I'd say about one. How many rabid PRC-haters do you think Taiwan harbours? Well, it's more than one...
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    How many "von Braun" types do you think exist in Taiwan? People who are willing to work on cool projects no matter who is in charge? von Braun worked for the Nazis to make missiles during WW2. Then was picked up by USA / NASA to make missiles / ICBMs / Space Program. It turns out that a surprising number of engineers are rather flexible when it comes to ethics. They just want to work on cool things.
    - irdc 5y ago
      Yep, that'll likely eventually happen... ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. Which as simonh pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591) is exactly what the CCP does not want. Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, I don't think they'd take the chance regarding Taiwan.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        > ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. If China wins Taiwan vs the USA, there wouldn't be any unrest or instability. The Chinese people would be proud of their accomplishment, and the rise of China as a military power. Like... what "instability" occurred from Russia's annexation of Crimea? None what so ever.
      - sbierwagen 5y ago

by irdc 5y ago

dragontamer 5y ago

The idea is to get Taiwan during the tail-end of the USA's upgrade cycle. China is building new ships today: roughly 3 aircraft carriers, and a huge number of Destroyers that will (on a tonnage basis), outnumber the entirety of the US Navy. They aren't capital ships, but a mass of lower-quality ships would probably still work if those hypersonic missiles can really kill our capital ships. (A big question in of itself: do China's hypersonic "ship killing" missiles work? If so, can the USA's defense systems shoot them down? If not, then why wouldn't China attack Taiwan?) Meanwhile, the US Navy is just about to upgrade over the next 15 years. This means that a number of our ships will be docked, and the ships that are remaining will be older designs. If China times it correctly, it can attack Taiwan and force the USA to defend with its obsolete ships, and before the new ships come online. In effect: the USA has already "spent" our money / resources on the upgrade process, but we haven't gotten the benefits of it yet. ---------- This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to attack. Once the USA's fleet is upgraded, the opportunity closes (as USA will have newer / better technology ships, while China's old Carriers/Destroyers will be at the disadvantage. And China won't reclaim the advantage until it spends a huge amount of time and money on their own upgrade cycle). Furthermore: this "delay in upgrade cycles" was caused by Bill Clinton's budget in 1996. It takes many years for a budgetary issue to come up, and the USA has spent huge amounts of money on its military from 2001 onwards (because of Afghanistan / Iraq). As such, no such "upgrade gap" will exist for 20+ years at the minimum after this opportunity passes. Will China be willing to wait another 50 years for another opportunity like this? Or will China actually go for it? And remember, China has already dedicated incredible amounts of money towards building a new fleet. China's fleet is a "sunk cost", their only decision now is whether or not to use it.

irdc 5y ago
Sure, they may very well win the battle. What I'm trying to say is that in the course of doing so they would very likely lose the war.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  The Nazis and Imperial Japanese lost the war the minute they made strategic blunders like... pissing off USA + Soviets __simultaneously__. It turns out that the human ability to make strategic blunders is very possible. So if your best argument is "it'd be a strategic mistake to do X". Well... history is filled with horrible strategic blunders. It'd probably be against American interests and a strategic blunder to divert forces from Afghanistan into Iraq on an notion of WMDs for example. Everyone makes strategic blunders all the time. I don't fault people for making them, I just try and study them and understand why it happens. ---------- There's something fascinating about war machines, like carriers, hypersonic cruise missiles, and destroyers. You have to see them in action to understand the intoxicating effects of these machines. Once you understand how these machines can hypnotize a person... how they can make you feel like you can accomplish anything... then, and ONLY then, will you understand why Wars get started. China's got Hypersonic cruise missiles. They know it. We know it. China knows the USA doesn't have them (!!!). That knowledge is intoxicating. China sees that as a military advantage. Will they be intoxicated by that knowledge to the point where they attack Taiwan? Well, no one knows for certain. But they've looked at those missiles and have __already decided__ to build more ships than the entirety of the US Navy. So what does that tell you?
  - infamia 5y ago
    > The Nazis and Imperial Japanese lost the war the minute they made strategic blunders like... pissing off USA + Soviets __simultaneously__. This is an important point and why I believe Wolf warrior diplomacy runs contrary to China's national interests. It has caused countries who previously viewed China as merely a competitor to view it as a direct threat and to take appropriate action. You know you've gone too far when your actions have resulted in Korea and Japan aligning with each other about the need for closer ties and to align with the U.S. on regional security.

orangepurple 5y ago

China has a policy of making everything in-house and already requires exit visas for its people. Brain drain can't happen if you are not allowed to leave.

irdc 5y ago
Just how many people do you think are needed to sabotage a chip fab? I'd say about one. How many rabid PRC-haters do you think Taiwan harbours? Well, it's more than one...
- dragontamer 5y ago
  How many "von Braun" types do you think exist in Taiwan? People who are willing to work on cool projects no matter who is in charge? von Braun worked for the Nazis to make missiles during WW2. Then was picked up by USA / NASA to make missiles / ICBMs / Space Program. It turns out that a surprising number of engineers are rather flexible when it comes to ethics. They just want to work on cool things.
  - irdc 5y ago
    Yep, that'll likely eventually happen... ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. Which as simonh pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28959591) is exactly what the CCP does not want. Knowing that the PRC tends to take the long view, I don't think they'd take the chance regarding Taiwan.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      > ...after a couple of years of unrest and social instability. If China wins Taiwan vs the USA, there wouldn't be any unrest or instability. The Chinese people would be proud of their accomplishment, and the rise of China as a military power. Like... what "instability" occurred from Russia's annexation of Crimea? None what so ever.
    - sbierwagen 5y ago