6 ms·

It is only a matter of time before PRC annexes the island of Taiwan and TSMC production is hugely disrupted. The USA did not win the last two proxy wars against

It is only a matter of time before PRC annexes the island of Taiwan and TSMC production is hugely disrupted. The USA did not win the last two proxy wars against China (North Vietnam and North Korea). This time will be no different.

specialist 5y ago
Such confidence. You should cash in. https://www.predictit.org/ https://www.predictit.org/
- orangepurple 5y ago
  There is no objective measure of "having won" the war. There never is because war results in extremely mixed outcomes. All that matters is the victors have the power to subjugate the people of the land, people's beliefs and consequences be damned.
- mcculley 5y ago
  There is no market on PredictIt for that, as far as I can tell. Where can one buy for this prediction?
irdc 5y ago
There's an argument to be made that annexing Taiwan would actually be detrimental to the PRC: doing so would be hugely disruptive to the global supply chains that form a major source of income to China.
- orangepurple 5y ago
  China is willing to decimate its own economy to achieve long term objectives. This includes annexing Hong Kong, shutting down celebrity culture, fintechs, and the tech industry.
  - irdc 5y ago
    I don't disagree that the PRC has their own best interests in mind. However, I don't see how they can be oblivious to the fact that going to war with and occupying Taiwan would not only tie up a significant part of their military, but would also immediately give their current trading partners both reason and rationale to cut off trade. Not to mention the brain drain from Taiwan that would follow shortly after. If anything, I'm far more worried about the PRC exercising the soft power it's slowly been building in eg. part of Africa.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      The idea is to get Taiwan during the tail-end of the USA's upgrade cycle. China is building new ships today: roughly 3 aircraft carriers, and a huge number of Destroyers that will (on a tonnage basis), outnumber the entirety of the US Navy. They aren't capital ships, but a mass of lower-quality ships would probably still work if those hypersonic missiles can really kill our capital ships. (A big question in of itself: do China's hypersonic "ship killing" missiles work? If so, can the USA's defense systems shoot them down? If not, then why wouldn't China attack Taiwan?) Meanwhile, the US Navy is just about to upgrade over the next 15 years. This means that a number of our ships will be docked, and the ships that are remaining will be older designs. If China times it correctly, it can attack Taiwan and force the USA to defend with its obsolete ships, and before the new ships come online. In effect: the USA has already "spent" our money / resources on the upgrade process, but we haven't gotten the benefits of it yet. ---------- This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to attack. Once the USA's fleet is upgraded, the opportunity closes (as USA will have newer / better technology ships, while China's old Carriers/Destroyers will be at the disadvantage. And China won't reclaim the advantage until it spends a huge amount of time and money on their own upgrade cycle). Furthermore: this "delay in upgrade cycles" was caused by Bill Clinton's budget in 1996. It takes many years for a budgetary issue to come up, and the USA has spent huge amounts of money on its military from 2001 onwards (because of Afghanistan / Iraq). As such, no such "upgrade gap" will exist for 20+ years at the minimum after this opportunity passes. Will China be willing to wait another 50 years for another opportunity like this? Or will China actually go for it? And remember, China has already dedicated incredible amounts of money towards building a new fleet. China's fleet is a "sunk cost", their only decision now is whether or not to use it.
zsmi 5y ago
If China annexes Taiwan it will be for reasons that have nothing to do with TSMC. There may be a short term benefit but if they get cut off from ASML (Europe), Applied Materials (US), etc. it's going to be tough to keep their machines in service and stay leading edge. And those companies have very deep international supply chains too and may also get sanctioned.
Zababa 5y ago
> the island of Taiwan You sound like you have a dog in this fight.
- orangepurple 5y ago
  I couldn't care less. Supply chains are already massively disrupted, I can't get the electronics I care about at affordable prices and lead times, and everyday costs are out of control in my country (USA).
MangoCoffee 5y ago
i believed people is overplaying China invasion. TSMC is a business. a saying goes "business man have no border". TSMC have a lot of fabs in Taiwan. that doesn't mean TSMC as a business can't build fab elsewhere. TSMC is already building a fab in AZ USA and reach an agreement with Sony to build a fab in Japan. TSMC also have fabs in China and India govrt is looking to Taiwan for a fab in India.

specialist 5y ago

Such confidence. You should cash in. https://www.predictit.org/ https://www.predictit.org/

orangepurple 5y ago
There is no objective measure of "having won" the war. There never is because war results in extremely mixed outcomes. All that matters is the victors have the power to subjugate the people of the land, people's beliefs and consequences be damned.
mcculley 5y ago
There is no market on PredictIt for that, as far as I can tell. Where can one buy for this prediction?

irdc 5y ago

There's an argument to be made that annexing Taiwan would actually be detrimental to the PRC: doing so would be hugely disruptive to the global supply chains that form a major source of income to China.

orangepurple 5y ago
China is willing to decimate its own economy to achieve long term objectives. This includes annexing Hong Kong, shutting down celebrity culture, fintechs, and the tech industry.
- irdc 5y ago
  I don't disagree that the PRC has their own best interests in mind. However, I don't see how they can be oblivious to the fact that going to war with and occupying Taiwan would not only tie up a significant part of their military, but would also immediately give their current trading partners both reason and rationale to cut off trade. Not to mention the brain drain from Taiwan that would follow shortly after. If anything, I'm far more worried about the PRC exercising the soft power it's slowly been building in eg. part of Africa.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    The idea is to get Taiwan during the tail-end of the USA's upgrade cycle. China is building new ships today: roughly 3 aircraft carriers, and a huge number of Destroyers that will (on a tonnage basis), outnumber the entirety of the US Navy. They aren't capital ships, but a mass of lower-quality ships would probably still work if those hypersonic missiles can really kill our capital ships. (A big question in of itself: do China's hypersonic "ship killing" missiles work? If so, can the USA's defense systems shoot them down? If not, then why wouldn't China attack Taiwan?) Meanwhile, the US Navy is just about to upgrade over the next 15 years. This means that a number of our ships will be docked, and the ships that are remaining will be older designs. If China times it correctly, it can attack Taiwan and force the USA to defend with its obsolete ships, and before the new ships come online. In effect: the USA has already "spent" our money / resources on the upgrade process, but we haven't gotten the benefits of it yet. ---------- This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to attack. Once the USA's fleet is upgraded, the opportunity closes (as USA will have newer / better technology ships, while China's old Carriers/Destroyers will be at the disadvantage. And China won't reclaim the advantage until it spends a huge amount of time and money on their own upgrade cycle). Furthermore: this "delay in upgrade cycles" was caused by Bill Clinton's budget in 1996. It takes many years for a budgetary issue to come up, and the USA has spent huge amounts of money on its military from 2001 onwards (because of Afghanistan / Iraq). As such, no such "upgrade gap" will exist for 20+ years at the minimum after this opportunity passes. Will China be willing to wait another 50 years for another opportunity like this? Or will China actually go for it? And remember, China has already dedicated incredible amounts of money towards building a new fleet. China's fleet is a "sunk cost", their only decision now is whether or not to use it.

zsmi 5y ago

If China annexes Taiwan it will be for reasons that have nothing to do with TSMC. There may be a short term benefit but if they get cut off from ASML (Europe), Applied Materials (US), etc. it's going to be tough to keep their machines in service and stay leading edge. And those companies have very deep international supply chains too and may also get sanctioned.

Zababa 5y ago

> the island of Taiwan You sound like you have a dog in this fight.

orangepurple 5y ago
I couldn't care less. Supply chains are already massively disrupted, I can't get the electronics I care about at affordable prices and lead times, and everyday costs are out of control in my country (USA).

MangoCoffee 5y ago

i believed people is overplaying China invasion. TSMC is a business. a saying goes "business man have no border". TSMC have a lot of fabs in Taiwan. that doesn't mean TSMC as a business can't build fab elsewhere. TSMC is already building a fab in AZ USA and reach an agreement with Sony to build a fab in Japan. TSMC also have fabs in China and India govrt is looking to Taiwan for a fab in India.