4 ms·

> TSMC will win. Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion.

by davidw 5y ago

diroussel 5y ago
And climate issues. Taiwan is suffering from drought in places, and TSMC hasn’t been able to meet their water saving goals. It takes a lot of water to make the ultra pure water needed to wash the wafers. Without access to lots of water they will too will have issues.
- davidw 5y ago
  There was an interesting thread about this in the past if someone wants to dig it up, because offhand, a lot of us were a bit perplexed by the notion of Taiwan having water difficulties, and Intel building in Arizona, which is not known for an abundance of water.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Arizona solves the issue of a hypothetical PRC attack on the island of Taiwan. PRC will have enough military strength to attack Taiwan and challenge US Carriers. We don't know if they'd win but... enough strength that they're a real threat... at least near China (with assistance from land-based hypersonic missiles and whatnot). PRC probably doesn't have the military strength to attack Arizona.
    - davidw 5y ago
      Sure, but the question was about water.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        The question may have been about water, but the geopolitics are about a hypothetical attack from China vs Taiwain.
        codedokode 5y ago
        I think geopolitics is about US wanting to have control over chip production (being able to start or stop it, being able to ban certain countries and companies from getting access to the latest technology). I doubt conflict between China and Taiwan means anything here. China is not going to attack Taiwan which has US support.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        > China is not going to attack Taiwan which has US support. China will have a Navy that (by tonnage) rivals the US's Navy in a few short years. US still will have more capital ships but there's big, unanswered questions about what the proper tactics will be in the next great naval battles. Would we rather have the US's "Supercarrier" strategy? Big ships with lots of money put into each one? Or would China's "little ships" strategy be superior? Really: one question. Will China's hypersonic missiles truly be a capital-ship killer? If their weapon can truly kill a US Supercarrier, (or more specifically: if China __believes__ it can kill the US Supercarriers) then China will probably attack Taiwan. China is building a navy for _some_ reason. Taiwan seems like the obvious target. ------ China's increasingly large Navy is a big enough deal that the USA has given away its nuclear submarine secrets to Australia to counter-act the threat. That doesn't really change the picture too much (US always had nuclear-submarines available), but its clearly a degree of saber-rattling going on right now between US and China.
      - aeturnum 5y ago
        I think the idea is that, though I'm sure the AZ site is unsatisfying as far as water goes, they can always pipe water in and it was picked for other reasons.
  - quickthrowman 5y ago
    I remember that, I believe the Intel plant in AZ recycles/will recycle 95% of the water it uses
    - paulmd 5y ago
      everyone already recycles water, but you can't make ultrapure water ultrapure again after using it to rinse off chemicals without significant work. "recycling" here means they use the waste water for evaporative cooling. that 2MW of power has to go somewhere and you don't dissipate the waste heat with a big heatsink, you evaporate water with it to get rid of the heat, as with most industrial facilities. we had an actual intel plant manager who actually ran one of intel's fabs on one of the previous threads about this and HNers of course deigned to tell him his business, as usual. Love it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28683036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28683036
  - diroussel 5y ago
    This video from asianometry has the info on the water issues for TSMC https://youtu.be/Dq04GpzRZ0g https://youtu.be/Dq04GpzRZ0g
  - Throwawayaerlei 5y ago
    What I've read is that reliable electricity is a much bigger problem, Taiwan's leaders are failing hard on this.
dragontamer 5y ago
> Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion. Geopolitics have been figured out. TSMC's next 5nm plant will be in Arizona. https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/06/01/tsmc-starts-construction-of-5nm-chip-plant-in-arizona https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/06/01/tsmc-starts-const...
- worrycue 5y ago
  Will it be enough for the US government though? The current shortage is making countries like the US realise that semiconductors are a critical commodity for the function of their advanced economies. The US wants fabs back on their soil and will probably be willing to burn money to make it so. Will the US be satisfied with just having foreign operated fabs on US soil? Or will the US want home growth (and firmly under US control) companies like Intel to have similar capabilities. Frankly, IMHO things in the long term aren’t looking that great for TSMC. Some of their business is going to get eaten by “local” fabs - even if they can’t do leading edge nodes they will eating into TSMC’s business on the lower end. There is also the danger of overcapacity destroying any profitability in the fab business altogether - guess who will get bailed out by the US government if that happens; hint: not TSMC.
  - zsmi 5y ago
    > There is also the danger of overcapacity destroying any profitability in the fab business altogether - guess who will get bailed out by the US government if that happens; hint: not TSMC. The boom/bust cycle is nothing new in semiconductors. It's a fairly regular thing. Also, keep in mind that consolidating and repositioning during downturns is how TSMC became TSMC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7QkIECEkVc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7QkIECEkVc
    - worrycue 5y ago
      I don’t mean temporary overcapacity. Overcapacity could be near permanent / long lasting as governments step in to prevent their local fabs from failing as they want to maintain local production capability no matter what. In general, if semiconductors become a national security issue, I think there will be a fundamental change in the nature of the business. It will not be business as usual for TSMC.

> TSMC will win. Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion.

by davidw 5y ago

> TSMC will win. Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion.

And climate issues. Taiwan is suffering from drought in places, and TSMC hasn’t been able to meet their water saving goals. It takes a lot of water to make the ultra pure water needed to wash the wafers. Without access to lots of water they will too will have issues.

davidw 5y ago
There was an interesting thread about this in the past if someone wants to dig it up, because offhand, a lot of us were a bit perplexed by the notion of Taiwan having water difficulties, and Intel building in Arizona, which is not known for an abundance of water.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Arizona solves the issue of a hypothetical PRC attack on the island of Taiwan. PRC will have enough military strength to attack Taiwan and challenge US Carriers. We don't know if they'd win but... enough strength that they're a real threat... at least near China (with assistance from land-based hypersonic missiles and whatnot). PRC probably doesn't have the military strength to attack Arizona.
  - davidw 5y ago
    Sure, but the question was about water.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      The question may have been about water, but the geopolitics are about a hypothetical attack from China vs Taiwain.
      - codedokode 5y ago
        I think geopolitics is about US wanting to have control over chip production (being able to start or stop it, being able to ban certain countries and companies from getting access to the latest technology). I doubt conflict between China and Taiwan means anything here. China is not going to attack Taiwan which has US support.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        > China is not going to attack Taiwan which has US support. China will have a Navy that (by tonnage) rivals the US's Navy in a few short years. US still will have more capital ships but there's big, unanswered questions about what the proper tactics will be in the next great naval battles. Would we rather have the US's "Supercarrier" strategy? Big ships with lots of money put into each one? Or would China's "little ships" strategy be superior? Really: one question. Will China's hypersonic missiles truly be a capital-ship killer? If their weapon can truly kill a US Supercarrier, (or more specifically: if China __believes__ it can kill the US Supercarriers) then China will probably attack Taiwan. China is building a navy for _some_ reason. Taiwan seems like the obvious target. ------ China's increasingly large Navy is a big enough deal that the USA has given away its nuclear submarine secrets to Australia to counter-act the threat. That doesn't really change the picture too much (US always had nuclear-submarines available), but its clearly a degree of saber-rattling going on right now between US and China.
    - aeturnum 5y ago
      I think the idea is that, though I'm sure the AZ site is unsatisfying as far as water goes, they can always pipe water in and it was picked for other reasons.
- quickthrowman 5y ago
  I remember that, I believe the Intel plant in AZ recycles/will recycle 95% of the water it uses
  - paulmd 5y ago
    everyone already recycles water, but you can't make ultrapure water ultrapure again after using it to rinse off chemicals without significant work. "recycling" here means they use the waste water for evaporative cooling. that 2MW of power has to go somewhere and you don't dissipate the waste heat with a big heatsink, you evaporate water with it to get rid of the heat, as with most industrial facilities. we had an actual intel plant manager who actually ran one of intel's fabs on one of the previous threads about this and HNers of course deigned to tell him his business, as usual. Love it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28683036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28683036
- diroussel 5y ago
  This video from asianometry has the info on the water issues for TSMC https://youtu.be/Dq04GpzRZ0g https://youtu.be/Dq04GpzRZ0g
- Throwawayaerlei 5y ago
  What I've read is that reliable electricity is a much bigger problem, Taiwan's leaders are failing hard on this.

dragontamer 5y ago

> Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion. Geopolitics have been figured out. TSMC's next 5nm plant will be in Arizona. https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/06/01/tsmc-starts-construction-of-5nm-chip-plant-in-arizona https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/06/01/tsmc-starts-const...

worrycue 5y ago
Will it be enough for the US government though? The current shortage is making countries like the US realise that semiconductors are a critical commodity for the function of their advanced economies. The US wants fabs back on their soil and will probably be willing to burn money to make it so. Will the US be satisfied with just having foreign operated fabs on US soil? Or will the US want home growth (and firmly under US control) companies like Intel to have similar capabilities. Frankly, IMHO things in the long term aren’t looking that great for TSMC. Some of their business is going to get eaten by “local” fabs - even if they can’t do leading edge nodes they will eating into TSMC’s business on the lower end. There is also the danger of overcapacity destroying any profitability in the fab business altogether - guess who will get bailed out by the US government if that happens; hint: not TSMC.
- zsmi 5y ago
  > There is also the danger of overcapacity destroying any profitability in the fab business altogether - guess who will get bailed out by the US government if that happens; hint: not TSMC. The boom/bust cycle is nothing new in semiconductors. It's a fairly regular thing. Also, keep in mind that consolidating and repositioning during downturns is how TSMC became TSMC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7QkIECEkVc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7QkIECEkVc
  - worrycue 5y ago
    I don’t mean temporary overcapacity. Overcapacity could be near permanent / long lasting as governments step in to prevent their local fabs from failing as they want to maintain local production capability no matter what. In general, if semiconductors become a national security issue, I think there will be a fundamental change in the nature of the business. It will not be business as usual for TSMC.