13 ms·

It looks like everyone is opening a fab in the next couple years ( for many reasons, one of them is political ) so I would guess in the next couple years orderi

It looks like everyone is opening a fab in the next couple years ( for many reasons, one of them is political ) so I would guess in the next couple years ordering chips will be "cheap" because most fabs are desperate to recoup at least some of the gigantic investment and margins will be razor thin. So my guess would be in the next decade, the real money will be on the design and IP not the manufacturing. ( excluding the bleeding edge half-a-nm stuff )

dragontamer 5y ago
Everyone is opening a fab, but it only "counts" if you in fact succeed at making the chips. Otherwise, you've only spent $5 billion on a failure. Intel has fallen behind because it failed to deliver its 10nm (now called 7nm) process in 2015. Intel tried-and-tried, but failed, to the point where supercomputers (ie: Aurora) were delayed because of the manufacturing mishap. Just because everyone is __planning__ to open a fab doesn't mean that they'll be successful at it. If Intel fails to reach 5nm (TSMC-name), then TSMC will win. In fact, TSMC has already started making 5nm chips called the Apple M1 Pro. --------- Intel has finally delivered 10nm, but they were 5 years late. If it takes another 5 years to deliver their version of 5nm, then TSMC will be at 3nm by the time Intel reaches 5nm ----------- Its all about manufacturing actually. All of these chip designs can be ported over to different manufacturers, so long as the different manufacturers are __CAPABLE__ of implementing the designs.
- irrational 5y ago
  Why has TSMC succeeded where Intel has failed?
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > Why has TSMC succeeded where Intel has failed? Everyone is buying the same machines from ASML. Machines aren't the issue, its process. Its nitty gritty manufacturing details that no one will talk about (because those details are the "moat", the secret sauce that makes TSMC do something that Intel can't). It looks like Intel has figured out 7nm, just much later than expected.
  - AlphaSite 5y ago
    Intel takes huge leaps, it’s how they kept 5e it lead for so long, but TSMC makes incremental progress and it’s paid off now that things are getting extremely difficult.
  - filereaper 5y ago
    Leadership. TSMC has competent leaders like Morris Chang and Mark Liu. Intel had lost it's way after Andy Grove gave up the helm. Pat Gelsinger grew up under Gordon and Grove and the old guard is back.
    - bsder 5y ago
      Actually, it's more than just the executive slots. Intel is institutionally paranoid, and Grove is part of that fault. The old guard, even in engineering, is retiring/dying and have not groomed successors because that could have threatened their political position. Can Gelsinger really fix this? I suspect probably not.
  - Jensson 5y ago
    USA paid its best engineers to do advertisements and finance speculations. It means USA will be best in the world at advertisements but naturally will lag behind in other fields.
    - thedougd 5y ago
      Or in other words, Intel fell into the same management trap as other legacy tech providers. They focused on paying industry wide 'median' salaries and bled talent.
  - MichaelMoser123 5y ago
    Intel and TSMC are all using lithography machines by ASML, so what is the difference? Are they using the same lithography machines? Is there a difference in production processes used at TSMC vs Intel? Does anyone know any details?
    - MichaelMoser123 5y ago
      https://wccftech.com/intel-vs-tsmc-chip-war-has-started-and-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/ https://wccftech.com/intel-vs-tsmc-chip-war-has-started-and-... Here they say that TSMC has a lead in the number of EUV lithography machines. " in 2021 and 2022, TSMC will have acquired 40 - 50 EUV machines while Intel will have procured 13 - 20 machines. Estimates based on Dutch company ASML, who is the sole supplier of the machines, suggest that TSMC had anywhere in between 30 - 63 EUV scanners by the end of last year." But Intel is playing catch-up "even as TSMC currently leads in machine inventory, Intel's future inventory could render this advantage moot. Mr. Gelsinger's belief that Intel aims for "leadership by 2024" seems to follow this timeline as well."
- davidw 5y ago
  > TSMC will win. Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion.
  - diroussel 5y ago
    And climate issues. Taiwan is suffering from drought in places, and TSMC hasn’t been able to meet their water saving goals. It takes a lot of water to make the ultra pure water needed to wash the wafers. Without access to lots of water they will too will have issues.
    - davidw 5y ago
      There was an interesting thread about this in the past if someone wants to dig it up, because offhand, a lot of us were a bit perplexed by the notion of Taiwan having water difficulties, and Intel building in Arizona, which is not known for an abundance of water.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        Arizona solves the issue of a hypothetical PRC attack on the island of Taiwan. PRC will have enough military strength to attack Taiwan and challenge US Carriers. We don't know if they'd win but... enough strength that they're a real threat... at least near China (with assistance from land-based hypersonic missiles and whatnot). PRC probably doesn't have the military strength to attack Arizona.
        davidw 5y ago
        Sure, but the question was about water.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        The question may have been about water, but the geopolitics are about a hypothetical attack from China vs Taiwain.
- orangepurple 5y ago
  It is only a matter of time before PRC annexes the island of Taiwan and TSMC production is hugely disrupted. The USA did not win the last two proxy wars against China (North Vietnam and North Korea). This time will be no different.
  - specialist 5y ago
    Such confidence. You should cash in. https://www.predictit.org/ https://www.predictit.org/
    - orangepurple 5y ago
      There is no objective measure of "having won" the war. There never is because war results in extremely mixed outcomes. All that matters is the victors have the power to subjugate the people of the land, people's beliefs and consequences be damned.
    - mcculley 5y ago
      There is no market on PredictIt for that, as far as I can tell. Where can one buy for this prediction?
  - irdc 5y ago
    There's an argument to be made that annexing Taiwan would actually be detrimental to the PRC: doing so would be hugely disruptive to the global supply chains that form a major source of income to China.
    - orangepurple 5y ago
      China is willing to decimate its own economy to achieve long term objectives. This includes annexing Hong Kong, shutting down celebrity culture, fintechs, and the tech industry.
      - irdc 5y ago
        I don't disagree that the PRC has their own best interests in mind. However, I don't see how they can be oblivious to the fact that going to war with and occupying Taiwan would not only tie up a significant part of their military, but would also immediately give their current trading partners both reason and rationale to cut off trade. Not to mention the brain drain from Taiwan that would follow shortly after. If anything, I'm far more worried about the PRC exercising the soft power it's slowly been building in eg. part of Africa.
- DCKing 5y ago
  > In fact, TSMC has already started making 5nm chips called the Apple M1 Pro. This is not a recent development. TSMC has been mass producing 5nm chips for slightly over a year now. The first 5nm chip on the market was the Apple A14 (iPhone 12 line) released almost exactly one year ago, and soon thereafter (November 10th, 2020) the first M1 Macs. Samsung has had their ""5nm"" chips out since early 2021 with the Exynos 2100 and Snapdragon 888. It's in the ballpark of TSMC's process but not as dense. Intel hasn't even announced their first mass market 7nm (or ""Intel 4"", sigh) products yet. ""Intel 4"" is inferior to Samsung's and TSMC's 5nm processes on paper, and it'll likely not even be next year that we're going to see products with them. I don't think Intel's foundries will be competing on the leading edge of the market. They'll have be trying to have value focused production with their 14nm and 10nm processes, I would guess. There should be plenty of demand there still, but it'll be a good while - if ever - before Intel is leading again.
  - eulers_secret 5y ago
    >""Intel 4"" is inferior to Samsung's and TSMC's 5nm processes on paper {...} According to transistor density information this is false (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process) TSMC 5nm density: 173 MTr/mm^2 Samsung 5nm density: 127 MTr/mm^2 Intel 4 (estimated): ~200 MTr/mm^2 Got a source? I'm willing to change my mind, but the data doesn't agree with your assertion from my point of view. Samsung's process has always lagged TSMC and INTC. It's part of why the 3080 is so hot/power hungry.
    - DCKing 5y ago
      Think I may be mistaken here. Would be good if ""Intel 4"" can compete!
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - chelical 5y ago
      Intel's numbers are theoretical. They're still relying heavily on multi patterning for their current chips. They have yet to demonstrate competency with EUV. Intel 4 is also projected for 2023. Tsmc are producing 5nm chips right now.
- hnburnsy 5y ago
  >TSMC will win What do they win? More maket share, more revenue, more profits, better margins, competitors goes out of business? I know very little about this industry, but is the market big enough for all players to 'win'?
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > What do they win? More maket share, more revenue, more profits, better margins, competitors goes out of business? https://www.reuters.com/business/intel-details-mixed-source-chip-strategy-tsmc-partnerships-2021-08-19 https://www.reuters.com/business/intel-details-mixed-source-... > Intel said Thursday its "Alchemist" graphics chips will be made by TSMC using the latter's newly named "N6" chipmaking technology, an upgraded version of its "N7" technology. I mean, I guess they're already "winning". Intel's own chip-making group has begun to use TSMC. Hopefully Intel can figure something out about what its like to be a customer, so maybe they can be a better supplier? But yes: customers, market share, and knowledge. By having more customers, TSMC can perform more experiments on more leading edge nodes, like 3nm or smaller.
SavantIdiot 5y ago
Up until the kaboom, microprocessors have become a commodity. Granted one with huge startup costs, but a commodity nonetheless. (There's a reason why Intel used to be top forbes company, and why today it is still stuck in the $100-200B market cap range compared to $2T amazons & apples.)

dragontamer 5y ago

Everyone is opening a fab, but it only "counts" if you in fact succeed at making the chips. Otherwise, you've only spent $5 billion on a failure. Intel has fallen behind because it failed to deliver its 10nm (now called 7nm) process in 2015. Intel tried-and-tried, but failed, to the point where supercomputers (ie: Aurora) were delayed because of the manufacturing mishap. Just because everyone is __planning__ to open a fab doesn't mean that they'll be successful at it. If Intel fails to reach 5nm (TSMC-name), then TSMC will win. In fact, TSMC has already started making 5nm chips called the Apple M1 Pro. --------- Intel has finally delivered 10nm, but they were 5 years late. If it takes another 5 years to deliver their version of 5nm, then TSMC will be at 3nm by the time Intel reaches 5nm ----------- Its all about manufacturing actually. All of these chip designs can be ported over to different manufacturers, so long as the different manufacturers are __CAPABLE__ of implementing the designs.

irrational 5y ago
Why has TSMC succeeded where Intel has failed?
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > Why has TSMC succeeded where Intel has failed? Everyone is buying the same machines from ASML. Machines aren't the issue, its process. Its nitty gritty manufacturing details that no one will talk about (because those details are the "moat", the secret sauce that makes TSMC do something that Intel can't). It looks like Intel has figured out 7nm, just much later than expected.
- AlphaSite 5y ago
  Intel takes huge leaps, it’s how they kept 5e it lead for so long, but TSMC makes incremental progress and it’s paid off now that things are getting extremely difficult.
- filereaper 5y ago
  Leadership. TSMC has competent leaders like Morris Chang and Mark Liu. Intel had lost it's way after Andy Grove gave up the helm. Pat Gelsinger grew up under Gordon and Grove and the old guard is back.
  - bsder 5y ago
    Actually, it's more than just the executive slots. Intel is institutionally paranoid, and Grove is part of that fault. The old guard, even in engineering, is retiring/dying and have not groomed successors because that could have threatened their political position. Can Gelsinger really fix this? I suspect probably not.
- Jensson 5y ago
  USA paid its best engineers to do advertisements and finance speculations. It means USA will be best in the world at advertisements but naturally will lag behind in other fields.
  - thedougd 5y ago
    Or in other words, Intel fell into the same management trap as other legacy tech providers. They focused on paying industry wide 'median' salaries and bled talent.
- MichaelMoser123 5y ago
  Intel and TSMC are all using lithography machines by ASML, so what is the difference? Are they using the same lithography machines? Is there a difference in production processes used at TSMC vs Intel? Does anyone know any details?
  - MichaelMoser123 5y ago
    https://wccftech.com/intel-vs-tsmc-chip-war-has-started-and-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/ https://wccftech.com/intel-vs-tsmc-chip-war-has-started-and-... Here they say that TSMC has a lead in the number of EUV lithography machines. " in 2021 and 2022, TSMC will have acquired 40 - 50 EUV machines while Intel will have procured 13 - 20 machines. Estimates based on Dutch company ASML, who is the sole supplier of the machines, suggest that TSMC had anywhere in between 30 - 63 EUV scanners by the end of last year." But Intel is playing catch-up "even as TSMC currently leads in machine inventory, Intel's future inventory could render this advantage moot. Mr. Gelsinger's belief that Intel aims for "leadership by 2024" seems to follow this timeline as well."
davidw 5y ago
> TSMC will win. Absent any geopolitical difficulties... but that's a whole other discussion.
- diroussel 5y ago
  And climate issues. Taiwan is suffering from drought in places, and TSMC hasn’t been able to meet their water saving goals. It takes a lot of water to make the ultra pure water needed to wash the wafers. Without access to lots of water they will too will have issues.
  - davidw 5y ago
    There was an interesting thread about this in the past if someone wants to dig it up, because offhand, a lot of us were a bit perplexed by the notion of Taiwan having water difficulties, and Intel building in Arizona, which is not known for an abundance of water.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Arizona solves the issue of a hypothetical PRC attack on the island of Taiwan. PRC will have enough military strength to attack Taiwan and challenge US Carriers. We don't know if they'd win but... enough strength that they're a real threat... at least near China (with assistance from land-based hypersonic missiles and whatnot). PRC probably doesn't have the military strength to attack Arizona.
      - davidw 5y ago
        Sure, but the question was about water.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        The question may have been about water, but the geopolitics are about a hypothetical attack from China vs Taiwain.
orangepurple 5y ago
It is only a matter of time before PRC annexes the island of Taiwan and TSMC production is hugely disrupted. The USA did not win the last two proxy wars against China (North Vietnam and North Korea). This time will be no different.
- specialist 5y ago
  Such confidence. You should cash in. https://www.predictit.org/ https://www.predictit.org/
  - orangepurple 5y ago
    There is no objective measure of "having won" the war. There never is because war results in extremely mixed outcomes. All that matters is the victors have the power to subjugate the people of the land, people's beliefs and consequences be damned.
  - mcculley 5y ago
    There is no market on PredictIt for that, as far as I can tell. Where can one buy for this prediction?
- irdc 5y ago
  There's an argument to be made that annexing Taiwan would actually be detrimental to the PRC: doing so would be hugely disruptive to the global supply chains that form a major source of income to China.
  - orangepurple 5y ago
    China is willing to decimate its own economy to achieve long term objectives. This includes annexing Hong Kong, shutting down celebrity culture, fintechs, and the tech industry.
    - irdc 5y ago
      I don't disagree that the PRC has their own best interests in mind. However, I don't see how they can be oblivious to the fact that going to war with and occupying Taiwan would not only tie up a significant part of their military, but would also immediately give their current trading partners both reason and rationale to cut off trade. Not to mention the brain drain from Taiwan that would follow shortly after. If anything, I'm far more worried about the PRC exercising the soft power it's slowly been building in eg. part of Africa.
DCKing 5y ago
> In fact, TSMC has already started making 5nm chips called the Apple M1 Pro. This is not a recent development. TSMC has been mass producing 5nm chips for slightly over a year now. The first 5nm chip on the market was the Apple A14 (iPhone 12 line) released almost exactly one year ago, and soon thereafter (November 10th, 2020) the first M1 Macs. Samsung has had their ""5nm"" chips out since early 2021 with the Exynos 2100 and Snapdragon 888. It's in the ballpark of TSMC's process but not as dense. Intel hasn't even announced their first mass market 7nm (or ""Intel 4"", sigh) products yet. ""Intel 4"" is inferior to Samsung's and TSMC's 5nm processes on paper, and it'll likely not even be next year that we're going to see products with them. I don't think Intel's foundries will be competing on the leading edge of the market. They'll have be trying to have value focused production with their 14nm and 10nm processes, I would guess. There should be plenty of demand there still, but it'll be a good while - if ever - before Intel is leading again.
- eulers_secret 5y ago
  >""Intel 4"" is inferior to Samsung's and TSMC's 5nm processes on paper {...} According to transistor density information this is false (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process) TSMC 5nm density: 173 MTr/mm^2 Samsung 5nm density: 127 MTr/mm^2 Intel 4 (estimated): ~200 MTr/mm^2 Got a source? I'm willing to change my mind, but the data doesn't agree with your assertion from my point of view. Samsung's process has always lagged TSMC and INTC. It's part of why the 3080 is so hot/power hungry.
  - DCKing 5y ago
    Think I may be mistaken here. Would be good if ""Intel 4"" can compete!
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - chelical 5y ago
    Intel's numbers are theoretical. They're still relying heavily on multi patterning for their current chips. They have yet to demonstrate competency with EUV. Intel 4 is also projected for 2023. Tsmc are producing 5nm chips right now.
hnburnsy 5y ago
>TSMC will win What do they win? More maket share, more revenue, more profits, better margins, competitors goes out of business? I know very little about this industry, but is the market big enough for all players to 'win'?
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > What do they win? More maket share, more revenue, more profits, better margins, competitors goes out of business? https://www.reuters.com/business/intel-details-mixed-source-chip-strategy-tsmc-partnerships-2021-08-19 https://www.reuters.com/business/intel-details-mixed-source-... > Intel said Thursday its "Alchemist" graphics chips will be made by TSMC using the latter's newly named "N6" chipmaking technology, an upgraded version of its "N7" technology. I mean, I guess they're already "winning". Intel's own chip-making group has begun to use TSMC. Hopefully Intel can figure something out about what its like to be a customer, so maybe they can be a better supplier? But yes: customers, market share, and knowledge. By having more customers, TSMC can perform more experiments on more leading edge nodes, like 3nm or smaller.

SavantIdiot 5y ago

Up until the kaboom, microprocessors have become a commodity. Granted one with huge startup costs, but a commodity nonetheless. (There's a reason why Intel used to be top forbes company, and why today it is still stuck in the $100-200B market cap range compared to $2T amazons & apples.)