4 ms·

And do so with the clarity of hindisght.

cinntaile 5y ago
If you had invested in Facebook or Tesla around their IPO you would be a contrarian though. Facebook less so than Tesla maybe, but not a lot of people seemed to believe that they would stick around.
- shapefrog 5y ago
  By the very nature of an IPO there is basically 1 seller the company (and in many cases the insiders) who are selling to 10's or 100's of thousands of buyers, private and institutional. Hint: The contrarian here is not the thousands of people/institutions/funds buying on the float.
  - cinntaile 5y ago
    It depends on how many would want to invest in those companies and how many wouldn't. If you have 10000 buyers but 100000 that wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole then those 10000 buyers are still contrarians. (Partly) cashing out isn't by definition contrarian.
    - shapefrog 5y ago
      Having 0 position is not the opposite of having 100 shares; -100 shares is the opposite. By your definition owning an iPhone is contrarian, because there are only 1billion people with iPhones.
      - cinntaile 5y ago
        Contrarian just means holding a position the majority doesn't hold. Although reality is not that clearcut as you aptly pointed out. Most investors didn't think Facebook or Tesla were good investments, hence investing in those stocks is a contrarian position. To use your example, I would consider choosing to not use a smartphone to be a contrarian position while having an iPhone is not.
aerosmile 5y ago
That's the whole point, you invest in people once they've had significant traction. I think Dustin Moskovitz is a strong candidate, along with Brian Armstrong and as mentioned earlier Max Levchin and Jack Dorsey. PG's YC and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund are only accessible to HNWIs. If you can get your hands on secondary shares, Patrick Collison, Parker Conrad and Ryan Peterson would be at the top of my list. Last but not least, I bet that Mikhail Kokorich will go public again, despite all the turbulence.

If you had invested in Facebook or Tesla around their IPO you would be a contrarian though. Facebook less so than Tesla maybe, but not a lot of people seemed to believe that they would stick around.

shapefrog 5y ago
By the very nature of an IPO there is basically 1 seller the company (and in many cases the insiders) who are selling to 10's or 100's of thousands of buyers, private and institutional. Hint: The contrarian here is not the thousands of people/institutions/funds buying on the float.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  It depends on how many would want to invest in those companies and how many wouldn't. If you have 10000 buyers but 100000 that wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole then those 10000 buyers are still contrarians. (Partly) cashing out isn't by definition contrarian.
  - shapefrog 5y ago
    Having 0 position is not the opposite of having 100 shares; -100 shares is the opposite. By your definition owning an iPhone is contrarian, because there are only 1billion people with iPhones.
    - cinntaile 5y ago
      Contrarian just means holding a position the majority doesn't hold. Although reality is not that clearcut as you aptly pointed out. Most investors didn't think Facebook or Tesla were good investments, hence investing in those stocks is a contrarian position. To use your example, I would consider choosing to not use a smartphone to be a contrarian position while having an iPhone is not.

aerosmile 5y ago

That's the whole point, you invest in people once they've had significant traction. I think Dustin Moskovitz is a strong candidate, along with Brian Armstrong and as mentioned earlier Max Levchin and Jack Dorsey. PG's YC and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund are only accessible to HNWIs. If you can get your hands on secondary shares, Patrick Collison, Parker Conrad and Ryan Peterson would be at the top of my list. Last but not least, I bet that Mikhail Kokorich will go public again, despite all the turbulence.