I know quite a few conventional entrepreneurs that I wouldn't consider smart in a general context, but are extremely well versed in what they do. Experience wi

I know quite a few conventional entrepreneurs that I wouldn't consider smart in a general context, but are extremely well versed in what they do. Experience will help you to develop an instinct, and once you understand why everything is the way it is, you need to focus on finding an edge/making a difference/having an impact. This takes time, experimentation, and most of all the willingness and ability to fail, while you gain deeper and new insights. Willingness comes from personal grit and belief, but ability usually comes from your network, venture capital, a rich family, or having a successful business in the first place... Following Taleb's ideas, I'd say that, to find your edge, it would make more sense to try something new 52 weeks in a row, instead of spending 52 weeks on a single idea. Assume you have the grit and ability to experiment, then you still need a heuristic to determine which ideas are worth pursuing, and that's where luck comes in. Markets do not behave rationally, so reasoning can only bring you so far. "How to be successful" formulas could be compared to the "how to draw an owl" meme [0]: you need grit, the ability to experiment, and hope that this combination will eventually put you in the perfect context at a time where everything aligns, and where you take the decision to pursue the correct opportunity... [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/eccj2/how_to_draw_an_owl/ https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/eccj2/how_to_draw_an...