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> it's impossible to beat the market consistently (it's not) Is there any proof of that? Some traders of course will get very rich, just like some lottery-pla
by galaxyLogic 5y ago
> it's impossible to beat the market consistently (it's not)
Is there any proof of that? Some traders of course will get very rich, just like some lottery-players.
- csee 5y ago> Is there any proof of that? Some traders of course will get very rich, just like some lottery-players. If we're talking about short-term traders, yes. There's firms and traders that make money almost every day of the year. If we're talking about investors with 4 week+ holding periods, then I agree the evidence is much more flimsy and the luck explanation (or risk premium explanation) can apply very often (or all the time).
- Panzer04 5y agoLook up renaissance technologies. More quant than typical investing, but it proves that beating the market is possible
- mmmrk 5y agoI recently read an interesting German article on them (use Google Translate if necessary) and they paint a more nuanced picture of Renaissance. https://www.gerd-kommer-invest.de/der-beste-fonds-aller-zeiten/ https://www.gerd-kommer-invest.de/der-beste-fonds-aller-zeit...
- carnitine 5y agoTry actually modelling it. People like to hand-wave the outperformers as luck, but the chance of just one of the top firms existing by chance alone is basically impossible.
- vasco 5y agoRead this piece from 1984 addressing this topic. The core point being if you find a group of people with some proximity and they're all lotto winners, as you put it, maybe there's something else to explain it: https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/sup...
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]