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> Figure out how to get to a global population of 4 billion: ie massive family planning drive in Africa/West Asia encouraging 1/0 children. Quick way to start

> Figure out how to get to a global population of 4 billion: ie massive family planning drive in Africa/West Asia encouraging 1/0 children. Quick way to start a war, and not one that could be won without committing grave crimes against humanity which would obviate the need for such a policy to begin with.

consumer451 5y ago
The proven way to reduce population growth is via economic growth. It has worked everywhere it has been applied. We should be carpet bombing Africa with books, higher-ed, and investment. No genocide necessary. The only problem with this plan is that it is far too boring/liberal/naive for a significant portion of decision makers.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  > The proven way to reduce population growth is via economic growth. It has worked everywhere it has been applied. After observing the impact the biosphere has experienced with developed countries and developing countries industrializing, do you believe it will support the same for another 4 billion people? My evidence that it will not is enumerated below. I would agree that policies that help African women become as empowered and wealthy as fast as possible (which reduces the total number of children had [1]) would be the key to success, if done in a manner that does not increase per capita GHG emissions, meat consumption, and all the other negative impacts of per capita wealth growth. If Africa gets wealthy and pumps out CO2 and methane from autos, factory farming, fossil electrical generation, and clear cutting for ag production, that is not a net positive. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-... (Our World In Data: What explains the change in the number of children women have?) https://www.nationalgeographic.org/topics/resource-library-human-impacts-environment/ https://www.nationalgeographic.org/topics/resource-library-h... https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/fish-and-overfishing https://ourworldindata.org/fish-and-overfishing https://ourworldindata.org/excess-fertilizer https://ourworldindata.org/excess-fertilizer https://ourworldindata.org/diet-affordability https://ourworldindata.org/diet-affordability https://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index-decline https://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index-decline https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/farmers-are-facing-a-phosphorus-crisis-the-solution-starts-with-soil https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/farmers-a...
  - iammisc 5y ago
    How many times will Malthus be proven wrong before we can stop rehashing the same argument?
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      I mean, was he proven wrong? How many people face food and water insecurity daily (~2 billion and ~3 billion, respectively)? Life is not binary, it is a spectrum of quality of life, and hope is not a strategy. The damage we’ve done is clear (see my citations above), as is what we’d do on our way from 7.4 billion to 11 billion people (by 2100). Population and resource contention are inherently linked.
      - iammisc 5y ago
        Fewer people face food and water insecurity today than ever before.
- iammisc 5y ago
  Sure, but that's not a family planning drive so much as an education drive.
- Factorium 5y ago
  We don't have the global resources or time to support mass industrialisation of Africa (1 billion people projected to go to 4 billion by 2100). Its unclear if that's even possible given that some of these societies face serious issues in terms of equality for women, value of education, fair application of law, systematic corruption and tribalism, etc. Many of these problems are imbued in the religious/cultural bedrock of those places. Look at what has happened in Afghanistan where after 20 years of Western intervention, the country has reset to its 'default' almost overnight. We should view the level of development in Europe, NA, East Asia as the exception to the human condition, not the norm. We need to just skip to the end game: education for women, contraception, abortion, incentives for having zero/one child, no food aid.
  - consumer451 5y ago
    > Look at what has happened in Afghanistan where after 20 years of Western intervention, the country has reset to its 'default' almost overnight. Unfortunately The Project For a New American Century did not include Predator drones armed with Kindles preloaded with Wikipedia. I realize I am over simplifying this here, but Afghanistan was mostly a DOD project when it should have been State. > We need to just skip to the end game: education for women, contraception, abortion ... I can agree with this. > incentives for having zero/one child, This appears to be built-in to education and economic growth. > no food aid. I assume you mean the aid-based long term plans, which have proven problematic. Famine aid should be given in my opinion.
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    "societies face serious issues in terms of equality for women, value of education, fair application of law, systematic corruption and tribalism" You know why South Korea is prosperous? It recieved more in development aid than all of africa combined Currently only China is really investing in Africa. While issues you highlighted are serious, these countries were treated very unfairly economically. Do you know what it's like trying to trade with a western megacorp as an african farmer? Can you imagine what its like trying to get a loan to open a business?
- dzhiurgis 5y ago
  China already has Africa covered
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  The problem is that economic growth usually requires energy...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

consumer451 5y ago

The proven way to reduce population growth is via economic growth. It has worked everywhere it has been applied. We should be carpet bombing Africa with books, higher-ed, and investment. No genocide necessary. The only problem with this plan is that it is far too boring/liberal/naive for a significant portion of decision makers.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
> The proven way to reduce population growth is via economic growth. It has worked everywhere it has been applied. After observing the impact the biosphere has experienced with developed countries and developing countries industrializing, do you believe it will support the same for another 4 billion people? My evidence that it will not is enumerated below. I would agree that policies that help African women become as empowered and wealthy as fast as possible (which reduces the total number of children had [1]) would be the key to success, if done in a manner that does not increase per capita GHG emissions, meat consumption, and all the other negative impacts of per capita wealth growth. If Africa gets wealthy and pumps out CO2 and methane from autos, factory farming, fossil electrical generation, and clear cutting for ag production, that is not a net positive. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-... (Our World In Data: What explains the change in the number of children women have?) https://www.nationalgeographic.org/topics/resource-library-human-impacts-environment/ https://www.nationalgeographic.org/topics/resource-library-h... https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/fish-and-overfishing https://ourworldindata.org/fish-and-overfishing https://ourworldindata.org/excess-fertilizer https://ourworldindata.org/excess-fertilizer https://ourworldindata.org/diet-affordability https://ourworldindata.org/diet-affordability https://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index-decline https://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index-decline https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/farmers-are-facing-a-phosphorus-crisis-the-solution-starts-with-soil https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/farmers-a...
- iammisc 5y ago
  How many times will Malthus be proven wrong before we can stop rehashing the same argument?
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    I mean, was he proven wrong? How many people face food and water insecurity daily (~2 billion and ~3 billion, respectively)? Life is not binary, it is a spectrum of quality of life, and hope is not a strategy. The damage we’ve done is clear (see my citations above), as is what we’d do on our way from 7.4 billion to 11 billion people (by 2100). Population and resource contention are inherently linked.
    - iammisc 5y ago
      Fewer people face food and water insecurity today than ever before.
iammisc 5y ago
Sure, but that's not a family planning drive so much as an education drive.
Factorium 5y ago
We don't have the global resources or time to support mass industrialisation of Africa (1 billion people projected to go to 4 billion by 2100). Its unclear if that's even possible given that some of these societies face serious issues in terms of equality for women, value of education, fair application of law, systematic corruption and tribalism, etc. Many of these problems are imbued in the religious/cultural bedrock of those places. Look at what has happened in Afghanistan where after 20 years of Western intervention, the country has reset to its 'default' almost overnight. We should view the level of development in Europe, NA, East Asia as the exception to the human condition, not the norm. We need to just skip to the end game: education for women, contraception, abortion, incentives for having zero/one child, no food aid.
- consumer451 5y ago
  > Look at what has happened in Afghanistan where after 20 years of Western intervention, the country has reset to its 'default' almost overnight. Unfortunately The Project For a New American Century did not include Predator drones armed with Kindles preloaded with Wikipedia. I realize I am over simplifying this here, but Afghanistan was mostly a DOD project when it should have been State. > We need to just skip to the end game: education for women, contraception, abortion ... I can agree with this. > incentives for having zero/one child, This appears to be built-in to education and economic growth. > no food aid. I assume you mean the aid-based long term plans, which have proven problematic. Famine aid should be given in my opinion.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  "societies face serious issues in terms of equality for women, value of education, fair application of law, systematic corruption and tribalism" You know why South Korea is prosperous? It recieved more in development aid than all of africa combined Currently only China is really investing in Africa. While issues you highlighted are serious, these countries were treated very unfairly economically. Do you know what it's like trying to trade with a western megacorp as an african farmer? Can you imagine what its like trying to get a loan to open a business?
dzhiurgis 5y ago
China already has Africa covered
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
The problem is that economic growth usually requires energy...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]