4 ms·

I feel similarly having grown up near a computer when I was young. I can't imagine had I grown up busy farming and raising siblings and then children in my 20s

I feel similarly having grown up near a computer when I was young. I can't imagine had I grown up busy farming and raising siblings and then children in my 20s I would have been able to accomplish anything at all. Or the fact that I got a rare fever from a tick as a child only a few years after an antidote was invented. The _vast_ majority of the pi-chart other than intelligence is luck.

solveit 5y ago
I mean, intelligence is also luck. And (as much as people hate this), so is conscientiousness. At some point we have to acknowledge that dividing things into luck and not-luck is incoherent, and that we should use more useful axes.
- gonehome 5y ago
  We're competing with each other via billions of years of selection - there are major advantages if you're smart (and if you're pretty). You can also add the quality PG is talking about here which requires some amount of smartness as a prereq (curiosity?). I'm not sure how much it can really be cultivated above baseline, but it'd be interesting to know more. I'd guess there are some strategies, but a lot may still be tied to your inborn stats. I'd argue we should strive for a society where the suffering you're exposed to if you're unlucky enough to be in the bottom quartile is bounded, while still allowing for the top to be unbounded in pushing humanity forward. Accepting there's natural variance here is part of that. We're not all the same, things aren't fair. We shouldn't ignore that or pretend otherwise, but we also shouldn't think that means those dealt a bad genetic hand need to be totally screwed in our society (imo) and it doesn't mean you need to handicap the outliers on the other side in some Bergeron like pursuit of 'fairness' [0]. [0]: http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html Also related on the prettiness bit, this short story is good: https://waldyrious.neocities.org/ted_chiang/liking-what-you-see-a-documentary.html https://waldyrious.neocities.org/ted_chiang/liking-what-you-...
  - apineda 5y ago
    If the upperbound is unlimited doesn't the lower bound essentially converge to zero? Imagine the upper strata (literally and figuratively) in flying cars and flying restaurants. The simple farm house would now seem like a desolate situation. Or would it?
    - gonehome 5y ago
      On the spectrum of possible intelligence human variance is small so in practice this isn't really an issue. Though what you’re touching on is why misaligned AGI is an e-risk.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    In our current context, selectively there are disadvantages if you are smart.
  - atq2119 5y ago
    > I'd argue we should strive for a society where the suffering you're exposed to if you're unlucky enough to be in the bottom quartile is bounded, while still allowing for the top to be unbounded in pushing humanity forward. FWIW, being unbounded in pushing humanity forward is different from being unbounded in pushing your individual wealth up, so those aren't really two sides of the same topic. Or perhaps you really meant something different from what you wrote, because what you really meant doesn't sound so nice. I'll second the recommendation of the Ted Chiang short story, it's well worth a read.
    - gonehome 5y ago
      They're often related (look at Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, etc.) - I think it's good that the upper quartile creates new wealth (usually through reinvesting and building stuff). I think it's reasonable to try to structure things so that wealth doesn't give too much outsized political influence (easier said than done). Allowing the incentives of unbounded wealth creation at the top is desirable imo.
- cm2012 5y ago
  I think it should be split into two graphs, practical and moral. Practically, we all have to pretend we have free will. Hard work, diligence and deferment of the present for the future should be encouraged. Morally, we shouldn't judge people who struggle with the above. "There but for the grace of god go I", etc etc. Society should try to be kind to all, resources permitting.
  - diskzero 5y ago
    Kindness does indeed seem to be lacking. I constantly remind myself that all work is noble and aspire to extend empathy, compassion and sympathy to others.
    - achenet 5y ago
      Thank you for doing that. I try to do the same. :)
  - handrous 5y ago
    > "There but for the grace of god go I" I love this sentiment, and it's one of a few I try to keep at the ready. I think it's underrated, as simple lanes to guide one's thinking go. I'm all-around much better, including more content, FWIW, when successfully holding that lane in-place. I mean, yeah, it's basically just one of the key heuristics of practicing Stoicism, plus a hundred other practical ethical frameworks and religions, but I think the particular framing & phrasing is especially apt.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
winternett 5y ago
The kids I grew up with in High School that attended the "Gifted And Talented" courses didn't really end up topping the gene pool after I met them at our 20 year reunion. The girl from our year book voted "most likely to succeed", did not meet her goals of being president, and probably may never do so... She actually had some rough life experiences like me too since then... I no longer have childhood goals of exceptionalism as a desire, nor the right social and political positioning for the role, not the right contacts or money. I just want to be happy and live on a tropical beach with a good wife and good kids without money problems to be honest. Exceptionalism in this world is indeed luck, especially when you consider that there are almost 7 billion other people on this planet besides us, and limited world resources to share amongst us all... To think that any one individual reached a point of higher talent or intelligence than everyone else is a total consumerism-driven lie. Movies and TV create celebrities because it drives profit and merchandise, not because they really feel the actors they back are unique and worthy. We find out often the people branded as "exceptional" suffer greatly for it very often because they gain popularity and consequently can't live up to the standards portrayed of them. The biggest lie we can tell ourselves is that we're exceptional beyond everyone or anyone else, physically, spiritually, mentally, or in any other way. Somehow there's an ever present ideal pushed by Gyms, Churches, Psychologists, News Media, TV, and Movies that exceptionalism can exist, but it's simply not sustainable for any individual, and there's a pile of discarded celebrities down the hill by the river in Hollywood to prove it... Once we're humble in life, and we realize that opportunity, paying attention, learning things, proper positioning, luck, and circumstance are what grant us the most potential for success -- It's the actions that we take to seize opportunities, THOSE ACTIONS WE TAKE are what set us apart from others who may be hesitant, not ready for, and/or unaware of and to the present opportunity. When we reach points of success, it's important to remind ourselves of others and their situations and to not look down upon them, and to help others to succeed as much as possible in order to not feel isolated in ego and self praise. I may sound like the Dali Lama here, but fighting against our own internal ego in a world like this one is a constant battle, so I work hard every day to keep everything in this kind of context in my own life, and I'm not perfect just like everyone else. Whenever I'm driving my car out in public though, everyone's a "frickin' idiot", that will never change... :P
diskzero 5y ago
Don't underestimate ones ability to adapt and change their circumstances. I am a sample size of one, but I grew up busy farming and raising siblings. It is true that I was exposed to computers in the 80s, but didn't own one. In my mid-twenties I was able to re-orient my life, fail and succeed at startups, work at Be, Eazel, Apple, Amazon and more. I have spent the last couple of years teaching adults whose backgrounds are filled with shocking adversity to think like programmers, build new careers and improve their lives. I am constantly amazed. Modern medicine is miraculous. There is no doubt a vast amount of human potential has been saved from oblivion.
mikewave 5y ago
> I can't imagine had I grown up busy farming and raising siblings and then children in my 20s I would have been able to accomplish anything at all. This really depends how you frame 'accomplishment', which is very much up to you. I think that successfully raising children who can successfully raise children is in and of itself an accomplishment; forming a family and keeping it intact through your inevitable troubles, working the land and producing enough excess food to earn everything else you need... our culture would be better if we actually viewed such people as 'accomplished' instead of pretending that being a C-suite officer of some SaaS b2b griftware is inherently of more value to anyone, anywhere.

solveit 5y ago

I mean, intelligence is also luck. And (as much as people hate this), so is conscientiousness. At some point we have to acknowledge that dividing things into luck and not-luck is incoherent, and that we should use more useful axes.

gonehome 5y ago
We're competing with each other via billions of years of selection - there are major advantages if you're smart (and if you're pretty). You can also add the quality PG is talking about here which requires some amount of smartness as a prereq (curiosity?). I'm not sure how much it can really be cultivated above baseline, but it'd be interesting to know more. I'd guess there are some strategies, but a lot may still be tied to your inborn stats. I'd argue we should strive for a society where the suffering you're exposed to if you're unlucky enough to be in the bottom quartile is bounded, while still allowing for the top to be unbounded in pushing humanity forward. Accepting there's natural variance here is part of that. We're not all the same, things aren't fair. We shouldn't ignore that or pretend otherwise, but we also shouldn't think that means those dealt a bad genetic hand need to be totally screwed in our society (imo) and it doesn't mean you need to handicap the outliers on the other side in some Bergeron like pursuit of 'fairness' [0]. [0]: http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html Also related on the prettiness bit, this short story is good: https://waldyrious.neocities.org/ted_chiang/liking-what-you-see-a-documentary.html https://waldyrious.neocities.org/ted_chiang/liking-what-you-...
- apineda 5y ago
  If the upperbound is unlimited doesn't the lower bound essentially converge to zero? Imagine the upper strata (literally and figuratively) in flying cars and flying restaurants. The simple farm house would now seem like a desolate situation. Or would it?
  - gonehome 5y ago
    On the spectrum of possible intelligence human variance is small so in practice this isn't really an issue. Though what you’re touching on is why misaligned AGI is an e-risk.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  In our current context, selectively there are disadvantages if you are smart.
- atq2119 5y ago
  > I'd argue we should strive for a society where the suffering you're exposed to if you're unlucky enough to be in the bottom quartile is bounded, while still allowing for the top to be unbounded in pushing humanity forward. FWIW, being unbounded in pushing humanity forward is different from being unbounded in pushing your individual wealth up, so those aren't really two sides of the same topic. Or perhaps you really meant something different from what you wrote, because what you really meant doesn't sound so nice. I'll second the recommendation of the Ted Chiang short story, it's well worth a read.
  - gonehome 5y ago
    They're often related (look at Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, etc.) - I think it's good that the upper quartile creates new wealth (usually through reinvesting and building stuff). I think it's reasonable to try to structure things so that wealth doesn't give too much outsized political influence (easier said than done). Allowing the incentives of unbounded wealth creation at the top is desirable imo.
cm2012 5y ago
I think it should be split into two graphs, practical and moral. Practically, we all have to pretend we have free will. Hard work, diligence and deferment of the present for the future should be encouraged. Morally, we shouldn't judge people who struggle with the above. "There but for the grace of god go I", etc etc. Society should try to be kind to all, resources permitting.
- diskzero 5y ago
  Kindness does indeed seem to be lacking. I constantly remind myself that all work is noble and aspire to extend empathy, compassion and sympathy to others.
  - achenet 5y ago
    Thank you for doing that. I try to do the same. :)
- handrous 5y ago
  > "There but for the grace of god go I" I love this sentiment, and it's one of a few I try to keep at the ready. I think it's underrated, as simple lanes to guide one's thinking go. I'm all-around much better, including more content, FWIW, when successfully holding that lane in-place. I mean, yeah, it's basically just one of the key heuristics of practicing Stoicism, plus a hundred other practical ethical frameworks and religions, but I think the particular framing & phrasing is especially apt.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

winternett 5y ago

The kids I grew up with in High School that attended the "Gifted And Talented" courses didn't really end up topping the gene pool after I met them at our 20 year reunion. The girl from our year book voted "most likely to succeed", did not meet her goals of being president, and probably may never do so... She actually had some rough life experiences like me too since then... I no longer have childhood goals of exceptionalism as a desire, nor the right social and political positioning for the role, not the right contacts or money. I just want to be happy and live on a tropical beach with a good wife and good kids without money problems to be honest. Exceptionalism in this world is indeed luck, especially when you consider that there are almost 7 billion other people on this planet besides us, and limited world resources to share amongst us all... To think that any one individual reached a point of higher talent or intelligence than everyone else is a total consumerism-driven lie. Movies and TV create celebrities because it drives profit and merchandise, not because they really feel the actors they back are unique and worthy. We find out often the people branded as "exceptional" suffer greatly for it very often because they gain popularity and consequently can't live up to the standards portrayed of them. The biggest lie we can tell ourselves is that we're exceptional beyond everyone or anyone else, physically, spiritually, mentally, or in any other way. Somehow there's an ever present ideal pushed by Gyms, Churches, Psychologists, News Media, TV, and Movies that exceptionalism can exist, but it's simply not sustainable for any individual, and there's a pile of discarded celebrities down the hill by the river in Hollywood to prove it... Once we're humble in life, and we realize that opportunity, paying attention, learning things, proper positioning, luck, and circumstance are what grant us the most potential for success -- It's the actions that we take to seize opportunities, THOSE ACTIONS WE TAKE are what set us apart from others who may be hesitant, not ready for, and/or unaware of and to the present opportunity. When we reach points of success, it's important to remind ourselves of others and their situations and to not look down upon them, and to help others to succeed as much as possible in order to not feel isolated in ego and self praise. I may sound like the Dali Lama here, but fighting against our own internal ego in a world like this one is a constant battle, so I work hard every day to keep everything in this kind of context in my own life, and I'm not perfect just like everyone else. Whenever I'm driving my car out in public though, everyone's a "frickin' idiot", that will never change... :P

diskzero 5y ago

Don't underestimate ones ability to adapt and change their circumstances. I am a sample size of one, but I grew up busy farming and raising siblings. It is true that I was exposed to computers in the 80s, but didn't own one. In my mid-twenties I was able to re-orient my life, fail and succeed at startups, work at Be, Eazel, Apple, Amazon and more. I have spent the last couple of years teaching adults whose backgrounds are filled with shocking adversity to think like programmers, build new careers and improve their lives. I am constantly amazed. Modern medicine is miraculous. There is no doubt a vast amount of human potential has been saved from oblivion.

mikewave 5y ago

> I can't imagine had I grown up busy farming and raising siblings and then children in my 20s I would have been able to accomplish anything at all. This really depends how you frame 'accomplishment', which is very much up to you. I think that successfully raising children who can successfully raise children is in and of itself an accomplishment; forming a family and keeping it intact through your inevitable troubles, working the land and producing enough excess food to earn everything else you need... our culture would be better if we actually viewed such people as 'accomplished' instead of pretending that being a C-suite officer of some SaaS b2b griftware is inherently of more value to anyone, anywhere.