4 ms·

How long does "full protection" last? This doesn't seem sustainable.

by eniact 5y ago

persedes 5y ago
Last I heard 6 months? That's basically where we're at with the annual flu shots.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  There are breakthrough cases in individuals who have been fully vaccinated for ~2 months. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4308373 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4308373 October 7, 2021: > During a press conference on Thursday, Taipei City Deputy Mayor Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊) announced that genomic sequencing revealed that a China Airlines first officer in her 40s, who received her second dose of the Moderna vaccine in early August (case No. 16,377), contracted the Delta variant of COVID-19.
  - sterlind 5y ago
    how likely is that?
    - LurkingPenguin 5y ago
      Who knows? Since the majority of healthy vaccinated individuals who get a breakthrough infection are likely to have mild symptoms or be totally asymptomatic, I'd imagine most breakthroughs are not being detected in most places. In this case, the individual (who was ostensibly healthy as she's in her 40s and working as a pilot) was asymptomatic and her infection was only detected because Taiwan has strict border controls that require quarantine and multiple tests. Also worth noting that Moderna appears to be the most efficacious of the vaccines (probably due to its higher amount of mRNA) and even then, it's possible to catch a breakthrough after a couple of months.
      - persedes 5y ago
        I think what the previous comment alluded to was that your mixing up efficacy with overall duration of protection. But re you're "Who knows", there are studies[0] that tracked the same group of people over a course of time after vaccination. So if you have a 90% efficacy after being fully immunized, you can still get covid. The data in that study indicated that efficacy after 6 months was at 50%. So now you're even more likely to get covid. As a comparison: The influenza / flu vaccine is around 40-60% effective against infection. [0] - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
        LurkingPenguin 5y ago
        > I think what the previous comment alluded to was that your mixing up efficacy with overall duration of protection. But re you're "Who knows", there are studies[0] that tracked the same group of people over a course of time after vaccination. I'm not mixing anything up. We simply don't know precisely how many breakthroughs there are at any stage after vaccination. It does seem logical that many if not most breakthroughs are not being caught. The case I cited was only caught because the individual was a pilot and residing in a country with strict border that require regular testing. It's not clear from the study you cited what the testing criteria was but it does not look like they were testing all the subjects (members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California) continuously. That's simply would not be feasible. We do know that Pfizer's protection starts to decline after around 2 months, so it seems likely that the case I cited was probably not an extreme outlier and efficacy against infection is probably overestimated even in the first few months. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211008/pfizer-vaccine-protection-may-wane-after-2-months https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021100... Of course, breakthrough cases shouldn't be a problem. The problem is that there are unrealistic expectations around sterilizing immunity. > As a comparison: The influenza / flu vaccine is around 40-60% effective against infection. But we're not shutting society down every year for flu, are we?
        persedes 5y ago

How long does "full protection" last? This doesn't seem sustainable.

by eniact 5y ago

How long does "full protection" last? This doesn't seem sustainable.

persedes 5y ago

Last I heard 6 months? That's basically where we're at with the annual flu shots.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
There are breakthrough cases in individuals who have been fully vaccinated for ~2 months. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4308373 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4308373 October 7, 2021: > During a press conference on Thursday, Taipei City Deputy Mayor Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊) announced that genomic sequencing revealed that a China Airlines first officer in her 40s, who received her second dose of the Moderna vaccine in early August (case No. 16,377), contracted the Delta variant of COVID-19.
- sterlind 5y ago
  how likely is that?
  - LurkingPenguin 5y ago
    Who knows? Since the majority of healthy vaccinated individuals who get a breakthrough infection are likely to have mild symptoms or be totally asymptomatic, I'd imagine most breakthroughs are not being detected in most places. In this case, the individual (who was ostensibly healthy as she's in her 40s and working as a pilot) was asymptomatic and her infection was only detected because Taiwan has strict border controls that require quarantine and multiple tests. Also worth noting that Moderna appears to be the most efficacious of the vaccines (probably due to its higher amount of mRNA) and even then, it's possible to catch a breakthrough after a couple of months.
    - persedes 5y ago
      I think what the previous comment alluded to was that your mixing up efficacy with overall duration of protection. But re you're "Who knows", there are studies[0] that tracked the same group of people over a course of time after vaccination. So if you have a 90% efficacy after being fully immunized, you can still get covid. The data in that study indicated that efficacy after 6 months was at 50%. So now you're even more likely to get covid. As a comparison: The influenza / flu vaccine is around 40-60% effective against infection. [0] - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
      - LurkingPenguin 5y ago
        > I think what the previous comment alluded to was that your mixing up efficacy with overall duration of protection. But re you're "Who knows", there are studies[0] that tracked the same group of people over a course of time after vaccination. I'm not mixing anything up. We simply don't know precisely how many breakthroughs there are at any stage after vaccination. It does seem logical that many if not most breakthroughs are not being caught. The case I cited was only caught because the individual was a pilot and residing in a country with strict border that require regular testing. It's not clear from the study you cited what the testing criteria was but it does not look like they were testing all the subjects (members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California) continuously. That's simply would not be feasible. We do know that Pfizer's protection starts to decline after around 2 months, so it seems likely that the case I cited was probably not an extreme outlier and efficacy against infection is probably overestimated even in the first few months. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211008/pfizer-vaccine-protection-may-wane-after-2-months https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021100... Of course, breakthrough cases shouldn't be a problem. The problem is that there are unrealistic expectations around sterilizing immunity. > As a comparison: The influenza / flu vaccine is around 40-60% effective against infection. But we're not shutting society down every year for flu, are we?
        persedes 5y ago