4 ms·

theres nothing wrong with trucks or semis, my problem is all these projects are unfinished. it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently

theres nothing wrong with trucks or semis, my problem is all these projects are unfinished. it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes. Also this is a corporation so these are all expenses until they turn a profit. You could argue that they need to do something with all the investor money they get, and i would agree but i just think its too much ongoing at once. > Seems pretty clear that one of the reason for this is recruitment, they explicitly said so this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing, i didnt even mention tesla solar. > Its really just air-pressure release valve. Its not as crazy as it sound you dont need to explain how itll work, i know already, and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks (even disregarding the safety of it all) > The literally just signed a huge deal to expand the Loop in Las Vegas. the economics of the loop make no sense. its not profitable now, and whether they expand that will not change anything. They need FSD for the loop to be worthwhile, and theyve shown already that their current tech is unable to navigate the tunnel without a human driver. > They haven't done it because they are limited on battery and chips. They can currently grow without inducing more products. Each Semi would mean 4 less Model Y. sounds like an excuse to me, it may be true but then as a CEO its irresponsible to announce youll ship semis in 2020 and almost two years later its still not on the market. Maybe dont make promises before you know they're realizable at scale i didnt even mention in the original post, tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc), Hyperloop, building tunneling machines. i understand these arent owned by tesla. But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time.

panick21_ 5y ago
> it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes The goal of company is not to make as many projects as possible, but to make money. It simply makes no strategic sense to create more products while they are growing 50% a year with existing products. They will bring these products to market when it makes sense. > this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing Tesla is not a small company anymore, they have lots of profit and free cashflow. They need to start series long term research projects and investments to continue that. > and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks There is no reason it wouldn't work, people have done the math on this. Its not just about speed but also about handling. > the economics of the loop make no sense Great that you have so much knowledge of that. Please share the detailed economic model. They are underbidding the competition on a number of projects and I for one no longer bet that Musk companies will go bankrupt. > They need FSD No they don't. Its a much simpler and much more constrained problem. > tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc) I think you mean Tesla Energy. Battery packs are no-brainer for them. Solar roof is a bit pointless I would agree. But I don't think Musk spends much time on it. > Hyperloop Not an active project. This is literally a 7 year old blue paper. Boring company might restart something like it eventually. > But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Well if you are gone mention Boring company then SpaceX is far bigger distraction. But the thing is, these other ventures have existed for many, many years. Some since Tesla existed. > Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time. I mean its fair enough but reality is Tesla is increasingly a really large vertically integrated company. Elon Musk can't (and never could) oversee every project all the time. As a company of the size of Tesla with their growth aspirations they need to have many projects in flight. Tesla recruits many smart people and need to have project for them to work on. Semi and Cybertruck are the sensible next products and they need to be ready so working on them is total no-brainer. I think among people not obsessed with the details, not delivering Semi might matter. But generally doesn't hurt their reputation because most people don't know or care.
- penjelly 5y ago
  i feel like you agree with me in your opening statement they ARE saying they'll bring these products to market. im not going to refute all your points but you have an extremely optimistic view. Loop NEEDS fsd because basically right now its a taxi service and every single driver needs to be paid. have you heard of buses? theyre economically cheaper. People have done the math on this and its contrary to your point. If you want contrary points just lookup thunderfoot on youtube. hes the one who convinced me to stop investing in tesla.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    > you have an extremely optimistic view. Its extremely optimistic that a company that is proven to be able t build EV at scale (literally the biggest EV company in the world) and is growing 50% a year can introduce a new EVs and work on research projects at the same time? That a company that is the largest buyer of batteries in the world can make strage systems with those batteries? Maybe the timelines are to short but the idea that its not realistic is just nonsense. > Loop NEEDS fsd because basically right now its a taxi service and every single driver needs to be paid. Again, just because it has drivers now doesn't mean it needs to be capable of FSD. Its an extremely limited well mapped area on dedicated lanes. Totally different requirement. > have you heard of buses? theyre economically cheaper Just because you prefer some other solution doesn't mean something you don't like isn't viable. > People have done the math on this and its contrary to your point. Are these the same people that said Tesla could never reach volume production, EV would never be profitable, orbital rockets couldn't land and that rocket reuse would never be economical? Again, can you please show me detailed cost model and not just 'people' (whole likely work for competitors) did some napkin math and said it wasn't competitive. > If you want contrary points just lookup thunderfoot on youtube You realize with this statement you have immediately disqualified yourself from any discussion. He is basically a youtube troll who generates clicks from gullible Musk hater. I mean seriously, his video are just embracing to watch in their incompetence. If you actually use him as a source for what works and what doesn't you have no credibility. In the space community, meaning people space journalist, and people who professionally analyze space his is basically regard as a joke. He directly contradicts what former SpaceX employees say, what former Astronauts say and so on. He doesn't believe things in offical NASA reports and so on. Literally no credibility. For Tesla you have people like Sandy Munro, former lead engineer at Ford and leading an independent shop consulting on automotive production with 50 years experience who comment on issues like production. And instead you believe some guy with no actual industry experience who clearly does not have accuracy as his first goal, but rather showing how much smarter he is. The guy is a joke that produces video like it was 2005. I mean if he is so amazingly smart that he can reason about every single engineering project in the world why can't he make a video that looks doesn't look like a 8 year old put together. Seriously, there are people on yt who spend 100s of hours researching videos, talking in detail to engineers from all over the industry and build connections, find publicly available papers and patents. TheLimitingFactor on yt validates each video with a number of experts on the subject before he releases it. While thunderfoot basically just spends 90% insulting people and then 10% showing some misleading data about something that he didn't understand in the first place. You have seriously been taking in by a charlatan. > hes the one who convinced me to stop investing in tesla. If thunderfoot is the sum of your research on these topics then you shouldn't have invested in the first place.

panick21_ 5y ago

> it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes The goal of company is not to make as many projects as possible, but to make money. It simply makes no strategic sense to create more products while they are growing 50% a year with existing products. They will bring these products to market when it makes sense. > this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing Tesla is not a small company anymore, they have lots of profit and free cashflow. They need to start series long term research projects and investments to continue that. > and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks There is no reason it wouldn't work, people have done the math on this. Its not just about speed but also about handling. > the economics of the loop make no sense Great that you have so much knowledge of that. Please share the detailed economic model. They are underbidding the competition on a number of projects and I for one no longer bet that Musk companies will go bankrupt. > They need FSD No they don't. Its a much simpler and much more constrained problem. > tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc) I think you mean Tesla Energy. Battery packs are no-brainer for them. Solar roof is a bit pointless I would agree. But I don't think Musk spends much time on it. > Hyperloop Not an active project. This is literally a 7 year old blue paper. Boring company might restart something like it eventually. > But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Well if you are gone mention Boring company then SpaceX is far bigger distraction. But the thing is, these other ventures have existed for many, many years. Some since Tesla existed. > Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time. I mean its fair enough but reality is Tesla is increasingly a really large vertically integrated company. Elon Musk can't (and never could) oversee every project all the time. As a company of the size of Tesla with their growth aspirations they need to have many projects in flight. Tesla recruits many smart people and need to have project for them to work on. Semi and Cybertruck are the sensible next products and they need to be ready so working on them is total no-brainer. I think among people not obsessed with the details, not delivering Semi might matter. But generally doesn't hurt their reputation because most people don't know or care.

penjelly 5y ago
i feel like you agree with me in your opening statement they ARE saying they'll bring these products to market. im not going to refute all your points but you have an extremely optimistic view. Loop NEEDS fsd because basically right now its a taxi service and every single driver needs to be paid. have you heard of buses? theyre economically cheaper. People have done the math on this and its contrary to your point. If you want contrary points just lookup thunderfoot on youtube. hes the one who convinced me to stop investing in tesla.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  > you have an extremely optimistic view. Its extremely optimistic that a company that is proven to be able t build EV at scale (literally the biggest EV company in the world) and is growing 50% a year can introduce a new EVs and work on research projects at the same time? That a company that is the largest buyer of batteries in the world can make strage systems with those batteries? Maybe the timelines are to short but the idea that its not realistic is just nonsense. > Loop NEEDS fsd because basically right now its a taxi service and every single driver needs to be paid. Again, just because it has drivers now doesn't mean it needs to be capable of FSD. Its an extremely limited well mapped area on dedicated lanes. Totally different requirement. > have you heard of buses? theyre economically cheaper Just because you prefer some other solution doesn't mean something you don't like isn't viable. > People have done the math on this and its contrary to your point. Are these the same people that said Tesla could never reach volume production, EV would never be profitable, orbital rockets couldn't land and that rocket reuse would never be economical? Again, can you please show me detailed cost model and not just 'people' (whole likely work for competitors) did some napkin math and said it wasn't competitive. > If you want contrary points just lookup thunderfoot on youtube You realize with this statement you have immediately disqualified yourself from any discussion. He is basically a youtube troll who generates clicks from gullible Musk hater. I mean seriously, his video are just embracing to watch in their incompetence. If you actually use him as a source for what works and what doesn't you have no credibility. In the space community, meaning people space journalist, and people who professionally analyze space his is basically regard as a joke. He directly contradicts what former SpaceX employees say, what former Astronauts say and so on. He doesn't believe things in offical NASA reports and so on. Literally no credibility. For Tesla you have people like Sandy Munro, former lead engineer at Ford and leading an independent shop consulting on automotive production with 50 years experience who comment on issues like production. And instead you believe some guy with no actual industry experience who clearly does not have accuracy as his first goal, but rather showing how much smarter he is. The guy is a joke that produces video like it was 2005. I mean if he is so amazingly smart that he can reason about every single engineering project in the world why can't he make a video that looks doesn't look like a 8 year old put together. Seriously, there are people on yt who spend 100s of hours researching videos, talking in detail to engineers from all over the industry and build connections, find publicly available papers and patents. TheLimitingFactor on yt validates each video with a number of experts on the subject before he releases it. While thunderfoot basically just spends 90% insulting people and then 10% showing some misleading data about something that he didn't understand in the first place. You have seriously been taking in by a charlatan. > hes the one who convinced me to stop investing in tesla. If thunderfoot is the sum of your research on these topics then you shouldn't have invested in the first place.