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What will the Gigafactory be doing? Does this mean Tesla's battery-supply advantage is gone?

by axus 5y ago

cma 5y ago
There is still no Tesla Semi after 4 years, so maybe the factory could be devoted to that, but even the gigafactory's battery cells don't make sense for a long range semi as originally shown. Bill Gates was right about the physics of it not making sense with those cells (too heavy for bridges with any decent payload), and they will need to turn it instead into a low range around-town Pepsi delivery tuck, as already announced.
- MrDunham 5y ago
  Even though I own a Tesla and love it I can’t see a fully electric, long-haul semi making sense for quite some time. For consumers (at least in my own experience) there is a range threshold that, once surpassed, means I almost never have to worry about fill ups again. So the Every day convenience outweighs the once or twice a year inconvenience of longer “fill ups“ vs gas for extended drives. I bought mine because I hate little annoyances like having to remember/go to the gas station and fill up periodically. For long-haul trucking though Tesla's benefits would be in automation/assisted driving, not in electrification. Short of some sort of carbon credits/regulations it’s difficult to imagine widespread adoption of a technology that has more downtime and higher initial costs than a previous technology. The stop/start of small truck deliveries (and subsequent energy recapture) makes sense but for long-haul I can’t see it feasible until the battery energy densities jump by a sizable margin without a corresponding increase in price. And at that point there's still few financial advantages of electrification I can think of... what am I missing there?
  - brianwawok 5y ago
    Many trucks return home daily. Why not get those 100% first?
    - cma 5y ago
      Delivery or recycling/garbage makes sense first, due to stop and go regen. Long range never made sense as a first step but the FSD replacing truckers and truck-train angle was used to lure in investors, even though it has no relevance to diesel vs. electric (or even better fit for diesel to power the compute without impacting range, remember we're talking 2017/2018 compute for when it was announced).
  - onethought 5y ago
    The power train on an electric vehicle is leagues more efficient than gas. With fast charging: 300kw+ I think it makes complete sense. Perhaps in super cold climates it starts getting silly though
  - __Joker 5y ago
    Semi and industrials where hydrogen fuel cell makes sense.
wffurr 5y ago
Presumably building NCA batteries for the Model S and long-range versions of the other models. Possibly building LFP batteries as well now that the patents have expired. The reason CATL has such a lead on LFP manufacturing is that they had a free license for using LFP patents for domestic consumption in China.
martythemaniak 5y ago
No, they'll be gobbling up any reasonably priced cell they can get their hands on for the foreseeable future. There was a part of Battery Day where they explain their approach to battery chemistry, here is the slide: https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/JvxPA/s1/2020-tesla-shareholders-meeting-and-battery-day.jpg https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/JvxPA/s1/2020-tesla-shareh... They say in the title "All Standard Range Teslas", but only the Model 3 has a standard range version and they're still like 2-3 years away from their compact/25K car.
- brianwawok 5y ago
  The Y had standard range for about a month and it seems to have sold well, but since they have a 6 month wait on long range, why bother right now?
  - stetrain 5y ago
    If batteries are the constraint, selling cars with smaller battery packs lets you sell more cars. If other parts of the car production are the constraint, stick with the big batteries and high prices.
stetrain 5y ago
Tesla is going to be using multiple battery chemistries for different vehicles. LFP is just for lower range vehicles where the advantages of LFP outweigh the decreased energy density. https://i.imgur.com/ycylklk.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/ycylklk.jpeg

What will the Gigafactory be doing? Does this mean Tesla's battery-supply advantage is gone?

by axus 5y ago

What will the Gigafactory be doing? Does this mean Tesla's battery-supply advantage is gone?

cma 5y ago

There is still no Tesla Semi after 4 years, so maybe the factory could be devoted to that, but even the gigafactory's battery cells don't make sense for a long range semi as originally shown. Bill Gates was right about the physics of it not making sense with those cells (too heavy for bridges with any decent payload), and they will need to turn it instead into a low range around-town Pepsi delivery tuck, as already announced.

MrDunham 5y ago
Even though I own a Tesla and love it I can’t see a fully electric, long-haul semi making sense for quite some time. For consumers (at least in my own experience) there is a range threshold that, once surpassed, means I almost never have to worry about fill ups again. So the Every day convenience outweighs the once or twice a year inconvenience of longer “fill ups“ vs gas for extended drives. I bought mine because I hate little annoyances like having to remember/go to the gas station and fill up periodically. For long-haul trucking though Tesla's benefits would be in automation/assisted driving, not in electrification. Short of some sort of carbon credits/regulations it’s difficult to imagine widespread adoption of a technology that has more downtime and higher initial costs than a previous technology. The stop/start of small truck deliveries (and subsequent energy recapture) makes sense but for long-haul I can’t see it feasible until the battery energy densities jump by a sizable margin without a corresponding increase in price. And at that point there's still few financial advantages of electrification I can think of... what am I missing there?
- brianwawok 5y ago
  Many trucks return home daily. Why not get those 100% first?
  - cma 5y ago
    Delivery or recycling/garbage makes sense first, due to stop and go regen. Long range never made sense as a first step but the FSD replacing truckers and truck-train angle was used to lure in investors, even though it has no relevance to diesel vs. electric (or even better fit for diesel to power the compute without impacting range, remember we're talking 2017/2018 compute for when it was announced).
- onethought 5y ago
  The power train on an electric vehicle is leagues more efficient than gas. With fast charging: 300kw+ I think it makes complete sense. Perhaps in super cold climates it starts getting silly though
- __Joker 5y ago
  Semi and industrials where hydrogen fuel cell makes sense.

wffurr 5y ago

Presumably building NCA batteries for the Model S and long-range versions of the other models. Possibly building LFP batteries as well now that the patents have expired. The reason CATL has such a lead on LFP manufacturing is that they had a free license for using LFP patents for domestic consumption in China.

martythemaniak 5y ago

No, they'll be gobbling up any reasonably priced cell they can get their hands on for the foreseeable future. There was a part of Battery Day where they explain their approach to battery chemistry, here is the slide: https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/JvxPA/s1/2020-tesla-shareholders-meeting-and-battery-day.jpg https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/JvxPA/s1/2020-tesla-shareh... They say in the title "All Standard Range Teslas", but only the Model 3 has a standard range version and they're still like 2-3 years away from their compact/25K car.

brianwawok 5y ago
The Y had standard range for about a month and it seems to have sold well, but since they have a 6 month wait on long range, why bother right now?
- stetrain 5y ago
  If batteries are the constraint, selling cars with smaller battery packs lets you sell more cars. If other parts of the car production are the constraint, stick with the big batteries and high prices.

stetrain 5y ago

Tesla is going to be using multiple battery chemistries for different vehicles. LFP is just for lower range vehicles where the advantages of LFP outweigh the decreased energy density. https://i.imgur.com/ycylklk.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/ycylklk.jpeg