You can get pretty close to "right and wrong" in the markets if you pick a strike price and expiration date, keeping in mind that "public expectations" are part

You can get pretty close to "right and wrong" in the markets if you pick a strike price and expiration date, keeping in mind that "public expectations" are part of the game. I think Taleb puts it well: “Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.”