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The problem is that now it's hydrogen's turn to do the same with batteries. Tesla is facing it's own disruptive threat, something it is completely unprepared to

by Hypx_ 5y ago

The problem is that now it's hydrogen's turn to do the same with batteries. Tesla is facing it's own disruptive threat, something it is completely unprepared to deal with.

gjm11 5y ago
You have made this and similar claims over and over again on HN, but you seem much more interested in making such claims than in supporting them, and your response when challenged has mostly been just to reiterate your statements that hydrogen fuel cells are better (for energy storage in cars) than batteries, or are inevitably going to replace batteries. It reads more like advertising than like actual discussion. What evidence is there that should lead us to expect hydrogen fuel cells to win over batteries, given (1) their currently much much higher costs, (2) their lower efficiency in turning electricity at the power station into kinetic energy of the car, (3) the currently much greater complexity of mechanisms required for a fuel-cell-based vehicle?
- HWR_14 5y ago
  (2) doesn't seem relevant, as generating hydrogen happens whenever electricity is cheap and charging cars happen whenever the care pulls up. Other that that, I thought hydrogen was cheaper than batteries. But I don't know much about it.
- BLKNSLVR 5y ago
  What I've read lines up with the three points you've made, so I tend to agree. However: What we're seeing in Australia is federal government support for hydrogen power after over a decade of strong resistance to alternatives (specifically renewables: wind and solar), and no support for electric vehicles at all. I'm definitely mixing together a few different areas of power / electricity / energy here, but the fact the Australian government is seizing upon hydrogen just makes my cynical mind assume that hydrogen manufacture and usage fits better with the status quo and therefore is easier to understand by those in power - ie. centralised / consolidated control as opposed to more consumer-level control. This could be Hydrogen's killer feature in the end.
  - wallacoloo 5y ago
    the infrastructure bill working its way through the US includes a few $billion in subsidies for hydrogen fuel, too. there’s a couple takes on why, but the most charitable one is that solar/wind/batteries have enough momentum that they don’t need subsidies, and govt views energy diversity as a valuable thing and is subsidizing hydrogen to achieve that.
  - Hypx_ 5y ago
    There is the possibility that Australia is simply correct in their assessment. They're a long ways away from both Silicon Valley and Brussels, and may be acting as an independent entity that is free from external influences.
    - lillecarl 5y ago
      Australia is a major suck-up to the US, the government of Australia is infringing on it's citizens freedom and releasing more co2 into the atmosphere per capita than any other country.
    - BLKNSLVR 5y ago
      I doubt physical distance has much to do with it. Australia is closer to China than the US, for example. Australia gets a LOT of sunshine and has a LOT of empty space, which is conducive to being solar friendly. Australia also exports a lot of coal and a lot or iron ore (which is then processed using coal-generated heat), which is conducive to promoting its value and suppressing any alternatives. Electric vehicles, however, work towards solving a specific national security problem for Australia in it's "domestic fuel security"[0][1][2][3]. A problem of which the UK is kindly highlighting the importance. [0]: https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/australias-lack-of-fuel-our-national-security-achilles-heel/news-story/494ddda75ae802b007d085a7727566cb https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/a... [1]: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-must-fast-track-new-domestic-storage-to-ensure-fuel-security/ https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-must-fast-track-... [2]: https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/7790-what-s-next-for-australian-fuel-reserves https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/7790-what-s-n... [3]: https://www.drive.com.au/news/government-scrambles-to-maintain-australias-fuel-security-in-federal-budget/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/government-scrambles-to-mainta...
- Hypx_ 5y ago
  The problem with (1) is that complaining about this is usually the last bastion of a dying industry. This is particularly true if the alternative is a completely new idea it would normally be much more expensive to begin with. So it would really just be a countdown until it is no longer true. The problem of (2) is that all attempts to generate electricity with renewables (and with no fossil fuel backups) have resulted in extreme problems. In short, when it is windy or sunny, you have too much electricity and no way of storing it. When it is not windy or sunny, you have nothing and are forced to resort to fossil fuels. Ultimately, it's being found out that being able to store electricity is far more important than making it efficient. And (3) is just dumb Ludditism. As if the small increase in complexity is any kind of problem. Fuel cells are far simpler than internal combustion engines after all. Batteries are actually worse from a supply chain standpoint since now you have a much higher need for certain elements that are not widely available.
  - rout39574 5y ago
    Your reply feels to me like blustering, and trying to shout down the question. Some data on why you think systemic hydrogen costs are going to catch up with systemic battery-electric costs, for example, would contribute to (1) far more than your posturing. You'd be a better advocate if you spoke to the issues.
    - Hypx_ 5y ago
      As it stands now, the biggest revolution in energy right now is the rapid reduction in hydrogen cost: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/06/24/low-cost-renewable-hydrogen-may-already-be-in-reach/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/06/24/low-cost-renewable-hy... Once things hit their exponential growth curve, things might happen a lot faster than people expect.
  - holoduke 5y ago
    I charge my car from my own solar panels. Cost me nearly nothing.
    - Hypx_ 5y ago
- caf 5y ago
  In my estimation, the ultimate problem with hydrogen isn't any of those three - it's that it's simply far less convenient than battery. Once someone has experienced what it's like to be able to "fill up" overnight at home for all their day-to-day driving, the idea of reverting to the old "visit the fuelling station once a week" routine seems decidedly passe. It could work for long-haul commercial vehicles though.
  - Hypx_ 5y ago
    Except no one drives at home. Every EV fan still complains about lack of public charging stations. I suspect few people really find home recharging as any kind of game changer.
    - caf 5y ago
      My experience is that complaints about lack of public charging stations tend to be more from those considering buying an EV than those actually with one. (Those who drive an EV tend to complain more about the maintenance of the public stations than the number of them).
      - Hypx_ 5y ago
        Same thing. Everyone uses public stations all the time.
        caf 5y ago
        They really don't. Pretty much anyone with the ability to charge at home, charges at home for all their day-to-day driving, with stops at charging stations used only for infrequent longer trips.
        Hypx_ 5y ago
        Only because they have to. If there was a way to recharge within 3 minutes publically, the home charging solution would be rarely used.
anonAndOn 5y ago
When do hydrogen roof panels come out? Will they be competitively priced with electric?
- Hypx_ 5y ago
  Actually they exist now. You can generate hydrogen directly for sunlight and a photocatalyst. Although we don't know how cost effective this is right now, and the traditional way of having a separate electrolyzer might be cheaper for the time being.
  - anonAndOn 5y ago
    How easy is it for someone handy to set up? Can the home hobbyist install a hydrogen refueling system in their garage with some panels up on the roof? (related: Does conduit handle hydrogen at 10,000psi or do I have to build it out of black iron?)
    - Hypx_ 5y ago
      Possible. In fact a company called LAVO is building a home hydrogen battery for energy storage. Although compressing it to 10,000 psi at home is not quite ready yet, although companies are working on it.

by Hypx_ 5y ago

The problem is that now it's hydrogen's turn to do the same with batteries. Tesla is facing it's own disruptive threat, something it is completely unprepared to deal with.

gjm11 5y ago

You have made this and similar claims over and over again on HN, but you seem much more interested in making such claims than in supporting them, and your response when challenged has mostly been just to reiterate your statements that hydrogen fuel cells are better (for energy storage in cars) than batteries, or are inevitably going to replace batteries. It reads more like advertising than like actual discussion. What evidence is there that should lead us to expect hydrogen fuel cells to win over batteries, given (1) their currently much much higher costs, (2) their lower efficiency in turning electricity at the power station into kinetic energy of the car, (3) the currently much greater complexity of mechanisms required for a fuel-cell-based vehicle?

HWR_14 5y ago
(2) doesn't seem relevant, as generating hydrogen happens whenever electricity is cheap and charging cars happen whenever the care pulls up. Other that that, I thought hydrogen was cheaper than batteries. But I don't know much about it.
BLKNSLVR 5y ago
What I've read lines up with the three points you've made, so I tend to agree. However: What we're seeing in Australia is federal government support for hydrogen power after over a decade of strong resistance to alternatives (specifically renewables: wind and solar), and no support for electric vehicles at all. I'm definitely mixing together a few different areas of power / electricity / energy here, but the fact the Australian government is seizing upon hydrogen just makes my cynical mind assume that hydrogen manufacture and usage fits better with the status quo and therefore is easier to understand by those in power - ie. centralised / consolidated control as opposed to more consumer-level control. This could be Hydrogen's killer feature in the end.
- wallacoloo 5y ago
  the infrastructure bill working its way through the US includes a few $billion in subsidies for hydrogen fuel, too. there’s a couple takes on why, but the most charitable one is that solar/wind/batteries have enough momentum that they don’t need subsidies, and govt views energy diversity as a valuable thing and is subsidizing hydrogen to achieve that.
- Hypx_ 5y ago
  There is the possibility that Australia is simply correct in their assessment. They're a long ways away from both Silicon Valley and Brussels, and may be acting as an independent entity that is free from external influences.
  - lillecarl 5y ago
    Australia is a major suck-up to the US, the government of Australia is infringing on it's citizens freedom and releasing more co2 into the atmosphere per capita than any other country.
  - BLKNSLVR 5y ago
    I doubt physical distance has much to do with it. Australia is closer to China than the US, for example. Australia gets a LOT of sunshine and has a LOT of empty space, which is conducive to being solar friendly. Australia also exports a lot of coal and a lot or iron ore (which is then processed using coal-generated heat), which is conducive to promoting its value and suppressing any alternatives. Electric vehicles, however, work towards solving a specific national security problem for Australia in it's "domestic fuel security"[0][1][2][3]. A problem of which the UK is kindly highlighting the importance. [0]: https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/australias-lack-of-fuel-our-national-security-achilles-heel/news-story/494ddda75ae802b007d085a7727566cb https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/a... [1]: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-must-fast-track-new-domestic-storage-to-ensure-fuel-security/ https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-must-fast-track-... [2]: https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/7790-what-s-next-for-australian-fuel-reserves https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/7790-what-s-n... [3]: https://www.drive.com.au/news/government-scrambles-to-maintain-australias-fuel-security-in-federal-budget/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/government-scrambles-to-mainta...
Hypx_ 5y ago
The problem with (1) is that complaining about this is usually the last bastion of a dying industry. This is particularly true if the alternative is a completely new idea it would normally be much more expensive to begin with. So it would really just be a countdown until it is no longer true. The problem of (2) is that all attempts to generate electricity with renewables (and with no fossil fuel backups) have resulted in extreme problems. In short, when it is windy or sunny, you have too much electricity and no way of storing it. When it is not windy or sunny, you have nothing and are forced to resort to fossil fuels. Ultimately, it's being found out that being able to store electricity is far more important than making it efficient. And (3) is just dumb Ludditism. As if the small increase in complexity is any kind of problem. Fuel cells are far simpler than internal combustion engines after all. Batteries are actually worse from a supply chain standpoint since now you have a much higher need for certain elements that are not widely available.
- rout39574 5y ago
  Your reply feels to me like blustering, and trying to shout down the question. Some data on why you think systemic hydrogen costs are going to catch up with systemic battery-electric costs, for example, would contribute to (1) far more than your posturing. You'd be a better advocate if you spoke to the issues.
  - Hypx_ 5y ago
    As it stands now, the biggest revolution in energy right now is the rapid reduction in hydrogen cost: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/06/24/low-cost-renewable-hydrogen-may-already-be-in-reach/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/06/24/low-cost-renewable-hy... Once things hit their exponential growth curve, things might happen a lot faster than people expect.
- holoduke 5y ago
  I charge my car from my own solar panels. Cost me nearly nothing.
  - Hypx_ 5y ago
caf 5y ago
In my estimation, the ultimate problem with hydrogen isn't any of those three - it's that it's simply far less convenient than battery. Once someone has experienced what it's like to be able to "fill up" overnight at home for all their day-to-day driving, the idea of reverting to the old "visit the fuelling station once a week" routine seems decidedly passe. It could work for long-haul commercial vehicles though.
- Hypx_ 5y ago
  Except no one drives at home. Every EV fan still complains about lack of public charging stations. I suspect few people really find home recharging as any kind of game changer.
  - caf 5y ago
    My experience is that complaints about lack of public charging stations tend to be more from those considering buying an EV than those actually with one. (Those who drive an EV tend to complain more about the maintenance of the public stations than the number of them).
    - Hypx_ 5y ago
      Same thing. Everyone uses public stations all the time.
      - caf 5y ago
        They really don't. Pretty much anyone with the ability to charge at home, charges at home for all their day-to-day driving, with stops at charging stations used only for infrequent longer trips.
        Hypx_ 5y ago
        Only because they have to. If there was a way to recharge within 3 minutes publically, the home charging solution would be rarely used.

anonAndOn 5y ago

When do hydrogen roof panels come out? Will they be competitively priced with electric?

Hypx_ 5y ago
Actually they exist now. You can generate hydrogen directly for sunlight and a photocatalyst. Although we don't know how cost effective this is right now, and the traditional way of having a separate electrolyzer might be cheaper for the time being.
- anonAndOn 5y ago
  How easy is it for someone handy to set up? Can the home hobbyist install a hydrogen refueling system in their garage with some panels up on the roof? (related: Does conduit handle hydrogen at 10,000psi or do I have to build it out of black iron?)
  - Hypx_ 5y ago
    Possible. In fact a company called LAVO is building a home hydrogen battery for energy storage. Although compressing it to 10,000 psi at home is not quite ready yet, although companies are working on it.