5 ms·

their market cap is now roughly equal to all other car makers combined Well, they currently sell far more passenger electric vehicles than every other auto mak

by NickM 5y ago

their market cap is now roughly equal to all other car makers combined Well, they currently sell far more passenger electric vehicles than every other auto maker combined, and demand only seems to be increasing even as production continues to increase exponentially. Many countries and US states have gasoline car bans set to take effect in the coming decades; if the incumbent manufacturers continue to lag behind Tesla as badly as they've done so far, it would seem Tesla is poised to eat a lot of other car companies for lunch. That alone still might not justify the current valuation, but then you add in their solar panels, solar roof tiles, stationary storage, and other things in the pipeline like insurance, renting out their EV charging network, possible AI applications and/or software licensing, etc. etc., and the valuation seems at least plausible to me.

andrepd 5y ago
I don't see how they "lag behind", it's clear that auto makers started seriously investing in electric 5-10 years ago and the investment is now bearing fruits: Hyundai for instances has excellent EVs at much lower prices than tesla.
- iknowstuff 5y ago
  None of them have "much lower prices" when you compare equal trims with similar features.
rreichman 5y ago
That may be true in the US but not in Europe [1] and not in China [2] [1] - https://insideevs.com/news/523295/europe-plugin-car-sales-june2021/ https://insideevs.com/news/523295/europe-plugin-car-sales-ju... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/Surging-EV-sales-put-China-ahead-of-government-targets2 https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/Sur...
- panick21_ 5y ago
  What matters is global market. The other manufactures push every possible vehicle into the markets that require it by regulation and drop prices in order to sell there. They are one of the leading producers in all of those markets as well. What you need to monitor is BEV not 'plugin'. And some of those other cars are tiny 4k$ cars that don't really compete with a Tesla anyway. Tesla is literally selling 2x more BEV then the second best company VW Group (including all brands). And in terms of revenue from BEV and profit from BEV they are way beyond that.
- NickM 5y ago
  Ah good point, I was just thinking about the US, you’re right. They are still growing in EU and Asia though, and a lot of the popular EVs in China are serving a completely different price segment that Tesla isn’t even trying to compete in yet.
dlp211 5y ago
You say this as the Ford F-150 Lighting is about to drop and there is a waiting list for the Ford Mach-E. I think the market is vastly underestimating the large incumbents ability to pivot into this sector and lower costs by leveraging their supply chain and scale. I don't think anything you said justifies their current market cap.
- pmorici 5y ago
  There is a waiting list because they aren’t making many of them.
- grecy 5y ago
  > You say this as the Ford F-150 Lighting is about to drop They're planning on making: 2022: 15,000 2023: 55,000 2024: 80,000 so that won't even put a dent in Tesla making well over a million electric vehicles per year. [1] https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ford-f-150-lightning-ev-production-doubled-due-to-demand-report https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ford-f-150-lightning-e...
- panick21_ 5y ago
  There are waiting lists for Mach-E because they can't make it enough. Go actually look how many Mach-E are produced compared to Tesla Model Y. There is a reason for that.
- beambot 5y ago
  Supply chains are in a dire state right now, with less-agile firms slow to adapt. And if you believe the thesis behind "Innovator's Dilemma" the scale tuned for ICE is a liability not an asset. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
- Diederich 5y ago
  Do you think battery availability is going to hinder the large incumbents' ability to scale here?
  - dlp211 5y ago
    I think this is their biggest challenge. I also think that companies like Ford, Toyota, etc. have centuries of combined experience of supply chain management and relationships that they can leverage. I also think that if these large companies are battery constrained, then so will Tesla, even if Tesla is able to capture more of the supply, it won't matter because customers will have to continue to go to Ford and Toyota for cars in a battery constrained world to get ICE vehicles.

by NickM 5y ago

andrepd 5y ago

I don't see how they "lag behind", it's clear that auto makers started seriously investing in electric 5-10 years ago and the investment is now bearing fruits: Hyundai for instances has excellent EVs at much lower prices than tesla.

iknowstuff 5y ago
None of them have "much lower prices" when you compare equal trims with similar features.

rreichman 5y ago

That may be true in the US but not in Europe [1] and not in China [2] [1] - https://insideevs.com/news/523295/europe-plugin-car-sales-june2021/ https://insideevs.com/news/523295/europe-plugin-car-sales-ju... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/Surging-EV-sales-put-China-ahead-of-government-targets2 https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/Sur...

panick21_ 5y ago
What matters is global market. The other manufactures push every possible vehicle into the markets that require it by regulation and drop prices in order to sell there. They are one of the leading producers in all of those markets as well. What you need to monitor is BEV not 'plugin'. And some of those other cars are tiny 4k$ cars that don't really compete with a Tesla anyway. Tesla is literally selling 2x more BEV then the second best company VW Group (including all brands). And in terms of revenue from BEV and profit from BEV they are way beyond that.
NickM 5y ago
Ah good point, I was just thinking about the US, you’re right. They are still growing in EU and Asia though, and a lot of the popular EVs in China are serving a completely different price segment that Tesla isn’t even trying to compete in yet.

dlp211 5y ago

You say this as the Ford F-150 Lighting is about to drop and there is a waiting list for the Ford Mach-E. I think the market is vastly underestimating the large incumbents ability to pivot into this sector and lower costs by leveraging their supply chain and scale. I don't think anything you said justifies their current market cap.

pmorici 5y ago
There is a waiting list because they aren’t making many of them.
grecy 5y ago
> You say this as the Ford F-150 Lighting is about to drop They're planning on making: 2022: 15,000 2023: 55,000 2024: 80,000 so that won't even put a dent in Tesla making well over a million electric vehicles per year. [1] https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ford-f-150-lightning-ev-production-doubled-due-to-demand-report https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ford-f-150-lightning-e...
panick21_ 5y ago
There are waiting lists for Mach-E because they can't make it enough. Go actually look how many Mach-E are produced compared to Tesla Model Y. There is a reason for that.
beambot 5y ago
Supply chains are in a dire state right now, with less-agile firms slow to adapt. And if you believe the thesis behind "Innovator's Dilemma" the scale tuned for ICE is a liability not an asset. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Diederich 5y ago
Do you think battery availability is going to hinder the large incumbents' ability to scale here?
- dlp211 5y ago
  I think this is their biggest challenge. I also think that companies like Ford, Toyota, etc. have centuries of combined experience of supply chain management and relationships that they can leverage. I also think that if these large companies are battery constrained, then so will Tesla, even if Tesla is able to capture more of the supply, it won't matter because customers will have to continue to go to Ford and Toyota for cars in a battery constrained world to get ICE vehicles.