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If you sum the market cap of any leaders in any of those spaces you won't get anywhere close to Tesla's current valuation let alone fully realized valuation. I
by arcticbull 5y ago
If you sum the market cap of any leaders in any of those spaces you won't get anywhere close to Tesla's current valuation let alone fully realized valuation.
I'll include them as an AI company once their FSD model stops trying to kill YouTubers.
- Utilities: PGE is worth 22B.
- Insurance: Libery Mutual is 16B.
- Robotics and AI: ABB is 71B.
- Batteries: Panasonic is 30B.
- Cars: Toyota is 288B.
- Financing: Included in Toyota's valuation.
Ok so, if we sum all of these mature businesses together we get $427B, less than half of Tesla's current market cap. That's one heck of a bull case when you consider Toyota ships literally 10X as many cars as Tesla does, and all those other companies, you know, exist.
Anyone else I should huck onto the pile? There's still a half trillion dollars in market cap to make up for after all.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 5y agoE.ON seems bigger than PGE (assuming you go by market cap), and I have no clue who is actually the biggest. And these each seem to represent one single regional power company. OTOH, I didn't realize Tesla's market cap has grown that big. That is indeed kinda insane.
- trhway 5y agoYou miss that Tesla is better in a given space than any of the leaders you mentioned. And not just better. More importantly, and this is why it is better, is that Tesla is a tech company in each of those spaces - eg. PG&E is an utilities company while Tesla is a tech company in the electric energy space. That is the half-trillion you're looking for.
- DennisP 5y agoThe battery market is going to grow drastically if we keep building more wind/solar.
- arcticbull 5y agoFingers crossed we lean into nuclear instead but I suspect that won't happen to the extent it needs to.
- panick21_ 5y agoHaha, I want this as well but sadly we are not going in that direction. Basically no way to really invest in nuclear. Not enough hype for SPACs. Still hoping for the SpaceX of nuclear to emerge. This is my biggest 'beef' with Elon, I much rather he work on nuclear then trying to make solar roofs.
- arcticbull 5y agoRooftop solar is funny because it's by far the most dangerous kind of solar. People fall off installing those all the time. The deaths per TWh of generated electricity is a few orders of magnitude greater than nuclear. Industrial scale solar is still less safe than nuclear, but not by nearly as much.
- DennisP 5y agoUnless things change drastically at the NRC, we're not likely to have a SpaceX of nuclear in the US. Somebody like Seaborg might pull it off though.
- panick21_ 5y agoBy far the most likely are the Canadian companies. I really like Terrestrial Energy and Moltex Energy.
- DennisP 5y agoYep they're strong contenders. Canada's regulators have been pretty friendly. This presentation by Seaborg is pretty interesting though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-Dz9sfBKEg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-Dz9sfBKEg