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agreed. musk promises the moon and often doesn't deliver and always delivers late if at all. some examples of crazy promises: - humanoid robots - profitable tun

agreed. musk promises the moon and often doesn't deliver and always delivers late if at all. some examples of crazy promises: - humanoid robots - profitable tunnels/loop - rocket propelled cars - a semi - a truck - a network of cars that that can generate income for you passively by driving themselves around as a taxi service - cars that drive themselves that are safer then human drivers ... im not saying Tesla isn't successful and never delivers but it does seem exponential what musk promises and while i think it's possible, managing all these massive projects is probably too much for the company. the humanoid robots thing for me really make me feel like he's just feeding investor hysteria. (i was a former musk fanboy)

coliveira 5y ago
And to continue the cycle, he uses the crazy valuation to get more capital and deliver a small part of what he promises, starting the cycle again. It is a hype-enabled bubble that nobody knows when will stop.
skohan 5y ago
I had the same reaction to the humanoid robot announcement. Totally impractical, but a great excuse for investors to throw money at Tesla on the assumption that they will "solve the labor shortage" in a frothy environment where FOMO is enough to drive stock prices.
panick21_ 5y ago
> - humanoid robots They literally started work on this a few months ago and didn't announce a product. Are they not allowed to do research? Seems pretty clear that one of the reason for this is recruitment, they explicitly said so. As an investor I don't expect any profit from this anytime soon. > - profitable tunnels/loop The literally just signed a huge deal to expand the Loop in Las Vegas. They successfully bid on a number of other projects as well. They are testing their next generation tunneling machine. That is not Tesla btw. different company. > - rocket propelled cars Its really just air-pressure release valve. Its not as crazy as it sound. It will happen eventually but only for a maybe a few 100 cars. Again, not really all that relevant, just like most Hypercar products by big car companies. I think it will happen in a couple year but its basically just a 'look we are better then you' project. - a semi Why is that crazy? They haven't done it because they are limited on battery and chips. They can currently grow without inducing more products. Each Semi would mean 4 less Model Y. They are working on the Semi and related Mega chargers. They have multible test vehicles on the roads. They just recently set up a bunch of Mega chargers in Nevada. - a truck Again, they are setting up a factory and battery factory next to it. This is clearly going to happen and when it does it will be at large volume. A vehicle program being a few month delayed isn't really special. > - cars that drive themselves I don't think it will happen anytime soon but Tesla is at the forefront of making it happen in the general case that is enough for me. This doesn't really seem crazy, other car companies have cars, trucks and semi in their lineup as well.
- penjelly 5y ago
  theres nothing wrong with trucks or semis, my problem is all these projects are unfinished. it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes. Also this is a corporation so these are all expenses until they turn a profit. You could argue that they need to do something with all the investor money they get, and i would agree but i just think its too much ongoing at once. > Seems pretty clear that one of the reason for this is recruitment, they explicitly said so this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing, i didnt even mention tesla solar. > Its really just air-pressure release valve. Its not as crazy as it sound you dont need to explain how itll work, i know already, and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks (even disregarding the safety of it all) > The literally just signed a huge deal to expand the Loop in Las Vegas. the economics of the loop make no sense. its not profitable now, and whether they expand that will not change anything. They need FSD for the loop to be worthwhile, and theyve shown already that their current tech is unable to navigate the tunnel without a human driver. > They haven't done it because they are limited on battery and chips. They can currently grow without inducing more products. Each Semi would mean 4 less Model Y. sounds like an excuse to me, it may be true but then as a CEO its irresponsible to announce youll ship semis in 2020 and almost two years later its still not on the market. Maybe dont make promises before you know they're realizable at scale i didnt even mention in the original post, tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc), Hyperloop, building tunneling machines. i understand these arent owned by tesla. But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    > it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes The goal of company is not to make as many projects as possible, but to make money. It simply makes no strategic sense to create more products while they are growing 50% a year with existing products. They will bring these products to market when it makes sense. > this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing Tesla is not a small company anymore, they have lots of profit and free cashflow. They need to start series long term research projects and investments to continue that. > and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks There is no reason it wouldn't work, people have done the math on this. Its not just about speed but also about handling. > the economics of the loop make no sense Great that you have so much knowledge of that. Please share the detailed economic model. They are underbidding the competition on a number of projects and I for one no longer bet that Musk companies will go bankrupt. > They need FSD No they don't. Its a much simpler and much more constrained problem. > tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc) I think you mean Tesla Energy. Battery packs are no-brainer for them. Solar roof is a bit pointless I would agree. But I don't think Musk spends much time on it. > Hyperloop Not an active project. This is literally a 7 year old blue paper. Boring company might restart something like it eventually. > But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Well if you are gone mention Boring company then SpaceX is far bigger distraction. But the thing is, these other ventures have existed for many, many years. Some since Tesla existed. > Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time. I mean its fair enough but reality is Tesla is increasingly a really large vertically integrated company. Elon Musk can't (and never could) oversee every project all the time. As a company of the size of Tesla with their growth aspirations they need to have many projects in flight. Tesla recruits many smart people and need to have project for them to work on. Semi and Cybertruck are the sensible next products and they need to be ready so working on them is total no-brainer. I think among people not obsessed with the details, not delivering Semi might matter. But generally doesn't hurt their reputation because most people don't know or care.

coliveira 5y ago

And to continue the cycle, he uses the crazy valuation to get more capital and deliver a small part of what he promises, starting the cycle again. It is a hype-enabled bubble that nobody knows when will stop.

skohan 5y ago

I had the same reaction to the humanoid robot announcement. Totally impractical, but a great excuse for investors to throw money at Tesla on the assumption that they will "solve the labor shortage" in a frothy environment where FOMO is enough to drive stock prices.

panick21_ 5y ago

> - humanoid robots They literally started work on this a few months ago and didn't announce a product. Are they not allowed to do research? Seems pretty clear that one of the reason for this is recruitment, they explicitly said so. As an investor I don't expect any profit from this anytime soon. > - profitable tunnels/loop The literally just signed a huge deal to expand the Loop in Las Vegas. They successfully bid on a number of other projects as well. They are testing their next generation tunneling machine. That is not Tesla btw. different company. > - rocket propelled cars Its really just air-pressure release valve. Its not as crazy as it sound. It will happen eventually but only for a maybe a few 100 cars. Again, not really all that relevant, just like most Hypercar products by big car companies. I think it will happen in a couple year but its basically just a 'look we are better then you' project. - a semi Why is that crazy? They haven't done it because they are limited on battery and chips. They can currently grow without inducing more products. Each Semi would mean 4 less Model Y. They are working on the Semi and related Mega chargers. They have multible test vehicles on the roads. They just recently set up a bunch of Mega chargers in Nevada. - a truck Again, they are setting up a factory and battery factory next to it. This is clearly going to happen and when it does it will be at large volume. A vehicle program being a few month delayed isn't really special. > - cars that drive themselves I don't think it will happen anytime soon but Tesla is at the forefront of making it happen in the general case that is enough for me. This doesn't really seem crazy, other car companies have cars, trucks and semi in their lineup as well.

penjelly 5y ago
theres nothing wrong with trucks or semis, my problem is all these projects are unfinished. it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes. Also this is a corporation so these are all expenses until they turn a profit. You could argue that they need to do something with all the investor money they get, and i would agree but i just think its too much ongoing at once. > Seems pretty clear that one of the reason for this is recruitment, they explicitly said so this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing, i didnt even mention tesla solar. > Its really just air-pressure release valve. Its not as crazy as it sound you dont need to explain how itll work, i know already, and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks (even disregarding the safety of it all) > The literally just signed a huge deal to expand the Loop in Las Vegas. the economics of the loop make no sense. its not profitable now, and whether they expand that will not change anything. They need FSD for the loop to be worthwhile, and theyve shown already that their current tech is unable to navigate the tunnel without a human driver. > They haven't done it because they are limited on battery and chips. They can currently grow without inducing more products. Each Semi would mean 4 less Model Y. sounds like an excuse to me, it may be true but then as a CEO its irresponsible to announce youll ship semis in 2020 and almost two years later its still not on the market. Maybe dont make promises before you know they're realizable at scale i didnt even mention in the original post, tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc), Hyperloop, building tunneling machines. i understand these arent owned by tesla. But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  > it reminds me of the hobby developer who starts projects frequently but never finishes The goal of company is not to make as many projects as possible, but to make money. It simply makes no strategic sense to create more products while they are growing 50% a year with existing products. They will bring these products to market when it makes sense. > this doesnt change my opinion on whether they should dive into robotics while having 5-8 other major projects ongoing Tesla is not a small company anymore, they have lots of profit and free cashflow. They need to start series long term research projects and investments to continue that. > and i think it wont work in practice, or at least its not worth the marginal speed increase for the added weight of the pressurized tanks There is no reason it wouldn't work, people have done the math on this. Its not just about speed but also about handling. > the economics of the loop make no sense Great that you have so much knowledge of that. Please share the detailed economic model. They are underbidding the competition on a number of projects and I for one no longer bet that Musk companies will go bankrupt. > They need FSD No they don't. Its a much simpler and much more constrained problem. > tesla solar (roof tiles, battery bank, etc) I think you mean Tesla Energy. Battery packs are no-brainer for them. Solar roof is a bit pointless I would agree. But I don't think Musk spends much time on it. > Hyperloop Not an active project. This is literally a 7 year old blue paper. Boring company might restart something like it eventually. > But theyre still managed in part by musk and he has stated he splits his time between all his ventures. Well if you are gone mention Boring company then SpaceX is far bigger distraction. But the thing is, these other ventures have existed for many, many years. Some since Tesla existed. > Again my issue is with the number of, and scope of each project, and their reputation to deliver on time. I mean its fair enough but reality is Tesla is increasingly a really large vertically integrated company. Elon Musk can't (and never could) oversee every project all the time. As a company of the size of Tesla with their growth aspirations they need to have many projects in flight. Tesla recruits many smart people and need to have project for them to work on. Semi and Cybertruck are the sensible next products and they need to be ready so working on them is total no-brainer. I think among people not obsessed with the details, not delivering Semi might matter. But generally doesn't hurt their reputation because most people don't know or care.