I don’t care whatsoever what so-called experts think. This is how I evaluate risk: 1. Are we dealing with complex mechanisms that are not fully understood? (in

I don’t care whatsoever what so-called experts think. This is how I evaluate risk: 1. Are we dealing with complex mechanisms that are not fully understood? (in this case, human biology and immune response) 2. Are we operating in an environment that is itself complex and weakly understood? (in this case, the broader ecosystem including other viruses and new variants) 3. Do we have clear channels/signals of information? (do we have all the reliable and comparable stats we’d like, anything approaching controlled experimental data etc) 4. Are there incentives for people to distort the information? (are their significant monetary and political factors weighing on outcomes) Left as exercise to the reader to apply this to covid.