3 ms·

How will Tesla keep current margins once every other car company is releasing high quality electric cars?

dd36 5y ago
Battery costs. It has a substantial lead and should continue to as it is far ahead in terms of scaling and reducing cost.
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  You think Tesla will have cheaper batteries than literally everyone else forever? Incredibly hard for me to believe that at least one company won't be able to create a competing battery. Differentiating on hardware has never been a way to create a trillion dollar company. It requires lock in via incredibly brand loyalty and Tesla doesn't have a big enough customer base atm.
  - dd36 5y ago
    Not forever but long enough to become the leader. Apple continues to innovate despite plenty of opportunity for everyone else to catch up.
darth_avocado 5y ago
> Once every other company is releasing high quality electric cars? Like who exactly? Only the American automakers are taking this seriously. Most have them have a target of maybe 50% of their offerings to be electric by 2030. Some European brands are now starting to play serious VW at the forefront of it. And the ones resisting the most are the Japanese. Mazda doesn’t even commit to a hybrid and realizing more efficient ICs coming soon in 2024. Toyota and Honda are actively seeking to block incentives to EV makers. And even if startups like Rivian or big players like Ford,GM and VW eventually start making cars at a much better quality, they still have to match the level of vertical integration that Tesla has. The lead they have is no joke.
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  Audi doesn't even have an R&D team for engines at this point. They're all in on electric, Mercedes is on a similar track. I'm not saying other companies will catch up soon, but Tesla needs to sustain their advantage for literally decades for this valuation to make sense. 10 years isn't enough. I've heard very good things about Fords EVs. Battery tech way behind Tesla, but they're already starting to take some of Tesla's market.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    Audi is a VW subsidiary. And VW's CEO (Herbert Diess) has said they don't expect to overtake Tesla, they just hope not to die trying to survive the transition.
    - rpmisms 5y ago
      Diess also invited Elon to speak at an internal meeting, specifically to help them understand how to make the transition faster. VW wants to survive.
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  > Like who exactly? Only the American automakers are taking this seriously. Sorry, what now? In Europe, Tesla's market share is below 20%, because they're being outcompeted by Volkswagen and Renault. But European car makers aren't taking EVs seriously?
  - darth_avocado 5y ago
    Couple of things. 1. I acknowledged VW as the only group seriously invested in EV 2. The statistics you mention only Europe, but if you look at US market, two thirds of the first half sales this year was Tesla, the next two Chevy (GM) and ford. Total accounting for 80% of the sales. 3. In your statistics, Tesla + VW account for 40% of the market share in EU, but your statistics is based on including PHEVs which lets be honest, isn’t exactly the same product as a BEV. If you remove the PHEVs, then Tesla suddenly starts looking a lot better. 4. And even if PHEVs were part of it, the top selling cars include ford, Kia and Hyundai. Yeah, European car makers are definitely playing catch up (with the exception of VW like I said)
rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
We've been hearing this since 2012. And yet...
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  Competing electric cars didn't really start being any good until this year. They will continue to catch up over the next decade.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    Why now? Tesla are also improving and, from what we know, they're making bigger better (megacasting, cell to pack, FSD computers, etc). What's the competition's plan exactly? They'll be hard at work to try not to cannibalize their ICE sales in the meantime, too, since their resources to invest in BEV comes from ICE sales.
    - dlp211 5y ago
      By 2026 the F-150 Lightning will be the #1 selling EV in America. That is a bet I am absolutely willing to make.

dd36 5y ago

Battery costs. It has a substantial lead and should continue to as it is far ahead in terms of scaling and reducing cost.

colinmhayes 5y ago
You think Tesla will have cheaper batteries than literally everyone else forever? Incredibly hard for me to believe that at least one company won't be able to create a competing battery. Differentiating on hardware has never been a way to create a trillion dollar company. It requires lock in via incredibly brand loyalty and Tesla doesn't have a big enough customer base atm.
- dd36 5y ago
  Not forever but long enough to become the leader. Apple continues to innovate despite plenty of opportunity for everyone else to catch up.

darth_avocado 5y ago

> Once every other company is releasing high quality electric cars? Like who exactly? Only the American automakers are taking this seriously. Most have them have a target of maybe 50% of their offerings to be electric by 2030. Some European brands are now starting to play serious VW at the forefront of it. And the ones resisting the most are the Japanese. Mazda doesn’t even commit to a hybrid and realizing more efficient ICs coming soon in 2024. Toyota and Honda are actively seeking to block incentives to EV makers. And even if startups like Rivian or big players like Ford,GM and VW eventually start making cars at a much better quality, they still have to match the level of vertical integration that Tesla has. The lead they have is no joke.

colinmhayes 5y ago
Audi doesn't even have an R&D team for engines at this point. They're all in on electric, Mercedes is on a similar track. I'm not saying other companies will catch up soon, but Tesla needs to sustain their advantage for literally decades for this valuation to make sense. 10 years isn't enough. I've heard very good things about Fords EVs. Battery tech way behind Tesla, but they're already starting to take some of Tesla's market.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  Audi is a VW subsidiary. And VW's CEO (Herbert Diess) has said they don't expect to overtake Tesla, they just hope not to die trying to survive the transition.
  - rpmisms 5y ago
    Diess also invited Elon to speak at an internal meeting, specifically to help them understand how to make the transition faster. VW wants to survive.
henrikschroder 5y ago
> Like who exactly? Only the American automakers are taking this seriously. Sorry, what now? In Europe, Tesla's market share is below 20%, because they're being outcompeted by Volkswagen and Renault. But European car makers aren't taking EVs seriously?
- darth_avocado 5y ago
  Couple of things. 1. I acknowledged VW as the only group seriously invested in EV 2. The statistics you mention only Europe, but if you look at US market, two thirds of the first half sales this year was Tesla, the next two Chevy (GM) and ford. Total accounting for 80% of the sales. 3. In your statistics, Tesla + VW account for 40% of the market share in EU, but your statistics is based on including PHEVs which lets be honest, isn’t exactly the same product as a BEV. If you remove the PHEVs, then Tesla suddenly starts looking a lot better. 4. And even if PHEVs were part of it, the top selling cars include ford, Kia and Hyundai. Yeah, European car makers are definitely playing catch up (with the exception of VW like I said)

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago

We've been hearing this since 2012. And yet...

colinmhayes 5y ago
Competing electric cars didn't really start being any good until this year. They will continue to catch up over the next decade.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  Why now? Tesla are also improving and, from what we know, they're making bigger better (megacasting, cell to pack, FSD computers, etc). What's the competition's plan exactly? They'll be hard at work to try not to cannibalize their ICE sales in the meantime, too, since their resources to invest in BEV comes from ICE sales.
  - dlp211 5y ago
    By 2026 the F-150 Lightning will be the #1 selling EV in America. That is a bet I am absolutely willing to make.