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The math barely works out even if they were to sell half the new cars sold every year. Tesla bulls are insane.

panick21_ 5y ago
I simply believe in their continued innovation. They have great strategy their current strategy makes them dominate in a number of industries that are all gone grow massively. And they have consistently made the right decisions. People on HN might not like their approach to development of Self-Driving but they have invested a huge amount in deep neural nets and all the infrastructure around, including their own chips. They might well be able to sell access to that chip for example. Tesla is deep into batteries already and is building a huge team including research and vertically integration into the machines, mining, precurser production and so on. That expertise can eventually be used in a number of ways. I believe Tesla in a few years will seriously go after electric flight. I believe they have the talent to pull that off, maybe in cooperation with SpaceX. Its the logical next step. They have one of the world leading materials development departments as well, shared with SpaceX. They have the electronics, software talent and manufacturing to go into many other industries as well. I simply believe in their execution and strategy in the long term. People said they were crazy to make their own cars, they should just go to a contract manufacturer. But then they wouldn't have 30% margin right now. This kind of story will repeat itself.
colinmhayes 5y ago
Tesla valuation only makes sense if they become a huge player in batteries/other household electronic devices and keep their dominant car margins while gaining market share.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  >if they become a huge player in batteries They're already number one, worldwide, and by far. >keep their dominant car margins while gaining market share. They're doing both at the same time.
  - colinmhayes 5y ago
    It's certainly possible, just seems unlikely now that other car makers are releasing electric cars that are actually good.
  - ac29 5y ago
    > They're already number one, worldwide, and by far. Source? The only info I can find in a quick search shows they have the largest single factory, but other manufacturers are larger in aggregate, and Telsa is only a small part of the overall market: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1246713/largest-lithium-ion-battery-factories-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1246713/largest-lithium-... edit: here's a better source, showing them not even number one for Electric Vehicles https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-top-10-ev-battery-makers https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-top-10-ev-battery-makers
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
      lol, CATL's first customer is Tesla. LG is also a major Tesla supplier. Idem for Pana and Samsung. Even BYD is expected to sell their cells to Tesla (under review as we speak). These players are fighting for Tesla's contracts, and Tesla will keep buying all their batteries while adding their own production capacity (search for "project roadrunner"). What matters is 'who has access to the end customers' and to the best tech. Tesla has so much demand from grid operator that they can easily buy all the supply. They're just limited by their own production / assembly / installation capacity.
rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
A company with 50% of revenue growth, 30% of automotive gross margin, almost unlimited demand (99% of global auto sales are still non-EV and Tesla's brand is just starting to become familiar), still zero ad spending, huge new markets like solar generation and stationary storage where they continue to have a massive lead in technology... Can you name one company in such a position? Tesla price-to-earning ration based on Q3 2021 income is 147, and dropping like a stone. Looks cheap to me.

I simply believe in their continued innovation. They have great strategy their current strategy makes them dominate in a number of industries that are all gone grow massively. And they have consistently made the right decisions. People on HN might not like their approach to development of Self-Driving but they have invested a huge amount in deep neural nets and all the infrastructure around, including their own chips. They might well be able to sell access to that chip for example. Tesla is deep into batteries already and is building a huge team including research and vertically integration into the machines, mining, precurser production and so on. That expertise can eventually be used in a number of ways. I believe Tesla in a few years will seriously go after electric flight. I believe they have the talent to pull that off, maybe in cooperation with SpaceX. Its the logical next step. They have one of the world leading materials development departments as well, shared with SpaceX. They have the electronics, software talent and manufacturing to go into many other industries as well. I simply believe in their execution and strategy in the long term. People said they were crazy to make their own cars, they should just go to a contract manufacturer. But then they wouldn't have 30% margin right now. This kind of story will repeat itself.

colinmhayes 5y ago

Tesla valuation only makes sense if they become a huge player in batteries/other household electronic devices and keep their dominant car margins while gaining market share.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
>if they become a huge player in batteries They're already number one, worldwide, and by far. >keep their dominant car margins while gaining market share. They're doing both at the same time.
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  It's certainly possible, just seems unlikely now that other car makers are releasing electric cars that are actually good.
- ac29 5y ago
  > They're already number one, worldwide, and by far. Source? The only info I can find in a quick search shows they have the largest single factory, but other manufacturers are larger in aggregate, and Telsa is only a small part of the overall market: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1246713/largest-lithium-ion-battery-factories-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1246713/largest-lithium-... edit: here's a better source, showing them not even number one for Electric Vehicles https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-top-10-ev-battery-makers https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-top-10-ev-battery-makers
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    lol, CATL's first customer is Tesla. LG is also a major Tesla supplier. Idem for Pana and Samsung. Even BYD is expected to sell their cells to Tesla (under review as we speak). These players are fighting for Tesla's contracts, and Tesla will keep buying all their batteries while adding their own production capacity (search for "project roadrunner"). What matters is 'who has access to the end customers' and to the best tech. Tesla has so much demand from grid operator that they can easily buy all the supply. They're just limited by their own production / assembly / installation capacity.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago

A company with 50% of revenue growth, 30% of automotive gross margin, almost unlimited demand (99% of global auto sales are still non-EV and Tesla's brand is just starting to become familiar), still zero ad spending, huge new markets like solar generation and stationary storage where they continue to have a massive lead in technology... Can you name one company in such a position? Tesla price-to-earning ration based on Q3 2021 income is 147, and dropping like a stone. Looks cheap to me.