3 ms·

A well-armed society is a polite society.

by BeFlatXIII 5y ago

ethanbond 5y ago
Despite literally all evidence to the contrary. Rate of gun ownership is directly correlated with violent crime rates.
- brightball 5y ago
  All evidence points to exactly the opposite of what you're stating. Ignore the title, unpack the data. https://mises.org/wire/guns-how-ny-times-manipulates-data https://mises.org/wire/guns-how-ny-times-manipulates-data Framed a different way, there are over 400 million guns in circulation in the US. At the moment, more than the total population of the US. Citation: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/07/13/three-million-more-guns-the-spring-2020-spike-in-firearm-sales/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/07/13/three-mil... If we look at 2020, the worst year for gun violence in decades in the US there were 20,000 gun homicides and 24,000 gun suicides. Citation: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/23/2020-shootings/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/23/2020-shooti... Taken together, that means that there were 44,000 gun abuses out of 400,000,000 in circulation which is annual abuse rate of 0.011%. Inversely, that means that the annual non-abuse rate, or the safe responsible use rate is 99.989%. If I remember correctly from my statistics 101 class, 99.99% is considered "statistically perfect".
  - ethanbond 5y ago
    Errr... my claim is not that most guns are involved in violent crime.
    - brightball 5y ago
      Do you have a citation on that? It's a pretty well known stat that violent crimes in the US have been steadily declining since 1990 all while gun ownership has been steadily increasing.
      - ethanbond 5y ago
        I’m having a hard time telling whether you’re arguing in good faith, so this will be my last comment on the matter. Obviously there are macro forces driving down violent crime rates across the developed world. You are once again arguing against a point no one has made. Comparing area-to-area, lots of guns to fewer guns, over the same time period, the correlations are clear both within the US and internationally. Within the US: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/ International comparison: https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(13)00444-0/pdf https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(13)00444-0/pdf > The number of guns per capita per country was a strong and independent predictor of firearm-related death in a given country, whereas the predictive power of the mental illness burden was of borderline significance in a multivariable model. Regardless of exact cause and effect, however, the current study debunks the widely quoted hypothesis that guns make a nation safer
        brightball 5y ago
        Look, I’m discussing in good faith. I’ll look at those links in detail but I’ll be shocked if they are any different than anything else I’ve read on the matter where word games tend to be played to frame the information to support a point of view. All I will say is on the last quote that you posted: guns per capita as a predictor of firearm related death in a country. Of course it is. Just as cars per capita are a predictor of automobile related deaths. The greater presence of anything the more often it will be involved than places where it’s not. This simply doesn’t prove anything at all.

A well-armed society is a polite society.

ethanbond 5y ago

Despite literally all evidence to the contrary. Rate of gun ownership is directly correlated with violent crime rates.

brightball 5y ago
All evidence points to exactly the opposite of what you're stating. Ignore the title, unpack the data. https://mises.org/wire/guns-how-ny-times-manipulates-data https://mises.org/wire/guns-how-ny-times-manipulates-data Framed a different way, there are over 400 million guns in circulation in the US. At the moment, more than the total population of the US. Citation: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/07/13/three-million-more-guns-the-spring-2020-spike-in-firearm-sales/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/07/13/three-mil... If we look at 2020, the worst year for gun violence in decades in the US there were 20,000 gun homicides and 24,000 gun suicides. Citation: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/23/2020-shootings/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/23/2020-shooti... Taken together, that means that there were 44,000 gun abuses out of 400,000,000 in circulation which is annual abuse rate of 0.011%. Inversely, that means that the annual non-abuse rate, or the safe responsible use rate is 99.989%. If I remember correctly from my statistics 101 class, 99.99% is considered "statistically perfect".
- ethanbond 5y ago
  Errr... my claim is not that most guns are involved in violent crime.
  - brightball 5y ago
    Do you have a citation on that? It's a pretty well known stat that violent crimes in the US have been steadily declining since 1990 all while gun ownership has been steadily increasing.
    - ethanbond 5y ago
      I’m having a hard time telling whether you’re arguing in good faith, so this will be my last comment on the matter. Obviously there are macro forces driving down violent crime rates across the developed world. You are once again arguing against a point no one has made. Comparing area-to-area, lots of guns to fewer guns, over the same time period, the correlations are clear both within the US and internationally. Within the US: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/ International comparison: https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(13)00444-0/pdf https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(13)00444-0/pdf > The number of guns per capita per country was a strong and independent predictor of firearm-related death in a given country, whereas the predictive power of the mental illness burden was of borderline significance in a multivariable model. Regardless of exact cause and effect, however, the current study debunks the widely quoted hypothesis that guns make a nation safer
      - brightball 5y ago
        Look, I’m discussing in good faith. I’ll look at those links in detail but I’ll be shocked if they are any different than anything else I’ve read on the matter where word games tend to be played to frame the information to support a point of view. All I will say is on the last quote that you posted: guns per capita as a predictor of firearm related death in a country. Of course it is. Just as cars per capita are a predictor of automobile related deaths. The greater presence of anything the more often it will be involved than places where it’s not. This simply doesn’t prove anything at all.