4 ms·

(let's just say that we both assume "you're clueless and have no idea how any of it works" and not repeat ourselves?) tether volume by definition will be clo

(let's just say that we both assume "you're clueless and have no idea how any of it works" and not repeat ourselves?) tether volume *by definition* will be close to BTC volume because BTC and most other altcoins are traded in stablecoins and tether is one of the largest of them. every time BTC changes hands into some other asset - there's a stablecoin on the other side of that transaction. of course trading volumes will be similar, that means literally nothing. what you're trying to claim is that somebody is actively printing tethers to prop up BTC price, but in that case number of available tethers must grow by amount that correlates with daily trading volume during green days. it doesn't. between july and now tether cap grew barely by 10% or $6bn while BTC market cap grew by hundreds of billions.

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
Just do a simple mental exercise and imagine if somebody would sell 1.88M BTC (10% of the current supply) in a span of 24 hours. Where would it take the price, and what would be the resulting market cap? According to your claims, it would reduce the market cap by 10%, right?
- keymone 5y ago
  gotta explain where you taking those numbers from. how did 1.88m BTC enter the picture? i was talking about $6b in tether. if sold on market instantly BTC price would probably not even drop below $50k judging from books i see on different exchanges. there's just no evidence to your claim that all the demand for BTC is created by tether. also, imo if tether was found not-solvent today, everybody sitting on tethers would run for their lives trying to buy BTC, sending the price to half a million easily.
  - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
    1.88 BTC is 10% of existing BTC. I'm trying to explain to you that market cap of an asset is not how much it is worth. It's just a function of a latest price multiplied by total supply. If you start offloading significant part of that assed, the price will tank very soon, taking your market cap with you. So any arguments pointing to gigantic market cap are just not valid. Now, with Tether. There are a total of ~70B of tethers. You claim that it grew by only 6B, but you kinda forget the previous 64B. Did they enter the market and are sold to people? Or maybe they are still controlled by bitfinex guys, who can use all these money to prop up prices on an exchange controlled by themselves, basically, putting money from one pocket to another, then transferring it back behind scenes? It is more then enough volume to move the price to 1M without putting in a single real USD more into the exchanges. Also, note that every previous run to ATH has coincided with extremely high blockchain activity, which was a result of a great public interest, with new money entering the market. But now, blockchain is very quiet, mempool falls to zero often. This makes me consider that this run is likely not real. Maybe it is exactly what you say, ATH is the result of tether holders running for their lives trying to buy BTC.
    - keymone 5y ago
      time will tell. this fairy tale of tether printing and propping up price is being told and re-told for 6 years and nothing ever happens. you can't hide a deception that large for this long.
    - thebean11 5y ago
      There is high blockchain activity if you consider ETH and ETH layer 2s. A lot of BTC activity happens on ETH as WBTC at this point anyway.
      - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
        So in january-may there was a lot of on-chain activity [1], just like in 2017, but by now it all somehow moved to ETH? Hmm. [1] https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight
        keymone 5y ago
        https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity
        Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
        I consider high on-chain activity to be an indicator of new people getting into bitcoin, bringing in new money, which drives the real valuation higher. In this regard, LN effect, as important as it might be, is not relevant: new money are not brought in via LN.
        thebean11 5y ago
        Nobody is claiming all on-chain activity has moved to ETH. BTC is not the only chain though..

(let's just say that we both assume "you're clueless and have no idea how any of it works" and not repeat ourselves?) tether volume *by definition* will be clo

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago

Just do a simple mental exercise and imagine if somebody would sell 1.88M BTC (10% of the current supply) in a span of 24 hours. Where would it take the price, and what would be the resulting market cap? According to your claims, it would reduce the market cap by 10%, right?

keymone 5y ago
gotta explain where you taking those numbers from. how did 1.88m BTC enter the picture? i was talking about $6b in tether. if sold on market instantly BTC price would probably not even drop below $50k judging from books i see on different exchanges. there's just no evidence to your claim that all the demand for BTC is created by tether. also, imo if tether was found not-solvent today, everybody sitting on tethers would run for their lives trying to buy BTC, sending the price to half a million easily.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  1.88 BTC is 10% of existing BTC. I'm trying to explain to you that market cap of an asset is not how much it is worth. It's just a function of a latest price multiplied by total supply. If you start offloading significant part of that assed, the price will tank very soon, taking your market cap with you. So any arguments pointing to gigantic market cap are just not valid. Now, with Tether. There are a total of ~70B of tethers. You claim that it grew by only 6B, but you kinda forget the previous 64B. Did they enter the market and are sold to people? Or maybe they are still controlled by bitfinex guys, who can use all these money to prop up prices on an exchange controlled by themselves, basically, putting money from one pocket to another, then transferring it back behind scenes? It is more then enough volume to move the price to 1M without putting in a single real USD more into the exchanges. Also, note that every previous run to ATH has coincided with extremely high blockchain activity, which was a result of a great public interest, with new money entering the market. But now, blockchain is very quiet, mempool falls to zero often. This makes me consider that this run is likely not real. Maybe it is exactly what you say, ATH is the result of tether holders running for their lives trying to buy BTC.
  - keymone 5y ago
    time will tell. this fairy tale of tether printing and propping up price is being told and re-told for 6 years and nothing ever happens. you can't hide a deception that large for this long.
  - thebean11 5y ago
    There is high blockchain activity if you consider ETH and ETH layer 2s. A lot of BTC activity happens on ETH as WBTC at this point anyway.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
      So in january-may there was a lot of on-chain activity [1], just like in 2017, but by now it all somehow moved to ETH? Hmm. [1] https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight
      - keymone 5y ago
        https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity
        Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
        I consider high on-chain activity to be an indicator of new people getting into bitcoin, bringing in new money, which drives the real valuation higher. In this regard, LN effect, as important as it might be, is not relevant: new money are not brought in via LN.
      - thebean11 5y ago
        Nobody is claiming all on-chain activity has moved to ETH. BTC is not the only chain though..