4 ms·

Assuming the 5 phases of a bubble would hold true, I wonder if the ability to scan the blockchain would allow you to analyze it and signal the profit-taking pha

Assuming the 5 phases of a bubble would hold true, I wonder if the ability to scan the blockchain would allow you to analyze it and signal the profit-taking phase. There already seems to be multiple panics regarding bitcoin. Are these manifested as waves? The 5 phases are 1. displacement 2. Boom 3. Euphoria 4. Profit-taking 5. Panic

alwillis 5y ago
This is not a bubble. Bitcoin has been the single best performing asset going back to 2010. And in many ways, bitcoin is just coming into its own. There’s a large number of hodlers who won’t sell no matter what happens and the on-chain analytics proves this. They know $65,000 USD is a fraction of what it’ll be worth 5 or 10 years from now.
twox2 5y ago
I think it's an ongoing cycle, but with Bitcoin as time has gone on, the panic phases have been shorter and shorter. I mean just 2 weeks BTC was ~1/2 of what it is today. I do wish it were more clear what drives the price though... I suspect that when the mega rich / institutions take large positions in BTC they don't do it on the open exchange... so is it really retail demand that can move the price like this in such a short period of time?
- greenail 5y ago
  but the question is: how easily can you detect profit taking? here's an interesting analysis: https://insights.glassnode.com/follow-the-smart-money/ https://insights.glassnode.com/follow-the-smart-money/
  - alwillis 5y ago
    Willy Woo is that dude when it comes to on-chain bitcoin analysis [1]. [1]: https://willywoo.substack.com/ https://willywoo.substack.com/ BTW, definition of “that dude” that’s serviceable for this context: that dude The person that everyone is trying to be like or looking up to. He influences the crowd and girls love him. http://that-dude.urbanup.com/1581909 http://that-dude.urbanup.com/1581909
- Kranar 5y ago
  Two weeks ago BTC was at 55k or 85% of today's price.
  - twox2 5y ago
    Yep looks like you're right... but 3 weeks ago it was 41k, and 3 months ago it was 32k... my main point stands though.

alwillis 5y ago

This is not a bubble. Bitcoin has been the single best performing asset going back to 2010. And in many ways, bitcoin is just coming into its own. There’s a large number of hodlers who won’t sell no matter what happens and the on-chain analytics proves this. They know $65,000 USD is a fraction of what it’ll be worth 5 or 10 years from now.

twox2 5y ago

I think it's an ongoing cycle, but with Bitcoin as time has gone on, the panic phases have been shorter and shorter. I mean just 2 weeks BTC was ~1/2 of what it is today. I do wish it were more clear what drives the price though... I suspect that when the mega rich / institutions take large positions in BTC they don't do it on the open exchange... so is it really retail demand that can move the price like this in such a short period of time?

greenail 5y ago
but the question is: how easily can you detect profit taking? here's an interesting analysis: https://insights.glassnode.com/follow-the-smart-money/ https://insights.glassnode.com/follow-the-smart-money/
- alwillis 5y ago
  Willy Woo is that dude when it comes to on-chain bitcoin analysis [1]. [1]: https://willywoo.substack.com/ https://willywoo.substack.com/ BTW, definition of “that dude” that’s serviceable for this context: that dude The person that everyone is trying to be like or looking up to. He influences the crowd and girls love him. http://that-dude.urbanup.com/1581909 http://that-dude.urbanup.com/1581909
Kranar 5y ago
Two weeks ago BTC was at 55k or 85% of today's price.
- twox2 5y ago
  Yep looks like you're right... but 3 weeks ago it was 41k, and 3 months ago it was 32k... my main point stands though.