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I was looking at it during the dip in July and thought it was too expensive. Of course it's up 100% since then. I also thought it was a bad time to buy when it

by jstx1 5y ago

I was looking at it during the dip in July and thought it was too expensive. Of course it's up 100% since then. I also thought it was a bad time to buy when it was $2k. I've pretty much always thought that it's a bad time to buy and I've always been wrong.

capableweb 5y ago
As the old saying goes: > It’s about time in the market – not timing the market Best day to buy Bitcoin was yesterday, the second best day to buy Bitcoin is today.
- jstx1 5y ago
  If you bought in July, you've doubled your money since then. If you bought in April, you only broke even in the past couple of days. It's very much about timing the market.
  - capableweb 5y ago
    Sure, if you're out after minor short-term gains, then timing the market is important. But most people don't have time for day-trading and jstx specifically mentioned the last time they were looking at the price was multiple months ago, so they are probably looking for long-term investments, not to be glued in front of a screen all day watching the price.
  - pskiba 5y ago
    Yes and no, unless you have a magic ball its best to DCA. Maybe at best, you could do a modified DCA so that you're not buying Bitcoin when its at all time highs.
  - missinfo 5y ago
    Time in the market beats timing the market.
  - ur-whale 5y ago
    > It's very much about timing the market. I disagree with you there: a) it's *always* about timing the market, whatever the investment may be: because in the end, you die. b) on a wide enough moving average window (i.e. if your investment horizon is long term enough), and if you only look at the technical analysis pov (like many are wont to do) and ignore the politics/value conversations, BTCUSD feels like quite a reasonable bet to take. c) had you DCA'd Bitcoin - say $50 / month - since - say - 2013, you'd be sitting *very* pretty right now.
ur-whale 5y ago
> I was looking at it during the dip in July and thought it was too expensive. You shouldn't feel bad about it: it just means you're sensible. I've seen and heard people following that exact line of thought at $2, $30, $300, etc... Predicting the future is by nature hard. Predicting the future of a highly volatile phenomenon is psychologically hard.
- xx511134bz 5y ago
  Not as hard as you think, https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376 https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/140657700623024537...
  - ur-whale 5y ago
    > Not as hard as you think Volatility on a log scale gets squashed a fair bit. Not that I disagree with PlanB's model, but that's not what most people look at, especially not daytraders: PlanB's model's investment horizon is way too long for them.
Geee 5y ago
The best strategy is to buy regularly with the same amount of dollars without thinking about the current price. Just think of it as your long-term savings account, and your expectation should be to beat inflation.
- keymone 5y ago
  it's called DCA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging
- esalman 5y ago
  This strategy works if you are financially disciplined, have emergency funds sorted etc. That's not how most people operate though.
- latchkey 5y ago
  https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/197437/dollar-cost-averaging-doesnt-work.aspx https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/197437/dollar-cost-averag... Kaplan: Long-term investing works when you keep your money in the market for long periods of time. When you're doing dollar cost averaging, you're not keeping your money in the market over the full period of time. You are keeping much of your money out of the market for much of the time. So, you're not getting the full benefit of long-term investing. Furthermore, when you're dollar cost averaging, you're basically placing a bet. You're placing a bet that the market will be going down shortly after you get the money and that eventually the market will come back up towards the end of the period as you're putting more money into the market.
  - Geee 5y ago
    DCA is a good strategy when the asset is very volatile, and you want to minimize the timing risk. If you're buying a low volatility index fund, then it doesn't make sense. This applies only when you have a large amount of money to begin with, because you basically have to DCA if you're investing from your monthly earnings. Lots of people have a fear of investing and don't enter the market at all. DCA is a fool-proof strategy which can minimize the fear and is easy to follow for beginners. In the case of Bitcoin, most people simply don't enter at all, because they're too afraid of the short-term movements in the price.
SilasX 5y ago
Imagine being the folks who started /r/Buttcoin, confident it would all come crashing down soon ... in 2011. >> created by [deleted] a community for 10 years [Mon Jul 18 06:43:43 2011 UTC] https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/
jareklupinski 5y ago
a college dormmate asked if I was using my video card to mine something he called "bitcoin", apparently I had some AMD Radeon model that was better than all the other cards at the time i laughed and went back to playing counterstrike i miss 2009
latchkey 5y ago
The advice below is amazingly bad. As humans we are terrible at predicting the future, so why bother trying? We are also taught from birth to fear / hate money. Therefore, we always fear doing the things that we should have done in the first place. Get over it. 1. Buy Bitcoin at any price, it doesn't matter. 2. Tokenize it into a form that allows you to... 3. Put it into DeFi and collect APY on it. By collecting interest, it disconnects you from the actual price of bitcoin. As long as you're getting that sweet compounding interest, that is all that matters because it gives you the freedom to choose what you want to do with it. You can "buy" more bitcoin (ie: don't sell your interest), or you can take that interest and use it to bet on other things. You're making your "money" work for you which is the best of all worlds. This is a similar play to covered calls, but far easier to reason about. What is different is that instead of handing your funds off to let some bro at a bank or on wallstreet make the majority of the money, you get to cut out that middle man and take control of YOUR money. If any of the above is confusing... do some research. Start with google: DeFi.

by jstx1 5y ago

capableweb 5y ago

As the old saying goes: > It’s about time in the market – not timing the market Best day to buy Bitcoin was yesterday, the second best day to buy Bitcoin is today.

jstx1 5y ago
If you bought in July, you've doubled your money since then. If you bought in April, you only broke even in the past couple of days. It's very much about timing the market.
- capableweb 5y ago
  Sure, if you're out after minor short-term gains, then timing the market is important. But most people don't have time for day-trading and jstx specifically mentioned the last time they were looking at the price was multiple months ago, so they are probably looking for long-term investments, not to be glued in front of a screen all day watching the price.
- pskiba 5y ago
  Yes and no, unless you have a magic ball its best to DCA. Maybe at best, you could do a modified DCA so that you're not buying Bitcoin when its at all time highs.
- missinfo 5y ago
  Time in the market beats timing the market.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > It's very much about timing the market. I disagree with you there: a) it's *always* about timing the market, whatever the investment may be: because in the end, you die. b) on a wide enough moving average window (i.e. if your investment horizon is long term enough), and if you only look at the technical analysis pov (like many are wont to do) and ignore the politics/value conversations, BTCUSD feels like quite a reasonable bet to take. c) had you DCA'd Bitcoin - say $50 / month - since - say - 2013, you'd be sitting *very* pretty right now.

ur-whale 5y ago

> I was looking at it during the dip in July and thought it was too expensive. You shouldn't feel bad about it: it just means you're sensible. I've seen and heard people following that exact line of thought at $2, $30, $300, etc... Predicting the future is by nature hard. Predicting the future of a highly volatile phenomenon is psychologically hard.

xx511134bz 5y ago
Not as hard as you think, https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406577006230245376 https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/140657700623024537...
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > Not as hard as you think Volatility on a log scale gets squashed a fair bit. Not that I disagree with PlanB's model, but that's not what most people look at, especially not daytraders: PlanB's model's investment horizon is way too long for them.

Geee 5y ago

The best strategy is to buy regularly with the same amount of dollars without thinking about the current price. Just think of it as your long-term savings account, and your expectation should be to beat inflation.

keymone 5y ago
it's called DCA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging
esalman 5y ago
This strategy works if you are financially disciplined, have emergency funds sorted etc. That's not how most people operate though.
latchkey 5y ago
https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/197437/dollar-cost-averaging-doesnt-work.aspx https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/197437/dollar-cost-averag... Kaplan: Long-term investing works when you keep your money in the market for long periods of time. When you're doing dollar cost averaging, you're not keeping your money in the market over the full period of time. You are keeping much of your money out of the market for much of the time. So, you're not getting the full benefit of long-term investing. Furthermore, when you're dollar cost averaging, you're basically placing a bet. You're placing a bet that the market will be going down shortly after you get the money and that eventually the market will come back up towards the end of the period as you're putting more money into the market.
- Geee 5y ago
  DCA is a good strategy when the asset is very volatile, and you want to minimize the timing risk. If you're buying a low volatility index fund, then it doesn't make sense. This applies only when you have a large amount of money to begin with, because you basically have to DCA if you're investing from your monthly earnings. Lots of people have a fear of investing and don't enter the market at all. DCA is a fool-proof strategy which can minimize the fear and is easy to follow for beginners. In the case of Bitcoin, most people simply don't enter at all, because they're too afraid of the short-term movements in the price.

SilasX 5y ago

Imagine being the folks who started /r/Buttcoin, confident it would all come crashing down soon ... in 2011. >> created by [deleted] a community for 10 years [Mon Jul 18 06:43:43 2011 UTC] https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/

jareklupinski 5y ago

a college dormmate asked if I was using my video card to mine something he called "bitcoin", apparently I had some AMD Radeon model that was better than all the other cards at the time i laughed and went back to playing counterstrike i miss 2009

latchkey 5y ago

The advice below is amazingly bad. As humans we are terrible at predicting the future, so why bother trying? We are also taught from birth to fear / hate money. Therefore, we always fear doing the things that we should have done in the first place. Get over it. 1. Buy Bitcoin at any price, it doesn't matter. 2. Tokenize it into a form that allows you to... 3. Put it into DeFi and collect APY on it. By collecting interest, it disconnects you from the actual price of bitcoin. As long as you're getting that sweet compounding interest, that is all that matters because it gives you the freedom to choose what you want to do with it. You can "buy" more bitcoin (ie: don't sell your interest), or you can take that interest and use it to bet on other things. You're making your "money" work for you which is the best of all worlds. This is a similar play to covered calls, but far easier to reason about. What is different is that instead of handing your funds off to let some bro at a bank or on wallstreet make the majority of the money, you get to cut out that middle man and take control of YOUR money. If any of the above is confusing... do some research. Start with google: DeFi.