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Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Above $65K on Strength of ETF Debut

54 points by 1cvmask 5y ago

jstx1 5y ago
People who are buying/holding now - what's the long term plan? Expect even more demand... until? Or is there not "until" and you expect it to go up indefinitely?
- xiphias2 5y ago
  This is very controversial, but as long as someone accepts that Bitcoin is better money than fiat currencies (which I believe) with a 2x/year adoption rate (right now it’s hundreds of millions of people), fiat currencies will hyperinflate in 2030. I already have non-Bitcoin friends using either stocks or houses as savings, and fiat holders will be the bag holders…people who get into debt will be the winners.
- capableweb 5y ago
  Been holding/using Bitcoin (when possible) since ~2013. I have it because I'd rather use it than anything else, and I imagine a future when it's a decent alternative to cash, but we're not there yet so I'm still waiting. I have no qualms with the price going up or down, as long as eventually I can use it for purchases and giving/receiving friends/family, which I can already do, but it's on a very small scale.
- Geee 5y ago
  In long term it should replace other forms of money and assets that are used for storing value. Demand stops growing when everyone uses it, and the value will stabilize.
- thebean11 5y ago
  I never expect to hold zero Bitcoin, but I do plan on selling some in 2022 just to rebalance into other investments / reduce risk exposure. I still see a lot of growth potential, and I believe the current market cap is overstated. Many many coins are permanently lost, my bet is that the true market cap is significantly under $1T.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > what's the long term plan? If BTC held at these levels for the next 20 years, I wouldn't mind. As long as it holds it own against inflation, it's a pretty nice store of wealth. If it goes another 10x, I won't mind either, obviously. But I really don't need it to: it's got other advantages.
- kinghajj 5y ago
  Keep holding until the sell orders I have trigger, then put the after tax proceeds into my brokerage. If it goes up more, sell repeat. Never plan to sell 100% of my holdings. Once my brokerage account and/or the portion of my stash on crypto interest platforms is enough to provide a generous regular income, FIRE.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rvz 5y ago
Time to hit the sell button?
- Geee 5y ago
  With Bitcoin, it's not a good idea to sell at all. Just wait how it plays out over the years and replaces the existing monetary system. It's much more fun playing the long game, than trying to time the ups and downs. However, if you want to try timing the market, then perhaps wait until December / early next year when hype is at maximum. The current hype cycle is just starting.
  - VHRanger 5y ago
    Yes, we're totally ready for the thing that taps out at 7 transactions per second to "replace the monetary system" And don't give me the L2 lightning network bullshit. Both you and I know that it doesn't work as an actually decentralized payments system, and it plausible deniability and makeup for a centralized workaround of BTC's fundamental flaws
    - keymone 5y ago
      > And don't give me the L2 lightning network bullshit. Both you and I know that it doesn't work as an actually decentralized payments system, and it plausible deniability and makeup for a centralized workaround of BTC's fundamental flaws seems like you've made up your mind so doesn't make sense to engage, but if anybody else comes across this comment - it's pretty much tribalistic bs. lightning network works, it's a system that preserves Bitcoin's security guarantees while decoupling value transfers from onchain settlements. this is how you scale global distributed systems - you localize them into lots of smaller systems that can change state independently in a consistent manner.
      - VHRanger 5y ago
        Lightning network style L2 models (where you preallocate channels) simply don't work as I see it. You either have to centralize the system, or you run into an unsolvable Canadian traveler problem making the thing fairly useless.
Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
65k tethers, wow. How much is that in USD?
- thebean11 5y ago
  Currently 65k
  - paulpauper 5y ago
    >66k
  - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
    It is already proven that USDT is not backed by the equal amount of USD on their accounts, contrary to what was claimed, so I very much doubt that the price propped up by huge volume of USDT really equals its price in USD. If you exit now, it probably does, but this music got to stop one day.
    - keymone 5y ago
      all tether in existence is only worth $57b. BTC market cap is $1.2t. "t" for trillion, you know.
      - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
        Oh, holy ignorance! You clearly have no idea how this works. To get a clue, check daily trading volumes and compare them to market caps.
        thebean11 5y ago
        Ad hominem is not necessary. Trading volume plays a role, but for everyone trading Tether -> BTC there is someone else trading BTC -> Tether on the other side. If the USDT/USD peg began to fail naturally, you'd need a massive amount of non Tether currency to prop it back up (ie buy Tether at peg).
seibelj 5y ago
There's a lot more adoption going on with big business. In addition to the most powerful people in government looking at crypto seriously, both Visa and Stripe are heavily investing in crypto teams and infrastructure. https://cointelegraph.com/news/stripe-builds-new-crypto-team-for-payments-three-years-after-dropping-bitcoin https://cointelegraph.com/news/stripe-builds-new-crypto-team... https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-working-on-blockchain-interoperability-hub-for-crypto-payments https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-working-on-blockchain-in... Not really sure how someone can claim crypto isn't a big thing now.
- chinathrow 5y ago
  It might be big in numbers but I will still not take part in a system which has so much waste and means to launder money built in.
  - capableweb 5y ago
    You seem confused, seibelj is talking about Bitcoin adoption, not cash.
  - celticninja 5y ago
    Do you sit out capitalism as a whole? Or looking at your username surely the CCP also fits that definition, are you chinese yet refuse to participate in the economy?
- gruez 5y ago
  >Not really sure how someone can claim crypto isn't a big thing now. I think skeptics have moved from "it's not going to be a thing (ie. get acceptance)" to "it's a scam/environmental disaster and government will/should crack down on it".
- paulpauper 5y ago
  people said this in early 2018 and late 2017 too. price proceeded to fall by 70%. I don't see evidence of adoption. Most merchants do not accept bitcoin , and if they do few customers use it
endisneigh 5y ago
The question remains - why sell or ever use it if it continues to go up? This will continue to perpetuate itself until the inevitable great stagnation and subsequent crash. We’re currently in the worlds biggest and longest asset inflation run. Let’s see how it does during a true Great Depression.
- capableweb 5y ago
  You seem to argue two things in the same comment, which conflict with each other. If there is a stagnation (the price stands still), then people would start using it (since your point is that people are not using it now because the price goes up), how would that lead to a crash in that case? Not that I agree with any of your points, your message seems confusing as it stands now.
  - endisneigh 5y ago
    If and when there’s stagnation there will be no reason to hold crypto over fiat, and hence people will cash out. If you knew the price would never increase or decrease you would cash out to move to more productive uses of your money.
    - capableweb 5y ago
      If fiat had the same properties as cryptocurrencies, I'd agree with you. But you have to at least agree (or understand rather) that they are in fact different, for good or bad. So maybe people other than you see value in those differences.
    - ur-whale 5y ago
      > If and when there’s stagnation there will be no reason to hold crypto over fiat I would disagree. Holding Bitcoin and not telling a soul will shield your wealth against quite a few "events" (divorce, bankruptcy, seizure, etc...) Doing the same with cash involves a shovel, a GPS and very long walks in the wilderness.
    - throw0101a 5y ago
alex205 5y ago
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jstx1 5y ago
I was looking at it during the dip in July and thought it was too expensive. Of course it's up 100% since then. I also thought it was a bad time to buy when it was $2k. I've pretty much always thought that it's a bad time to buy and I've always been wrong.
- capableweb 5y ago
  As the old saying goes: > It’s about time in the market – not timing the market Best day to buy Bitcoin was yesterday, the second best day to buy Bitcoin is today.
  - jstx1 5y ago
    If you bought in July, you've doubled your money since then. If you bought in April, you only broke even in the past couple of days. It's very much about timing the market.
    - capableweb 5y ago
      Sure, if you're out after minor short-term gains, then timing the market is important. But most people don't have time for day-trading and jstx specifically mentioned the last time they were looking at the price was multiple months ago, so they are probably looking for long-term investments, not to be glued in front of a screen all day watching the price.
    - pskiba 5y ago
      Yes and no, unless you have a magic ball its best to DCA. Maybe at best, you could do a modified DCA so that you're not buying Bitcoin when its at all time highs.
    - missinfo 5y ago
      Time in the market beats timing the market.
    - ur-whale 5y ago
      > It's very much about timing the market. I disagree with you there: a) it's *always* about timing the market, whatever the investment may be: because in the end, you die. b) on a wide enough moving average window (i.e. if your investment horizon is long term enough), and if you only look at the technical analysis pov (like many are wont to do) and ignore the politics/value conversations, BTCUSD feels like quite a reasonable bet to take. c) had you DCA'd Bitcoin - say $50 / month - since - say - 2013, you'd be sitting *very* pretty right now.
mrfusion 5y ago
How do you feel about the ETF? Is it basically as good as a fund that holds btc?
- xur17 5y ago
  It's a futures based ETF, which means you pay fairly heft fees when holding it (vs a spot ETF). If you have access to GBTC instead, it's trading at a discount, and intends to convert to a spot ETF, so it's likely the better option.
throwdecro 5y ago
Does that $65K represent a trade against USD or a trade against Tether?
- mankyd 5y ago
  USD - you can buy and/or sell on the major platforms for that price.
- capableweb 5y ago
  On Coinbase Pro (just one example) BTC-USD (real USD, not Tether or any other stablecoin) is currently trading at 66,659.99 USD.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > Does that $65K represent a trade against USD or a trade against Tether? A fair question to ask, but there are quite a few places where BTC can be traded against actual cold hard cash and not monopoly money (insofar as you consider USD not monopoly money, a shaky proposition in itself). So yes, USD, not Tether.
web2sucks 5y ago
I find it beyond fascinating that people on this forum who are deeply involved with Web 2.0, completely disregard Web 3.0 as a scam. Technology is growing exponentially during our lifetime, if you are not open to the idea of new technology you will be either late or completely left behind. Many people thought Web 2.0 was a scam and it would never amount to anything more than an online newspaper. Imagine putting your credit card on the internet, Heavens no! It’s easy to punch down that what we do not understand.
- Kiro 5y ago
  HN has a surprising amount of luddites. In this case though it's just a matter of people being mad they missed out. It's embarrassing for them since the world presumes all hackers cashed in on Bitcoin. So they feel like failures for not seeing it and rationalize by dismissing cryptocurrencies altogether.
bitcoinmonger2 5y ago
I had a large amount of savings in Bitcoin in September 2020. However, after reading the salient arguments against Bitcoin made by Stephen Diehl on his Twitter account, I liquidated my entire position. And I couldn't be happier. Thanks to his nuanced decomposition of the technology I have avoided the wild price swings over the last year, and protected myself against the inevitable crash. I would recommend anyone with a position in Bitcoin to read his informed analysis on the technology and cash out while you still have chance. The best time to get out of Bitcoin was a year ago. The second best time is today.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > arguments against Bitcoin made by Stephen Diehl on his Twitter account Stephen Diehl is the textbook example of a fanatic. Not just on the topic of cryptos. I would take whatever he says with a bucketload of salt.
- biceprouse 5y ago
  prob not smart idea to rely on investment advice solely from a single twitter user. Diehl often makes inaccurate claims about the technology he is criticising, and refuses to enter into any discussion that goes against his beliefs
- Kiro 5y ago
  Nice rationalization.
- josefresco 5y ago
  *BTC Value in USD Sept 1 2020: $11,414.03 I understand what you're saying and peace of mind is a big part of investing, but you clearly lost out on massive gains.
- game_the0ry 5y ago
  Could you link, please? i would like to see that.
  - bitcoinmonger2 5y ago

54 points by 1cvmask 5y ago

People who are buying/holding now - what's the long term plan? Expect even more demand... until? Or is there not "until" and you expect it to go up indefinitely?

xiphias2 5y ago
This is very controversial, but as long as someone accepts that Bitcoin is better money than fiat currencies (which I believe) with a 2x/year adoption rate (right now it’s hundreds of millions of people), fiat currencies will hyperinflate in 2030. I already have non-Bitcoin friends using either stocks or houses as savings, and fiat holders will be the bag holders…people who get into debt will be the winners.
capableweb 5y ago
Been holding/using Bitcoin (when possible) since ~2013. I have it because I'd rather use it than anything else, and I imagine a future when it's a decent alternative to cash, but we're not there yet so I'm still waiting. I have no qualms with the price going up or down, as long as eventually I can use it for purchases and giving/receiving friends/family, which I can already do, but it's on a very small scale.
Geee 5y ago
In long term it should replace other forms of money and assets that are used for storing value. Demand stops growing when everyone uses it, and the value will stabilize.
thebean11 5y ago
I never expect to hold zero Bitcoin, but I do plan on selling some in 2022 just to rebalance into other investments / reduce risk exposure. I still see a lot of growth potential, and I believe the current market cap is overstated. Many many coins are permanently lost, my bet is that the true market cap is significantly under $1T.
ur-whale 5y ago
> what's the long term plan? If BTC held at these levels for the next 20 years, I wouldn't mind. As long as it holds it own against inflation, it's a pretty nice store of wealth. If it goes another 10x, I won't mind either, obviously. But I really don't need it to: it's got other advantages.
kinghajj 5y ago
Keep holding until the sell orders I have trigger, then put the after tax proceeds into my brokerage. If it goes up more, sell repeat. Never plan to sell 100% of my holdings. Once my brokerage account and/or the portion of my stash on crypto interest platforms is enough to provide a generous regular income, FIRE.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

rvz 5y ago

Time to hit the sell button?

Geee 5y ago
With Bitcoin, it's not a good idea to sell at all. Just wait how it plays out over the years and replaces the existing monetary system. It's much more fun playing the long game, than trying to time the ups and downs. However, if you want to try timing the market, then perhaps wait until December / early next year when hype is at maximum. The current hype cycle is just starting.
- VHRanger 5y ago
  Yes, we're totally ready for the thing that taps out at 7 transactions per second to "replace the monetary system" And don't give me the L2 lightning network bullshit. Both you and I know that it doesn't work as an actually decentralized payments system, and it plausible deniability and makeup for a centralized workaround of BTC's fundamental flaws
  - keymone 5y ago
    > And don't give me the L2 lightning network bullshit. Both you and I know that it doesn't work as an actually decentralized payments system, and it plausible deniability and makeup for a centralized workaround of BTC's fundamental flaws seems like you've made up your mind so doesn't make sense to engage, but if anybody else comes across this comment - it's pretty much tribalistic bs. lightning network works, it's a system that preserves Bitcoin's security guarantees while decoupling value transfers from onchain settlements. this is how you scale global distributed systems - you localize them into lots of smaller systems that can change state independently in a consistent manner.
    - VHRanger 5y ago
      Lightning network style L2 models (where you preallocate channels) simply don't work as I see it. You either have to centralize the system, or you run into an unsolvable Canadian traveler problem making the thing fairly useless.

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago

65k tethers, wow. How much is that in USD?

thebean11 5y ago
Currently 65k
- paulpauper 5y ago
  >66k
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  It is already proven that USDT is not backed by the equal amount of USD on their accounts, contrary to what was claimed, so I very much doubt that the price propped up by huge volume of USDT really equals its price in USD. If you exit now, it probably does, but this music got to stop one day.
  - keymone 5y ago
    all tether in existence is only worth $57b. BTC market cap is $1.2t. "t" for trillion, you know.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
      Oh, holy ignorance! You clearly have no idea how this works. To get a clue, check daily trading volumes and compare them to market caps.
      - thebean11 5y ago
        Ad hominem is not necessary. Trading volume plays a role, but for everyone trading Tether -> BTC there is someone else trading BTC -> Tether on the other side. If the USDT/USD peg began to fail naturally, you'd need a massive amount of non Tether currency to prop it back up (ie buy Tether at peg).

seibelj 5y ago

There's a lot more adoption going on with big business. In addition to the most powerful people in government looking at crypto seriously, both Visa and Stripe are heavily investing in crypto teams and infrastructure. https://cointelegraph.com/news/stripe-builds-new-crypto-team-for-payments-three-years-after-dropping-bitcoin https://cointelegraph.com/news/stripe-builds-new-crypto-team... https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-working-on-blockchain-interoperability-hub-for-crypto-payments https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-working-on-blockchain-in... Not really sure how someone can claim crypto isn't a big thing now.

chinathrow 5y ago
It might be big in numbers but I will still not take part in a system which has so much waste and means to launder money built in.
- capableweb 5y ago
  You seem confused, seibelj is talking about Bitcoin adoption, not cash.
- celticninja 5y ago
  Do you sit out capitalism as a whole? Or looking at your username surely the CCP also fits that definition, are you chinese yet refuse to participate in the economy?
gruez 5y ago
>Not really sure how someone can claim crypto isn't a big thing now. I think skeptics have moved from "it's not going to be a thing (ie. get acceptance)" to "it's a scam/environmental disaster and government will/should crack down on it".
paulpauper 5y ago
people said this in early 2018 and late 2017 too. price proceeded to fall by 70%. I don't see evidence of adoption. Most merchants do not accept bitcoin , and if they do few customers use it

endisneigh 5y ago

The question remains - why sell or ever use it if it continues to go up? This will continue to perpetuate itself until the inevitable great stagnation and subsequent crash. We’re currently in the worlds biggest and longest asset inflation run. Let’s see how it does during a true Great Depression.

capableweb 5y ago
You seem to argue two things in the same comment, which conflict with each other. If there is a stagnation (the price stands still), then people would start using it (since your point is that people are not using it now because the price goes up), how would that lead to a crash in that case? Not that I agree with any of your points, your message seems confusing as it stands now.
- endisneigh 5y ago
  If and when there’s stagnation there will be no reason to hold crypto over fiat, and hence people will cash out. If you knew the price would never increase or decrease you would cash out to move to more productive uses of your money.
  - capableweb 5y ago
    If fiat had the same properties as cryptocurrencies, I'd agree with you. But you have to at least agree (or understand rather) that they are in fact different, for good or bad. So maybe people other than you see value in those differences.
  - ur-whale 5y ago
    > If and when there’s stagnation there will be no reason to hold crypto over fiat I would disagree. Holding Bitcoin and not telling a soul will shield your wealth against quite a few "events" (divorce, bankruptcy, seizure, etc...) Doing the same with cash involves a shovel, a GPS and very long walks in the wilderness.
  - throw0101a 5y ago

alex205 5y ago

Syllable Counter helps you to count syllables in a sentence. Our website uses different algorithms to count syllable in a word. You can input multiple lines at once, like poems or lyrics, haiku, sonnet, etc. This website shows results instantly, without any reloading that makes it easier to use. https://syllablecounter.co/ https://syllablecounter.co/

jstx1 5y ago

I was looking at it during the dip in July and thought it was too expensive. Of course it's up 100% since then. I also thought it was a bad time to buy when it was $2k. I've pretty much always thought that it's a bad time to buy and I've always been wrong.

capableweb 5y ago
As the old saying goes: > It’s about time in the market – not timing the market Best day to buy Bitcoin was yesterday, the second best day to buy Bitcoin is today.
- jstx1 5y ago
  If you bought in July, you've doubled your money since then. If you bought in April, you only broke even in the past couple of days. It's very much about timing the market.
  - capableweb 5y ago
    Sure, if you're out after minor short-term gains, then timing the market is important. But most people don't have time for day-trading and jstx specifically mentioned the last time they were looking at the price was multiple months ago, so they are probably looking for long-term investments, not to be glued in front of a screen all day watching the price.
  - pskiba 5y ago
    Yes and no, unless you have a magic ball its best to DCA. Maybe at best, you could do a modified DCA so that you're not buying Bitcoin when its at all time highs.
  - missinfo 5y ago
    Time in the market beats timing the market.
  - ur-whale 5y ago
    > It's very much about timing the market. I disagree with you there: a) it's *always* about timing the market, whatever the investment may be: because in the end, you die. b) on a wide enough moving average window (i.e. if your investment horizon is long term enough), and if you only look at the technical analysis pov (like many are wont to do) and ignore the politics/value conversations, BTCUSD feels like quite a reasonable bet to take. c) had you DCA'd Bitcoin - say $50 / month - since - say - 2013, you'd be sitting *very* pretty right now.

mrfusion 5y ago

How do you feel about the ETF? Is it basically as good as a fund that holds btc?

xur17 5y ago
It's a futures based ETF, which means you pay fairly heft fees when holding it (vs a spot ETF). If you have access to GBTC instead, it's trading at a discount, and intends to convert to a spot ETF, so it's likely the better option.

throwdecro 5y ago

Does that $65K represent a trade against USD or a trade against Tether?

mankyd 5y ago
USD - you can buy and/or sell on the major platforms for that price.
capableweb 5y ago
On Coinbase Pro (just one example) BTC-USD (real USD, not Tether or any other stablecoin) is currently trading at 66,659.99 USD.
ur-whale 5y ago
> Does that $65K represent a trade against USD or a trade against Tether? A fair question to ask, but there are quite a few places where BTC can be traded against actual cold hard cash and not monopoly money (insofar as you consider USD not monopoly money, a shaky proposition in itself). So yes, USD, not Tether.

web2sucks 5y ago

I find it beyond fascinating that people on this forum who are deeply involved with Web 2.0, completely disregard Web 3.0 as a scam. Technology is growing exponentially during our lifetime, if you are not open to the idea of new technology you will be either late or completely left behind. Many people thought Web 2.0 was a scam and it would never amount to anything more than an online newspaper. Imagine putting your credit card on the internet, Heavens no! It’s easy to punch down that what we do not understand.

Kiro 5y ago
HN has a surprising amount of luddites. In this case though it's just a matter of people being mad they missed out. It's embarrassing for them since the world presumes all hackers cashed in on Bitcoin. So they feel like failures for not seeing it and rationalize by dismissing cryptocurrencies altogether.

bitcoinmonger2 5y ago

I had a large amount of savings in Bitcoin in September 2020. However, after reading the salient arguments against Bitcoin made by Stephen Diehl on his Twitter account, I liquidated my entire position. And I couldn't be happier. Thanks to his nuanced decomposition of the technology I have avoided the wild price swings over the last year, and protected myself against the inevitable crash. I would recommend anyone with a position in Bitcoin to read his informed analysis on the technology and cash out while you still have chance. The best time to get out of Bitcoin was a year ago. The second best time is today.

ur-whale 5y ago
> arguments against Bitcoin made by Stephen Diehl on his Twitter account Stephen Diehl is the textbook example of a fanatic. Not just on the topic of cryptos. I would take whatever he says with a bucketload of salt.
biceprouse 5y ago
prob not smart idea to rely on investment advice solely from a single twitter user. Diehl often makes inaccurate claims about the technology he is criticising, and refuses to enter into any discussion that goes against his beliefs
Kiro 5y ago
Nice rationalization.
josefresco 5y ago
*BTC Value in USD Sept 1 2020: $11,414.03 I understand what you're saying and peace of mind is a big part of investing, but you clearly lost out on massive gains.
game_the0ry 5y ago
Could you link, please? i would like to see that.
- bitcoinmonger2 5y ago