4 ms·

Minority Report preCog like software "sending the police before there’s a crime"

64 points by rockarage 15y ago

pyre 15y ago
Deploying police to areas where crimes are statistically more likely to occur just seems like better allocation of resources, not necessarily 'pre-crime' or 'thought-crime.'
- mattmanser 15y ago
  Indeed, it actually sounds like what police work should be in the first place. Road gets burgled ever week at the same time. Perhaps we should stake it out? Revolutionary, the police discover common sense!
  - archangel_one 15y ago
    This kind of thing is often not as obvious as it sounds. I used to work for a company that did a similar trick for ambulances, and it was an amazing amount of work to try to persuade customers that this kind of statistical prediction could be useful. Also, there are often other considerations; depressingly often there's political pressure, for example. One could easily imagine in this case that there might be pressure to show a stronger police presence in low-risk wealthy suburbs over the hot spots that might tend to be poorer.
  - sbov 15y ago
    From reading the article it seems like it's potentially used to not do that: “But I’m looking at a map from last week and the whole assumption is that next week is like last week. The computer eliminates the bias that people have.”
    - lotu 15y ago
      I doubt it. It's probably that the software is looking at the map from last week, and the weeks before instead the person deciding that finding the map from last week is too much of a pain in the ass. Not to mention having to coordinate with the other officers so they don't all stake out the same parking lot. I'd bet the software is mostly doing things people would do them selves if they had the energy, patience, and organizational skills to do so.
  - jmtulloss 15y ago
    That oversimplifies it a bit I think. The road gets burgled at the same time every week, so the police then patrol that road and the road doesn't get burgled. Which road is getting burgled instead? That's where it's nice to have already run all the stats.
- nazgulnarsil 15y ago
  yeah, but it is also racist/s
pavel_lishin 15y ago
If this were a Michael Bay film, this is merely Step 1 in an evil mastermind's plans. Step 2 is to direct the police away from his crime scene; Step 3 is to commit the crime. Think Die Hard With A Vengeance meets Speed 2.
- frisco 15y ago
  You haven't seen Minority Report, have you? (nor looked it up, despite it clearly being referenced in the title of this post)
blake8086 15y ago
The interesting debate will occur when the police argue that statistics constitute "probable cause" for an otherwise unconstitutional search.
- tptacek 15y ago
  Let's save that interesting debate for when it actually occurs. In this case, any attentive cop would have detained anyone doing what these people were doing. I'm pretty sure Forest Park, IL isn't deployed advanced probabilistic policing technology, but I've gotten pulled over and questioned for pulling my car out of a CTA lot at a weird time of day (turns out there was a catalytic converter theft ring).
- dminor 15y ago
  Well, this program is essentially spitting out probabilities, so I guess it's a question of how predictive it actually is and how probable "probable cause" needs to be. Another question is: how will criminals respond if/when this becomes widespread?
  - eric-hu 15y ago
    With this program, I could see people using the predictions to tell them where not to commit a crime. Want to steal a car? Look for discrete areas that aren't flagged by this program. I'm sure this system is under heavy lockdown, though, and would require up-to-date police information.
tptacek 15y ago
Can someone fix the grotesquely editorialized title on this story? "PreCog"? The software picked a location to patrol. Locations don't have cognition. The real title of this story is "Sending the Police Before There’s a Crime".
- danilocampos 15y ago
  > The software picked a location to patrol. Locations don't have cognition. The software is being compared to Minority Report's precognitive mutants, who directed police forces to avert crimes before they happened.
  - tptacek 15y ago
    Based on what suspects were thinking; it's a dystopian fable. This is just good policework.
    - Homunculiheaded 15y ago
      To be fair it is not the case of the 'thought police' in Minority Report. Suspects aren't arrested based on what they are 'thinking', but rather the agreement of 3 supernatural precogs that can see events before they happen. You could replace the precogs with amazingly sophisticated AI, and the points in the film still hold. So while I agree that this is mostly good police work the case here is of using data analysis techniques to predict likely suspects. What actually makes this story most like 'minority report' is that the suspects where picked up for prior offenses, but investigated essentially because an algorithm said that people in that area at that time are more likely to commit a crime. I do think this is completely awesome, and a great idea, but I also think the title is not excessively overblown.
      - Freakoi 15y ago
        How do we stamp out ignorance? That's my question. I call pedantic troll. Don't feed them.
  - 15y ago
hexis 15y ago
This isn't "pre-cognition" any more than when Wal-Mart's supply-chain management software is.
- enjalot 15y ago
  Walmart's supply-chain management software sounds like pre-cognition to me, at least in the sense that they are making some pretty good decisions about the future based on predictions. It's just like artificial intelligence, once you get how it works it doesn't seem all that intelligent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect#AI_is_whatever_hasn.27t_been_done_yet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect#AI_is_whatever_hasn.2...
tsellon 15y ago
I found this interesting: "Mr. Friend said the early indications were encouraging. Burglaries were down 27 percent in July compared with July 2010, suggesting that the targeted policing may have a deterrent effect, he said." Rather than just catch criminals, it reduces the probability that a crime will be committed. The least expensive arrest is the one you don't have to make. Hope this pans out.
pmiller2 15y ago
People seem to be missing (or ignoring) the fact that this software doesn't direct police to arrest people before they've committed a crime. At worst, they end up questioning some people who wouldn't have otherwise been targeted, and those people might be arrested for some previous offense (such as a bench warrant). With that in mind, this is really nothing like Minority Report at all.

64 points by rockarage 15y ago

pyre 15y ago

Deploying police to areas where crimes are statistically more likely to occur just seems like better allocation of resources, not necessarily 'pre-crime' or 'thought-crime.'

mattmanser 15y ago
Indeed, it actually sounds like what police work should be in the first place. Road gets burgled ever week at the same time. Perhaps we should stake it out? Revolutionary, the police discover common sense!
- archangel_one 15y ago
  This kind of thing is often not as obvious as it sounds. I used to work for a company that did a similar trick for ambulances, and it was an amazing amount of work to try to persuade customers that this kind of statistical prediction could be useful. Also, there are often other considerations; depressingly often there's political pressure, for example. One could easily imagine in this case that there might be pressure to show a stronger police presence in low-risk wealthy suburbs over the hot spots that might tend to be poorer.
- sbov 15y ago
  From reading the article it seems like it's potentially used to not do that: “But I’m looking at a map from last week and the whole assumption is that next week is like last week. The computer eliminates the bias that people have.”
  - lotu 15y ago
    I doubt it. It's probably that the software is looking at the map from last week, and the weeks before instead the person deciding that finding the map from last week is too much of a pain in the ass. Not to mention having to coordinate with the other officers so they don't all stake out the same parking lot. I'd bet the software is mostly doing things people would do them selves if they had the energy, patience, and organizational skills to do so.
- jmtulloss 15y ago
  That oversimplifies it a bit I think. The road gets burgled at the same time every week, so the police then patrol that road and the road doesn't get burgled. Which road is getting burgled instead? That's where it's nice to have already run all the stats.
nazgulnarsil 15y ago
yeah, but it is also racist/s

pavel_lishin 15y ago

If this were a Michael Bay film, this is merely Step 1 in an evil mastermind's plans. Step 2 is to direct the police away from his crime scene; Step 3 is to commit the crime. Think Die Hard With A Vengeance meets Speed 2.

frisco 15y ago
You haven't seen Minority Report, have you? (nor looked it up, despite it clearly being referenced in the title of this post)

blake8086 15y ago

The interesting debate will occur when the police argue that statistics constitute "probable cause" for an otherwise unconstitutional search.

tptacek 15y ago
Let's save that interesting debate for when it actually occurs. In this case, any attentive cop would have detained anyone doing what these people were doing. I'm pretty sure Forest Park, IL isn't deployed advanced probabilistic policing technology, but I've gotten pulled over and questioned for pulling my car out of a CTA lot at a weird time of day (turns out there was a catalytic converter theft ring).
dminor 15y ago
Well, this program is essentially spitting out probabilities, so I guess it's a question of how predictive it actually is and how probable "probable cause" needs to be. Another question is: how will criminals respond if/when this becomes widespread?
- eric-hu 15y ago
  With this program, I could see people using the predictions to tell them where not to commit a crime. Want to steal a car? Look for discrete areas that aren't flagged by this program. I'm sure this system is under heavy lockdown, though, and would require up-to-date police information.

tptacek 15y ago

Can someone fix the grotesquely editorialized title on this story? "PreCog"? The software picked a location to patrol. Locations don't have cognition. The real title of this story is "Sending the Police Before There’s a Crime".

danilocampos 15y ago
> The software picked a location to patrol. Locations don't have cognition. The software is being compared to Minority Report's precognitive mutants, who directed police forces to avert crimes before they happened.
- tptacek 15y ago
  Based on what suspects were thinking; it's a dystopian fable. This is just good policework.
  - Homunculiheaded 15y ago
    To be fair it is not the case of the 'thought police' in Minority Report. Suspects aren't arrested based on what they are 'thinking', but rather the agreement of 3 supernatural precogs that can see events before they happen. You could replace the precogs with amazingly sophisticated AI, and the points in the film still hold. So while I agree that this is mostly good police work the case here is of using data analysis techniques to predict likely suspects. What actually makes this story most like 'minority report' is that the suspects where picked up for prior offenses, but investigated essentially because an algorithm said that people in that area at that time are more likely to commit a crime. I do think this is completely awesome, and a great idea, but I also think the title is not excessively overblown.
    - Freakoi 15y ago
      How do we stamp out ignorance? That's my question. I call pedantic troll. Don't feed them.
- 15y ago

hexis 15y ago

This isn't "pre-cognition" any more than when Wal-Mart's supply-chain management software is.

enjalot 15y ago
Walmart's supply-chain management software sounds like pre-cognition to me, at least in the sense that they are making some pretty good decisions about the future based on predictions. It's just like artificial intelligence, once you get how it works it doesn't seem all that intelligent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect#AI_is_whatever_hasn.27t_been_done_yet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect#AI_is_whatever_hasn.2...

tsellon 15y ago

I found this interesting: "Mr. Friend said the early indications were encouraging. Burglaries were down 27 percent in July compared with July 2010, suggesting that the targeted policing may have a deterrent effect, he said." Rather than just catch criminals, it reduces the probability that a crime will be committed. The least expensive arrest is the one you don't have to make. Hope this pans out.

pmiller2 15y ago

People seem to be missing (or ignoring) the fact that this software doesn't direct police to arrest people before they've committed a crime. At worst, they end up questioning some people who wouldn't have otherwise been targeted, and those people might be arrested for some previous offense (such as a bench warrant). With that in mind, this is really nothing like Minority Report at all.