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> In 1950 there were 2000 people on the assembly line. Today there are 200 I had a feeling this would get raised. The obvious retort is that the US has been cr

by runako 5y ago

> In 1950 there were 2000 people on the assembly line. Today there are 200 I had a feeling this would get raised. The obvious retort is that the US has been creating tons of manufacturing jobs, but that due to changes in our trade regime, those jobs are generally created overseas. One could very easily imagine modifications to our existing trade regime that create incentives to employ Americans in factories, if such an outcome was desired. Yes, factories are more automated, but factory workers globally are still a huge and growing segment of the workforce.

maltalex 5y ago
> factory workers globally are still a huge and growing segment of the workforce. Do you have a source to support this claim? It's obviously a huge workforce, but growing? Automation is happening all over the globe. I couldn't find exact numbers, but it feels like factory workers are going the way of the farmers.
- runako 5y ago
  Here's one source: https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/RP-19-04-Uri-AbdelAziz.pdf https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/RP-19-04-... Page 12 details change in manufacturing employment 2001-2014. The US dropped 4 million manufacturing jobs over that period, but Vietnam and Indonesia each added nearly that many. Total employment in the sector increased by 56 million. That's over 4 million new jobs, annually, over the period. Even the US has been adding manufacturing jobs the last 5-10 years. 2018 saw the addition of 300k manufacturing jobs in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP If there were some automation on the near horizon that could slow that job growth, there's a 5-year addressable market of $50B for the jobs added in 2018 alone. I am skeptical such automation is on the near horizon in any state where it is ready to be widely deployed. The dot-com crash overlapping with China entering the WTO slide in manufacturing employment was especially brutal. A third of US manufacturing jobs relocated in 10 years. ("Relocated" instead of "lost" because Americans are still buying those goods, and their production did not become completely automated in that timeframe.)

by runako 5y ago

maltalex 5y ago

> factory workers globally are still a huge and growing segment of the workforce. Do you have a source to support this claim? It's obviously a huge workforce, but growing? Automation is happening all over the globe. I couldn't find exact numbers, but it feels like factory workers are going the way of the farmers.

runako 5y ago
Here's one source: https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/RP-19-04-Uri-AbdelAziz.pdf https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/RP-19-04-... Page 12 details change in manufacturing employment 2001-2014. The US dropped 4 million manufacturing jobs over that period, but Vietnam and Indonesia each added nearly that many. Total employment in the sector increased by 56 million. That's over 4 million new jobs, annually, over the period. Even the US has been adding manufacturing jobs the last 5-10 years. 2018 saw the addition of 300k manufacturing jobs in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP If there were some automation on the near horizon that could slow that job growth, there's a 5-year addressable market of $50B for the jobs added in 2018 alone. I am skeptical such automation is on the near horizon in any state where it is ready to be widely deployed. The dot-com crash overlapping with China entering the WTO slide in manufacturing employment was especially brutal. A third of US manufacturing jobs relocated in 10 years. ("Relocated" instead of "lost" because Americans are still buying those goods, and their production did not become completely automated in that timeframe.)