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At this point, I think AMD and Intel are _at least_ 5 years away from being competitive if they shifted all R&D to ARM and started funneling insane amounts of m
by yurishimo 5y ago
At this point, I think AMD and Intel are _at least_ 5 years away from being competitive if they shifted all R&D to ARM and started funneling insane amounts of money into it. Without that shift in focus though, it could be a decade? More?
Apple has funneled all of their success from mobile straight to the desktop, and they are actively watching any competition for a sign of increased development. This is basically still the first generation of Apple Silicon arguably and it's absolutely bonkers. Let's say Intel tries to shift to ARM for some new product. Apple's first response is going to include releasing some crazy spec boost that makes Intel's attempt look like a joke, with the likely intention to discourage them from trying again.
I think it's more likely at this point, that we see Apple assume a sort of leader role similar to what Intel has been losing since the release of Ryzen. Apple will hold the lead so long that they get complacent until someone can slowly sneak in a new product that leap frogs their technology.
Intel held that top spot for how long though? Over a decade? Almost 2? I can easily see Apple taking a similar foothold if they can bring the price down over time similar to older iPhone models. Imagine buying a "new" $400 laptop in a few years with a M1 Pro/Max chip inside because they're just old tech at that point. Apple already does this sort of chip recycling with products like the Homepod and AppleTV. Both use the SoC from older iPhones that cost 5x as much when they launched.
The fight between Intel and AMD was already interesting enough, but adding in Apple is going to make the next decade a roller coaster! Best of all, it's a win/win for consumers as these companies try and out compete each other.
I'm excited for it!
- bkolobara 5y agoI don't think that the red and blue teams are that much behind. A high end AMD mobile processor like the Ryzen 7 5800HS easily beats the current M1 in most CPU bound multithreaded workloads, like compile times. Even if the numbers are true and the M1 MAX is 75% faster than the current M1 it will just be slightly faster than the AMD chip produced on an inferior process node. And the 5800HS you can get in laptops that cost like $800. The next generation of Intel CPUs Alder Lake, that also has a split between performance and efficiency cores, showed some promising numbers in current leaks and should be competitive with the M1 Max in CPU bound workloads. Where Apple shines are all this proprietary additions to the CPU that are massively going to benefit content creators (video & audio), but I as a developer don't think I can profit much from it and prefer to stick to open standards and technologies. I'm also super excited and can't wait to see what the next years bring us. As you said it, we are going to be the biggest winners here.