6 ms·

Covid increases unrelated to vaccination rates

31 points by doitLP 5y ago

dragonwriter 5y ago
One of many subsequent alternate-site (but identical substantive content; just different hosts for the same study) links that have been submitted for a story that was discussed at some length before being flagged off: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28903710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28903710
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  Was it flagged by mods or some user who prefers to censor instead of discuss ? This is pretty damning.
xojoc 5y ago
Previous discussions: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0s3tl https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0s3tl [2021-10-03] (53 comments) https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0lnl1 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0lnl1 [2021-10-03] (53 comments) All discussions: https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7 https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/link.springer.com/article/10.... Discussions with similar title: https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/Covid%20increases%20unrelated%20to%20vaccination%20rates https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/Covid%20increases%20unrelated... Archive: https://archive.md/newest/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7 https://archive.md/newest/https://link.springer.com/article/...
nickthemagicman 5y ago
This is fascinating. What else is interesting is that Florida who has had ZERO Covid restrictions this entire time, has the lowest levels of new cases per Capita in the lower 48.
- JohnHaugeland 5y ago
  That's, of course, entirely statistically nonsense. They have the third highest rate of Covid in the country. They're not getting infected because they're already infected.
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    'lowest levels of new cases' 'rate of Covid' They're the same thing...What numbers are you using? Or you just saying what kind of feels groovy in the moment brother ? Because I can dig it.
- jasonlaramburu 5y ago
  I never understand why people try to make this point. It’s pretty obvious covid comes in waves. Florida is now on the downswing of the delta wave. At its peak it had more than twice deaths per capita than California (arguably the most restrictive state).
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    No one really seemed to care about these fine points when they were comparing case rates between the southern states in the peak of their regular late-summer wave and the rest of the country and attributing the difference to vaccination rates.
    - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
      I don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. Florida had more than double the per capita deaths than California during the delta wave. It also has lower vaccination rates.
      - nickthemagicman 5y ago
        Florida has way more older people per Capita which are more vulnerable to Covid. So that accounts for the deaths. But why are new cases so low in a place with very few vaccinated and no Covid restrictions? You would think they would be sky high!
        dragonwriter 5y ago
        > > Florida had more than double the per capita deaths than California during the delta wave. > Florida has way more older people per Capita which are more vulnerable to Covid. > So that accounts for the deaths. No, it doesn't. Florida has less than a time and a half the 65+ population share that California has; while it might account for a higher death rate, it doesn't account for a more than double death rate, and it especially doesn’t explain an even greater discrepancy in the death:case rate than the death:population rate. > But why are new cases so low in a place with very few vaccinated and no Covid restrictions? Because COVID precautions (vaccination, voluntary testing without hospitalization, etc.) are mutually correlated, and so Florida has less likelihood of detecting cases that don't involve hospitalization; it also means cases that eventually require hospitalization are detected later with less early intervention. Which explains why Florida has, compared to other states, a low detected case rate, but a middle of the road hospitalization rate, and a very high death rate.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > What else is interesting is that Florida who has had ZERO Covid restrictions this entire time, has the lowest levels of new cases per Capita in the lower 48. Yes, but its just doing bad in identification of non-severe cases—and maybe severe cases, before its too late, too, given how much higher ranked it is in deaths compared to hospitalizations. It is more middling in recent per-capita COVID hospitalizations and near the top (#8 of all states and territories) in recent per capita COVID deaths. [0] Florida embodies Trump's observation that the COVID case rate was driven by testing, and cases would be much lower if testing was. [0] FL recent cases are 22/100K population (US overall is 25/100K), FL hospitalizations in the same time frame are 15/100K population (US overall is 18/100K), FL recent COVID death rate is 0.79/100K (US overall is 0.46/100K) from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    Florida has more old people than any other state 20% of the state pop, of course it's going to have more deaths with more of the age group that dies more of Covid. That doesn't explain why new cases are at rock bottom in a state with basically zero covid restrictions and basically no one has a vaccine... The natural immune system might not be an Alex Jones conspiracy theory after all !!! https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/ https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest...
yostrovs 5y ago
From the study: "For instance, in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]." Those are not the numbers I've been getting from the media. I'm quite shocked and surprised.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  Shocked that the media is inaccurate? You should see Sinclair broadcasting. One of the 4 or so corporations that own the media. https://youtu.be/hWLjYJ4BzvI https://youtu.be/hWLjYJ4BzvI
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  This article in Nature suggests the protection against infection falls to 13% after 3 months. And for AstraZeneca it wanes completely. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y
- joshuamorton 5y ago
  This has been the commonly reported number for quite some time. This paper is literally just repeating a number that's been widely reported for months. The way its been reported for some time is that vaccines provide moderate reduction in transmissibility, but significant reduction in hospitalization or death (severe infection). Also wow this is misleading: > Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifes 4 of them as “High” Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classifed as “High” transmission. Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classifed as “low” transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%. You can't compare things in this way. When you do it the "right way", you'll see a correlation, weak but extant (much as you see in their diagrams) which contradicts the central claim of the paper.
ipspam 5y ago
Headline at odds with data. Data suggests higher Vax rate = higher Covid. Study never had a chance to causate, so headline is propoganda. "In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated."
ericb 5y ago
Their seven day measurement time window choice is a bit suspect. I'd like to see a much longer time horizon. I'd also like to see it analyzed by population density. They chose a time window where the Northern well-vaccinated states are rising as everyone moves indoors and school starts [1]. The southern, less-vaccinated states generally were over the initial school class initial cross exposure spike. https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/living/school-start-dates-august-parents-feat/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/living/school-start-dates-aug...
version_five 5y ago
I don't see this study as by any means the last word on the effectiveness of the vaccines, and I see that people are pointing out flaws or concerns that probably need addressing. That is normal. What is not normal is that major and life altering policy decisions are being made because "the science is settled", mainstream news outlets are editorializing about the "unvaccinated" as an evil class to be looked down on and held responsible for all our problems, and personal privacy is being invaded under the guise of how important it is "I have a right to know if the person sitting next to me is vaccinated". It was clear from the beginning that the reaction was a religious one, so I dont expect to see anyone's mind changed, but its still not right to see the kinds of injustices that are being done in the name of something that has so much uncertainty around it. (Even if the effectiveness was more cut and dried to still don't believe it justifies the government mandating people prove they are vaccinated wherever they go, but we're not even at point to have that debate)
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

31 points by doitLP 5y ago

One of many subsequent alternate-site (but identical substantive content; just different hosts for the same study) links that have been submitted for a story that was discussed at some length before being flagged off: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28903710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28903710

nickthemagicman 5y ago
Was it flagged by mods or some user who prefers to censor instead of discuss ? This is pretty damning.

xojoc 5y ago

Previous discussions: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0s3tl https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0s3tl [2021-10-03] (53 comments) https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0lnl1 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/q0lnl1 [2021-10-03] (53 comments) All discussions: https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7 https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/link.springer.com/article/10.... Discussions with similar title: https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/Covid%20increases%20unrelated%20to%20vaccination%20rates https://discussions.xojoc.pw/q/Covid%20increases%20unrelated... Archive: https://archive.md/newest/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7 https://archive.md/newest/https://link.springer.com/article/...

nickthemagicman 5y ago

This is fascinating. What else is interesting is that Florida who has had ZERO Covid restrictions this entire time, has the lowest levels of new cases per Capita in the lower 48.

JohnHaugeland 5y ago
That's, of course, entirely statistically nonsense. They have the third highest rate of Covid in the country. They're not getting infected because they're already infected.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  'lowest levels of new cases' 'rate of Covid' They're the same thing...What numbers are you using? Or you just saying what kind of feels groovy in the moment brother ? Because I can dig it.
jasonlaramburu 5y ago
I never understand why people try to make this point. It’s pretty obvious covid comes in waves. Florida is now on the downswing of the delta wave. At its peak it had more than twice deaths per capita than California (arguably the most restrictive state).
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  No one really seemed to care about these fine points when they were comparing case rates between the southern states in the peak of their regular late-summer wave and the rest of the country and attributing the difference to vaccination rates.
  - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
    I don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. Florida had more than double the per capita deaths than California during the delta wave. It also has lower vaccination rates.
    - nickthemagicman 5y ago
      Florida has way more older people per Capita which are more vulnerable to Covid. So that accounts for the deaths. But why are new cases so low in a place with very few vaccinated and no Covid restrictions? You would think they would be sky high!
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > > Florida had more than double the per capita deaths than California during the delta wave. > Florida has way more older people per Capita which are more vulnerable to Covid. > So that accounts for the deaths. No, it doesn't. Florida has less than a time and a half the 65+ population share that California has; while it might account for a higher death rate, it doesn't account for a more than double death rate, and it especially doesn’t explain an even greater discrepancy in the death:case rate than the death:population rate. > But why are new cases so low in a place with very few vaccinated and no Covid restrictions? Because COVID precautions (vaccination, voluntary testing without hospitalization, etc.) are mutually correlated, and so Florida has less likelihood of detecting cases that don't involve hospitalization; it also means cases that eventually require hospitalization are detected later with less early intervention. Which explains why Florida has, compared to other states, a low detected case rate, but a middle of the road hospitalization rate, and a very high death rate.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> What else is interesting is that Florida who has had ZERO Covid restrictions this entire time, has the lowest levels of new cases per Capita in the lower 48. Yes, but its just doing bad in identification of non-severe cases—and maybe severe cases, before its too late, too, given how much higher ranked it is in deaths compared to hospitalizations. It is more middling in recent per-capita COVID hospitalizations and near the top (#8 of all states and territories) in recent per capita COVID deaths. [0] Florida embodies Trump's observation that the COVID case rate was driven by testing, and cases would be much lower if testing was. [0] FL recent cases are 22/100K population (US overall is 25/100K), FL hospitalizations in the same time frame are 15/100K population (US overall is 18/100K), FL recent COVID death rate is 0.79/100K (US overall is 0.46/100K) from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  Florida has more old people than any other state 20% of the state pop, of course it's going to have more deaths with more of the age group that dies more of Covid. That doesn't explain why new cases are at rock bottom in a state with basically zero covid restrictions and basically no one has a vaccine... The natural immune system might not be an Alex Jones conspiracy theory after all !!! https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/ https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest...

yostrovs 5y ago

From the study: "For instance, in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]." Those are not the numbers I've been getting from the media. I'm quite shocked and surprised.

nickthemagicman 5y ago
Shocked that the media is inaccurate? You should see Sinclair broadcasting. One of the 4 or so corporations that own the media. https://youtu.be/hWLjYJ4BzvI https://youtu.be/hWLjYJ4BzvI
AndrewBissell 5y ago
This article in Nature suggests the protection against infection falls to 13% after 3 months. And for AstraZeneca it wanes completely. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y
joshuamorton 5y ago
This has been the commonly reported number for quite some time. This paper is literally just repeating a number that's been widely reported for months. The way its been reported for some time is that vaccines provide moderate reduction in transmissibility, but significant reduction in hospitalization or death (severe infection). Also wow this is misleading: > Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifes 4 of them as “High” Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classifed as “High” transmission. Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classifed as “low” transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%. You can't compare things in this way. When you do it the "right way", you'll see a correlation, weak but extant (much as you see in their diagrams) which contradicts the central claim of the paper.

ipspam 5y ago

Headline at odds with data. Data suggests higher Vax rate = higher Covid. Study never had a chance to causate, so headline is propoganda. "In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated."

ericb 5y ago

Their seven day measurement time window choice is a bit suspect. I'd like to see a much longer time horizon. I'd also like to see it analyzed by population density. They chose a time window where the Northern well-vaccinated states are rising as everyone moves indoors and school starts [1]. The southern, less-vaccinated states generally were over the initial school class initial cross exposure spike. https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/living/school-start-dates-august-parents-feat/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/living/school-start-dates-aug...

version_five 5y ago

I don't see this study as by any means the last word on the effectiveness of the vaccines, and I see that people are pointing out flaws or concerns that probably need addressing. That is normal. What is not normal is that major and life altering policy decisions are being made because "the science is settled", mainstream news outlets are editorializing about the "unvaccinated" as an evil class to be looked down on and held responsible for all our problems, and personal privacy is being invaded under the guise of how important it is "I have a right to know if the person sitting next to me is vaccinated". It was clear from the beginning that the reaction was a religious one, so I dont expect to see anyone's mind changed, but its still not right to see the kinds of injustices that are being done in the name of something that has so much uncertainty around it. (Even if the effectiveness was more cut and dried to still don't believe it justifies the government mandating people prove they are vaccinated wherever they go, but we're not even at point to have that debate)

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]