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Anyone can comment on what Intel and AMD are going to do now? Will they be able to catch up or will Qualcomm become the alternative for ARM laptop chips? (and

by pier25 5y ago

Anyone can comment on what Intel and AMD are going to do now? Will they be able to catch up or will Qualcomm become the alternative for ARM laptop chips? (and maybe desktop chips too)

neogodless 5y ago
This exact question was asked a year ago when the M1 was announced. In the year since, their laptop market share increased about 2% from 14 to 16%[0]. The reasons for this are: 1. When deciding on a computer, you often have to decide based on use case, software/games used, and what operating system will work best for those use cases. For Windows users, it doesn't matter if you can get similar performance from a Macbook Pro, because you're already shopping Windows PCs. 2. Performance for most use cases has been enough for practically a decade (depending on the use case.) For some things, no amount of performance is "enough" but your workload may still be very OS-dependent. So you probably start with OS X or Windows in mind before you begin. 3. The efficiency that M1/Pro/Max are especially good at are not the only consideration for purchase decisions for hardware. And they are only available in a Macbook / Macbook Pro / Mini. If you want anything else - desktop, dedicated gaming laptop, or any other configuration that isn't covered here, you're still looking at a PC instead of a Mac. If you want to run Linux, you're probably still better off with a PC. If you want OS X, then there is only M1, and Intel/AMD are wholly irrelevant. 4. Many buyers simply do not want to be a part of Apple's closed system. So for Intel/AMD to suddenly be "behind" still means that years will have to go by while consumers (and especially corporate buyers) shift their purchase decisions and Apple market share grows beyond the 16% they're at now. But performance is not the only thing to consider, and Intel/AMD are not sitting still either. They release improved silicon over time. If you'd asked me a year ago, I'd say "do not buy anything Intel" but their 2021 releases are perfectly fine, even if not class-leading. AMD's product line has improved drastically over the past 4 years, and are easy to recommend for many use cases. Their Zen 4 announcement may also be on the 5nm TSMC node, and could be within the ballpark of M1 Pro/Max for performance/efficiency, but available to the larger PC marketplace. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/576473/united-states-quarterly-pc-shipment-share-apple/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/576473/united-states-qua...
- klelatti 5y ago
  These are unit market share numbers, so will include large numbers of PCs - both consumer and corporate - at price points where Apple isn't interested in competing because the margins are probably too low. I suspect by value their share is far higher and their % of profits is even bigger. The strategy is very clear and it's the same as the iPhone. Dominate the high end and capture all the profits. Of course gaming is an exception to this. The bad news for Intel is that they make their margins on high end CPUs too. For Intel and AMD there are two different questions: will Intel fix their process technology, and will AMD get access to TSMC's leading nodes in the volumes needed to make a difference to their market share?
  - manquer 5y ago
    Laptops are only small component of biz for CPU chip manufacturers like AMD/Intel. AMD is traditionally weak in laptops and has not decent market share ever. This doesn't impact their business that much (Intel's numbers are not down that much after loosing Apple's deal after all) AMD and especially Intel have high margin server CPU business, Apple's entire value prop is low power segment, their chips are not designed to compete in high power category and they will never sell outside their products offerings as only chips . AMD also does custom chip stuff like with PlayStation 5 etc, none of that is threatened by Apple. Servers Chips with ECC support, enterprise features and other typically high end chips have very high profit /unit lot more than even Apple can make per chip( maybe higher % for Apple, but not absolute $ / chip). Apple is a minor player in the general CPU business. There will be of course pressure from OEMs who stand to loose sales to Apple to step up their game, AMD/Intel are not loosing sleep over this in terms of revenue/margin yet.
    - klelatti 5y ago
      Sure Intel have a server business but that’s smaller than client computing and revenues there are falling. I don’t know what the precise % is but if Apple have 8% market share by volume their % of Intel’s client business by value is much higher. Losing a growing customer that represents that much of your business is not a trivial loss. Of course this is all part of a bigger picture where falling behind TSMC enables a range of competitors both on servers and clients. If they don’t fix their process issues - and they may well under PG - then this will only get worse.
ksec 5y ago
>Anyone can comment on what Intel and AMD are going to do now? In the short term, nothing. But it isn't like Apple will magically make all PC user switch to Mac. Right now Intel will need to catch up with Foundry first. AMD needs to work their way into partnering with many people with GPU IP which is their unique advantage. Both are currently well under way and are sensible path forward. Both CEOs knows what they are doing. I rarely praise any CEOs, but Pat and Dr Lisa are good.
terafo 5y ago
Intel is releasing heterogeneous chips in less than a month. Both Intel and AMD bet heavily on 3d stacking and it should hold Apple off desktop. A lot of Apple advantage is due to node advantage and I expect that AMD will start getting latest nodes much sooner than now, 5nm ryzen should be able to compete with m2, Intel's own nodes should get better in few years relatively to latest TSMC nodes(they are not that much behind). But x86 will surely loose market share in the coming decade.

by pier25 5y ago

Anyone can comment on what Intel and AMD are going to do now? Will they be able to catch up or will Qualcomm become the alternative for ARM laptop chips? (and maybe desktop chips too)

neogodless 5y ago

This exact question was asked a year ago when the M1 was announced. In the year since, their laptop market share increased about 2% from 14 to 16%[0]. The reasons for this are: 1. When deciding on a computer, you often have to decide based on use case, software/games used, and what operating system will work best for those use cases. For Windows users, it doesn't matter if you can get similar performance from a Macbook Pro, because you're already shopping Windows PCs. 2. Performance for most use cases has been enough for practically a decade (depending on the use case.) For some things, no amount of performance is "enough" but your workload may still be very OS-dependent. So you probably start with OS X or Windows in mind before you begin. 3. The efficiency that M1/Pro/Max are especially good at are not the only consideration for purchase decisions for hardware. And they are only available in a Macbook / Macbook Pro / Mini. If you want anything else - desktop, dedicated gaming laptop, or any other configuration that isn't covered here, you're still looking at a PC instead of a Mac. If you want to run Linux, you're probably still better off with a PC. If you want OS X, then there is only M1, and Intel/AMD are wholly irrelevant. 4. Many buyers simply do not want to be a part of Apple's closed system. So for Intel/AMD to suddenly be "behind" still means that years will have to go by while consumers (and especially corporate buyers) shift their purchase decisions and Apple market share grows beyond the 16% they're at now. But performance is not the only thing to consider, and Intel/AMD are not sitting still either. They release improved silicon over time. If you'd asked me a year ago, I'd say "do not buy anything Intel" but their 2021 releases are perfectly fine, even if not class-leading. AMD's product line has improved drastically over the past 4 years, and are easy to recommend for many use cases. Their Zen 4 announcement may also be on the 5nm TSMC node, and could be within the ballpark of M1 Pro/Max for performance/efficiency, but available to the larger PC marketplace. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/576473/united-states-quarterly-pc-shipment-share-apple/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/576473/united-states-qua...

klelatti 5y ago
These are unit market share numbers, so will include large numbers of PCs - both consumer and corporate - at price points where Apple isn't interested in competing because the margins are probably too low. I suspect by value their share is far higher and their % of profits is even bigger. The strategy is very clear and it's the same as the iPhone. Dominate the high end and capture all the profits. Of course gaming is an exception to this. The bad news for Intel is that they make their margins on high end CPUs too. For Intel and AMD there are two different questions: will Intel fix their process technology, and will AMD get access to TSMC's leading nodes in the volumes needed to make a difference to their market share?
- manquer 5y ago
  Laptops are only small component of biz for CPU chip manufacturers like AMD/Intel. AMD is traditionally weak in laptops and has not decent market share ever. This doesn't impact their business that much (Intel's numbers are not down that much after loosing Apple's deal after all) AMD and especially Intel have high margin server CPU business, Apple's entire value prop is low power segment, their chips are not designed to compete in high power category and they will never sell outside their products offerings as only chips . AMD also does custom chip stuff like with PlayStation 5 etc, none of that is threatened by Apple. Servers Chips with ECC support, enterprise features and other typically high end chips have very high profit /unit lot more than even Apple can make per chip( maybe higher % for Apple, but not absolute $ / chip). Apple is a minor player in the general CPU business. There will be of course pressure from OEMs who stand to loose sales to Apple to step up their game, AMD/Intel are not loosing sleep over this in terms of revenue/margin yet.
  - klelatti 5y ago
    Sure Intel have a server business but that’s smaller than client computing and revenues there are falling. I don’t know what the precise % is but if Apple have 8% market share by volume their % of Intel’s client business by value is much higher. Losing a growing customer that represents that much of your business is not a trivial loss. Of course this is all part of a bigger picture where falling behind TSMC enables a range of competitors both on servers and clients. If they don’t fix their process issues - and they may well under PG - then this will only get worse.

ksec 5y ago

>Anyone can comment on what Intel and AMD are going to do now? In the short term, nothing. But it isn't like Apple will magically make all PC user switch to Mac. Right now Intel will need to catch up with Foundry first. AMD needs to work their way into partnering with many people with GPU IP which is their unique advantage. Both are currently well under way and are sensible path forward. Both CEOs knows what they are doing. I rarely praise any CEOs, but Pat and Dr Lisa are good.

terafo 5y ago

Intel is releasing heterogeneous chips in less than a month. Both Intel and AMD bet heavily on 3d stacking and it should hold Apple off desktop. A lot of Apple advantage is due to node advantage and I expect that AMD will start getting latest nodes much sooner than now, 5nm ryzen should be able to compete with m2, Intel's own nodes should get better in few years relatively to latest TSMC nodes(they are not that much behind). But x86 will surely loose market share in the coming decade.