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Not really - the authorities are driving vaccination in order to reduce propagation, indicating that the vaxx is supposed to materially reduce R0. The authors

Not really - the authorities are driving vaccination in order to reduce propagation, indicating that the vaxx is supposed to materially reduce R0. The authors are not making any claims about anything, other than demonstrating the rate of vaccination doesn't seem to affect the case rate. The most obvious thing I see is that places with lower case rates and remote not dense populations tend to be less vaccinated in the first place. I have family in rural areas with almost zero case rates and as a result they're just less concerned and less vaxxed. This is an important consideration for policy because it's generally not been about making sure workers have protected themselves (although that's one issue) it's really about preventing outbreaks. Looking forward to further commentary.

cudgy 5y ago
“The authors are not making any claims about anything, other than demonstrating the rate of vaccination doesn't seem to affect the case rate.” Seems like the reader can at least reasonably deduce that the vaccine does not significantly impact the transmission rate. Mainstream thought and dogma about the vaccine certainly takes a hit based on the observations made in this article. I already see comments dismissing the findings based on personal theories about lockdown impacts and other WAGS.
- jollybean 5y ago
  Yes, they are providing evidence that maybe the vaxx doens't reduce rates - but they are not saying anything about government claims or expectations up until now. And yes, this data would be damaging to mainstream dogma but it's only one article. My bet is the scientific reality is somewhere in the middle: vaccines prevent transmission, but not by that much. Public Health Policy is always going to err on the side of 'more vaxxes'. If the data really starts to show vaxxes not as useful as we might want for R0 (because one study is just one study), they will change their tune and back off. There are a lot of reasons this data could be odd, including the fact that spread is happening among children right now, so it could be related to school outbreaks, and, areas where there wasn't a lot of COVID previously. In the end, their messaging will primarily be driven by net cases and uptick: if we're seeing breakouts and growth of COVID in certain areas, then you'll hear about vaccines, if case rates stay very low, we'll get back to normal.

cudgy 5y ago

“The authors are not making any claims about anything, other than demonstrating the rate of vaccination doesn't seem to affect the case rate.” Seems like the reader can at least reasonably deduce that the vaccine does not significantly impact the transmission rate. Mainstream thought and dogma about the vaccine certainly takes a hit based on the observations made in this article. I already see comments dismissing the findings based on personal theories about lockdown impacts and other WAGS.

jollybean 5y ago
Yes, they are providing evidence that maybe the vaxx doens't reduce rates - but they are not saying anything about government claims or expectations up until now. And yes, this data would be damaging to mainstream dogma but it's only one article. My bet is the scientific reality is somewhere in the middle: vaccines prevent transmission, but not by that much. Public Health Policy is always going to err on the side of 'more vaxxes'. If the data really starts to show vaxxes not as useful as we might want for R0 (because one study is just one study), they will change their tune and back off. There are a lot of reasons this data could be odd, including the fact that spread is happening among children right now, so it could be related to school outbreaks, and, areas where there wasn't a lot of COVID previously. In the end, their messaging will primarily be driven by net cases and uptick: if we're seeing breakouts and growth of COVID in certain areas, then you'll hear about vaccines, if case rates stay very low, we'll get back to normal.