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It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond specu

by cm2012 5y ago

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

xenihn 5y ago
The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.
- trophycase 5y ago
  It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it becomes glaringly obvious. Using defi is how I would imagine typing in a chatroom or accessing a website felt back when the web was just in its infancy.
  - sizzle 5y ago
    I love defi simply for the fact that I hold the keys to my money, not banks or a central entity.
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    You are 100% right, and also downvoted. Welcome to HackerNews, a place that should think startup-like progressive, but really is technology conservative.
  - atatatat 5y ago
    Ethereum? Or Ethereum2?
  - weatherlight 5y ago
    the problem with crypto is that people see it and treat it as an investment and a commodity, not an actual currency. People horde crypto and don't spend it.
wesleywt 5y ago
What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Mostly based on speculation.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nuerow 5y ago
  > What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Why does that surprise you? As the article from this discussion shows, there is strong evidence supporting the idea that crypto in general "it's just a big scheme".
  - ur-whale 5y ago
    > "it's just a big scheme". Who's doing the scheming, I wonder?
    - nuerow 5y ago
      > Who's doing the scheming, I wonder? As with all pump-and-dump schemes, obviously those who pump it. Let's put it differently: what concrete, real-world, tangible value is there driving crypto speculation? Is there any at all? It boggles the mind how crypto proponents try to frame crypto in general and their own investments in particular as something that has this sky-high intrinsic value based only on potential popularity and a belief that they can pump them up indefinitely.
      - ur-whale 5y ago
        > what concrete, real-world, tangible value is there driving crypto speculation? For a possible answer, please read my other post in this thread.
        nuerow 5y ago
        > For a possible answer, please read my other post in this thread. You've posted an awful lot of messages, but the only one remotely related to crypto's intrinsic value was the following post which makes no relevant point at all. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28902307 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28902307 In it, your main thesis is that you allege that crypto offers a way to "completely shield value", which is outright and patently false. Even so, trying to portray crypto in general and BTC in particular as serving as a store of value is an absurd notion from the start, as it's renowned for being highly volatile and so prone to crashes that halve it's value that crypto's hardline proponents already invented the concept of periodic corrections.
OnlineGladiator 5y ago
> It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart... Nobody is universally brilliant. Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics. Maybe NFTs are just the modern alchemy, as they do seem to turn random items into digital gold.
- garbagetime 5y ago
  >Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics I don't think that was an act of unbrilliance. It just didn't happen to work out.
  - louloulou 5y ago
    I mean splitting and fusing atomic nuclei is something that happens all the time. Hard to claim he was wrong, just a few orders of magnitude off on the energy required to do it.
  - eternalban 5y ago
    > It just didn't happen to work out. Nobody is privy to the full content of Newton's mind and his mental processes. One could also argue that his metaphysical preoccupations positively influenced his scientific accomplishments. Heck, at a meta level, is not Newtonian Physics intellectual 'Gold' end result of processing the 'Lead' in his head? That's alchemy.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  He also tried his hand at investing, without much success: https://www.businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-lost-a-fortune-on-englands-hottest-stock-2016-1?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-lost-a-fortune-...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- Ekaros 5y ago
  Was it really alchemy or proto-chemistry? After all Newton lived in time when chemistry was only starting to be defined. And it took quite a while to come up with proper ideas.
ur-whale 5y ago
>It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. How is this relevant to a Bitcoin conversation?
ekianjo 5y ago
> It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop. Many things have actually no intrinsic value (like art) yet don't lose value over time that much.
- DantesKite 5y ago
  Art has value as a money laundering scheme and so do NFT’s. Although I’m hopeful maybe someone will find a decent use case for them.
  - ur-whale 5y ago
    > Art has value as a money laundering scheme That's IMO a very reductive view. While - true - art is used to launder money, that's not the only thing that lends it value. If that wasn't the case, there wouldn't be any brick and mortar museums left in the world and you could buy the original Mona Lisa for a dime - since everyone else would have a 16k x 16k reproduction of it, essentially identical to the original. Somehow, that does not happen.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  Depends on what art we are talking about. Plenty of it has lost value over time. Ofc, what is popular and big name keeps being popular. But outside that group there is lot of examples that aren't as valuable as it was at one point.
wickoff 5y ago
I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT. One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.
- stickyricky 5y ago
  How? You can't see if I own any NFTs right now. You can't see it in gmail. You can't see it on facebook. You don't get ads saying "rich NFT holders in your area!". No one knows or cares if you own an NFT.
  - altrum 5y ago
    That’s only because the infrastructure for it isn’t there yet. Doesn’t mean it won’t eventually happen
  - wickoff 5y ago
    Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures. Then what if someone mints new NFTs based on (say) the same images used for the cryptopunks cartoons? You could get your extremely online bragging rights for an affordable price.
      - altrum 5y ago
        Except you can't, practically speaking--as the price is baked into the "brand".
        graeme 5y ago
        But you’d get twitter verification. Or will twitter only recognize one chain for NFTs? How do you handle someone minting multiple nfts of the same image on different chains?
riffraff 5y ago
Oh but NFTs have a very clear value proposition: money laundering. They literally have no value other than what is attributed to them, so if you want to clean up some money you just have to buy an NFT with legit money for X, then sell it to yourself using less-than-legit money. Now you own all legit money, and have only spent some minor transaction fees.
- sizzle 5y ago
  Wow that means OpenSea is like the Silk Road of money laundering.
- graeme 5y ago
  Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious. But thank you, that’s the most concise explanation I’ve seen for exactly how people could use NFTs to launder money. If this is happening, would you expect to see a bunch of NFTs go from nothing, then sell for a large amount, then not move again? Oh also I think you’d also have to declare capital gains tax to do it properly, but that’s better than laundering money via income.
  - riffraff 5y ago
    > Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious. it is supposedly something that happens often with physical art, and there have been a lot of attempts to prevent it via regulation, e.g. the AML Standards for Art Market Operators[0]. In crypto space as usual we're at the "frontier" state where lack of regulations allow shady behaviours, and they will until the authorities catch up and crypto becomes "normalized". [0] "Once purchased, the art can disappear from view for years, even decades." https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2019/03/art-and-money-laundering/ https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2019/03/art-and-money-la...

by cm2012 5y ago

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

xenihn 5y ago

The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.

trophycase 5y ago
It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it becomes glaringly obvious. Using defi is how I would imagine typing in a chatroom or accessing a website felt back when the web was just in its infancy.
- sizzle 5y ago
  I love defi simply for the fact that I hold the keys to my money, not banks or a central entity.
- koonsolo 5y ago
  You are 100% right, and also downvoted. Welcome to HackerNews, a place that should think startup-like progressive, but really is technology conservative.
- atatatat 5y ago
  Ethereum? Or Ethereum2?
- weatherlight 5y ago
  the problem with crypto is that people see it and treat it as an investment and a commodity, not an actual currency. People horde crypto and don't spend it.

wesleywt 5y ago

What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Mostly based on speculation.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nuerow 5y ago
> What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Why does that surprise you? As the article from this discussion shows, there is strong evidence supporting the idea that crypto in general "it's just a big scheme".
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > "it's just a big scheme". Who's doing the scheming, I wonder?
  - nuerow 5y ago
    > Who's doing the scheming, I wonder? As with all pump-and-dump schemes, obviously those who pump it. Let's put it differently: what concrete, real-world, tangible value is there driving crypto speculation? Is there any at all? It boggles the mind how crypto proponents try to frame crypto in general and their own investments in particular as something that has this sky-high intrinsic value based only on potential popularity and a belief that they can pump them up indefinitely.
    - ur-whale 5y ago
      > what concrete, real-world, tangible value is there driving crypto speculation? For a possible answer, please read my other post in this thread.
      - nuerow 5y ago
        > For a possible answer, please read my other post in this thread. You've posted an awful lot of messages, but the only one remotely related to crypto's intrinsic value was the following post which makes no relevant point at all. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28902307 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28902307 In it, your main thesis is that you allege that crypto offers a way to "completely shield value", which is outright and patently false. Even so, trying to portray crypto in general and BTC in particular as serving as a store of value is an absurd notion from the start, as it's renowned for being highly volatile and so prone to crashes that halve it's value that crypto's hardline proponents already invented the concept of periodic corrections.

OnlineGladiator 5y ago

> It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart... Nobody is universally brilliant. Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics. Maybe NFTs are just the modern alchemy, as they do seem to turn random items into digital gold.

garbagetime 5y ago
>Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics I don't think that was an act of unbrilliance. It just didn't happen to work out.
- louloulou 5y ago
  I mean splitting and fusing atomic nuclei is something that happens all the time. Hard to claim he was wrong, just a few orders of magnitude off on the energy required to do it.
- eternalban 5y ago
  > It just didn't happen to work out. Nobody is privy to the full content of Newton's mind and his mental processes. One could also argue that his metaphysical preoccupations positively influenced his scientific accomplishments. Heck, at a meta level, is not Newtonian Physics intellectual 'Gold' end result of processing the 'Lead' in his head? That's alchemy.
ur-whale 5y ago
He also tried his hand at investing, without much success: https://www.businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-lost-a-fortune-on-englands-hottest-stock-2016-1?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-lost-a-fortune-...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
Ekaros 5y ago
Was it really alchemy or proto-chemistry? After all Newton lived in time when chemistry was only starting to be defined. And it took quite a while to come up with proper ideas.

ur-whale 5y ago

>It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. How is this relevant to a Bitcoin conversation?

ekianjo 5y ago

> It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop. Many things have actually no intrinsic value (like art) yet don't lose value over time that much.

DantesKite 5y ago
Art has value as a money laundering scheme and so do NFT’s. Although I’m hopeful maybe someone will find a decent use case for them.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > Art has value as a money laundering scheme That's IMO a very reductive view. While - true - art is used to launder money, that's not the only thing that lends it value. If that wasn't the case, there wouldn't be any brick and mortar museums left in the world and you could buy the original Mona Lisa for a dime - since everyone else would have a 16k x 16k reproduction of it, essentially identical to the original. Somehow, that does not happen.
Ekaros 5y ago
Depends on what art we are talking about. Plenty of it has lost value over time. Ofc, what is popular and big name keeps being popular. But outside that group there is lot of examples that aren't as valuable as it was at one point.

wickoff 5y ago

I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT. One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.

stickyricky 5y ago
How? You can't see if I own any NFTs right now. You can't see it in gmail. You can't see it on facebook. You don't get ads saying "rich NFT holders in your area!". No one knows or cares if you own an NFT.
- altrum 5y ago
  That’s only because the infrastructure for it isn’t there yet. Doesn’t mean it won’t eventually happen
- wickoff 5y ago
  Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures. Then what if someone mints new NFTs based on (say) the same images used for the cryptopunks cartoons? You could get your extremely online bragging rights for an affordable price.
    - altrum 5y ago
      Except you can't, practically speaking--as the price is baked into the "brand".
      - graeme 5y ago
        But you’d get twitter verification. Or will twitter only recognize one chain for NFTs? How do you handle someone minting multiple nfts of the same image on different chains?

riffraff 5y ago

Oh but NFTs have a very clear value proposition: money laundering. They literally have no value other than what is attributed to them, so if you want to clean up some money you just have to buy an NFT with legit money for X, then sell it to yourself using less-than-legit money. Now you own all legit money, and have only spent some minor transaction fees.

sizzle 5y ago
Wow that means OpenSea is like the Silk Road of money laundering.
graeme 5y ago
Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious. But thank you, that’s the most concise explanation I’ve seen for exactly how people could use NFTs to launder money. If this is happening, would you expect to see a bunch of NFTs go from nothing, then sell for a large amount, then not move again? Oh also I think you’d also have to declare capital gains tax to do it properly, but that’s better than laundering money via income.
- riffraff 5y ago
  > Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious. it is supposedly something that happens often with physical art, and there have been a lot of attempts to prevent it via regulation, e.g. the AML Standards for Art Market Operators[0]. In crypto space as usual we're at the "frontier" state where lack of regulations allow shady behaviours, and they will until the authorities catch up and crypto becomes "normalized". [0] "Once purchased, the art can disappear from view for years, even decades." https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2019/03/art-and-money-laundering/ https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2019/03/art-and-money-la...