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I’ve seen the content reported here in two other places, both which emphasize a “surprised” aspect. However, the link article includes this statement which (to

by Mtinie 5y ago

I’ve seen the content reported here in two other places, both which emphasize a “surprised” aspect. However, the link article includes this statement which (to me) indicates that the surprise, if one truly existed, was the test, not the existence of the missile platform: “At a 2019 parade, China showcased advancing weaponry including its hypersonic missile, known as the DF-17.”

mytailorisrich 5y ago
It's one thing to parade something (which may be a mockup), it's quite another to demonstrate capability. The article suggests that the surprise, if it is real, is the demonstrated capability.
imeron 5y ago
https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/introducing-the-df-17-chinas-newly-tested-ballistic-missile-armed-with-a-hypersonic-glide-vehicle/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/introducing-the-df-17-chinas... This article is from 2017, including mentions of testing.
dogma1138 5y ago
The surprise was the delivery vehicle/method it was launched into orbit and then deorbited to hit a target. Basically what China just showed is that they are capable of parking these in orbit which would both greatly increase their effective range as well as reduce the signature making them far harder to detect and intercept. It’s basically another Sputnik moment for the US. When the USSR launched Sputnik the US was scared that they’ll launch a bunch of nukes that they would be able to bring down on the US at a moments notice. Keep in mind that back then ICBMs weren’t really a thing yet not to mention a full nuclear triad and that the US had to mainly rely on its bombers to deliver nuclear weapons and its defense primarily focused on shooting incoming soviet bombers. If China parks a bunch of these in space it would mean that any US naval task force or ground force anywhere in the world is now at risk. That’s quite a tectonic shift in the balance of power, and if anything these articles probably downplaying the actual impact something like this can have.
- tuatoru 5y ago
  So, time for the US to kick in a few bucks to accelerate the development of Starship/Super Heavy? Having large numbers of "satellite disabling" satellites is feasible with SH/SS. Melting the electronics with a high powered maser pulse, matching orbit and snipping the red wire...probably lots of ways to disable a satellite that don't start Kessler Syndrome, once getting a satellite into orbit is cheap. Also time to build more nuclear submarines.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    More SSBNs won’t help in this case. The intent isn’t to counter the US nuclear capability but to greatly restrict their conventional power projection. The US heavily relies on its naval assets especially its aircraft carriers to project power across the globe. I suspect the American answer would be two fold both increase detection and interception capabilities and attempt to gain further foothold in the region by establishing more bases in places like the Philippines and even potentially Vietnam (the irony would be quite thick on this one). China is probably betting that the US would have hard time expanding its presence on the ground even in places like South Korea where it already has large presence due to the fears of escalating regional tensions further. It would also allow China to push the narrative of the US being the aggressor. And pretty much the place that the US would like to protect the most is going to be off limits to their expansion as the US establishing a Guam or Okinawa size presence in Taiwan would very likely lead to the invasion they would want to prevent.
    - worrycue 5y ago
      > The US heavily relies on its naval assets especially its aircraft carriers to project power across the globe. Maybe that should change. Carriers were king in the era before missiles. In this day and age I wonder how effective carriers really are against adversaries with high tech missiles. I also wonder if the US will come up with their own version and test it by hitting a dummy target in the SCS - signalling it’s meant for the Chinese Navy; it would be funny if everything China comes up to weaken the power of the US Navy was in turn used to weaken their Navy should they try to invade Taiwan.

by Mtinie 5y ago

mytailorisrich 5y ago

It's one thing to parade something (which may be a mockup), it's quite another to demonstrate capability. The article suggests that the surprise, if it is real, is the demonstrated capability.

imeron 5y ago

https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/introducing-the-df-17-chinas-newly-tested-ballistic-missile-armed-with-a-hypersonic-glide-vehicle/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/introducing-the-df-17-chinas... This article is from 2017, including mentions of testing.

dogma1138 5y ago

The surprise was the delivery vehicle/method it was launched into orbit and then deorbited to hit a target. Basically what China just showed is that they are capable of parking these in orbit which would both greatly increase their effective range as well as reduce the signature making them far harder to detect and intercept. It’s basically another Sputnik moment for the US. When the USSR launched Sputnik the US was scared that they’ll launch a bunch of nukes that they would be able to bring down on the US at a moments notice. Keep in mind that back then ICBMs weren’t really a thing yet not to mention a full nuclear triad and that the US had to mainly rely on its bombers to deliver nuclear weapons and its defense primarily focused on shooting incoming soviet bombers. If China parks a bunch of these in space it would mean that any US naval task force or ground force anywhere in the world is now at risk. That’s quite a tectonic shift in the balance of power, and if anything these articles probably downplaying the actual impact something like this can have.

tuatoru 5y ago
So, time for the US to kick in a few bucks to accelerate the development of Starship/Super Heavy? Having large numbers of "satellite disabling" satellites is feasible with SH/SS. Melting the electronics with a high powered maser pulse, matching orbit and snipping the red wire...probably lots of ways to disable a satellite that don't start Kessler Syndrome, once getting a satellite into orbit is cheap. Also time to build more nuclear submarines.
- dogma1138 5y ago
  More SSBNs won’t help in this case. The intent isn’t to counter the US nuclear capability but to greatly restrict their conventional power projection. The US heavily relies on its naval assets especially its aircraft carriers to project power across the globe. I suspect the American answer would be two fold both increase detection and interception capabilities and attempt to gain further foothold in the region by establishing more bases in places like the Philippines and even potentially Vietnam (the irony would be quite thick on this one). China is probably betting that the US would have hard time expanding its presence on the ground even in places like South Korea where it already has large presence due to the fears of escalating regional tensions further. It would also allow China to push the narrative of the US being the aggressor. And pretty much the place that the US would like to protect the most is going to be off limits to their expansion as the US establishing a Guam or Okinawa size presence in Taiwan would very likely lead to the invasion they would want to prevent.
  - worrycue 5y ago
    > The US heavily relies on its naval assets especially its aircraft carriers to project power across the globe. Maybe that should change. Carriers were king in the era before missiles. In this day and age I wonder how effective carriers really are against adversaries with high tech missiles. I also wonder if the US will come up with their own version and test it by hitting a dummy target in the SCS - signalling it’s meant for the Chinese Navy; it would be funny if everything China comes up to weaken the power of the US Navy was in turn used to weaken their Navy should they try to invade Taiwan.